Polymarket has started accepting real bets from select US users as the crypto-based prediction platform tests its American exchange ahead of a full reopening next month.
The platform is running what founder Shayne Coplan calls a beta test, matching actual trades between users on event outcomes.
Speaking at Cantor Fitzgerald's Crypto & AI Infrastructure Conference in Miami, Coplan said the exchange is “actually live and operational” with people being onboarded to place bets on real contracts.
The soft launch marks Polymarket's return to American soil after leaving in 2022 when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) hit the company with a $1.4 million fine for operating without proper licenses. The platform spent three years offshore before buying QCX, a firm with CFTC approval to run a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
Competition Intensifies for Prediction Market Share
The timing puts Polymarket in a crowded field. Kalshi has served US customers for years, while FanDuel announced Wednesday it will roll out its own prediction market product in December, partnering the derivatives giant CME. The sector has attracted renewed attention after Polymarket processed billions of dollars in election-related bets during last year's presidential race.
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Earlier this month, two cryptocurrency exchanges also announced plans to enter the space: Crypto.com made its move in early November, followed last week by Gemini, the exchange founded by the Winklevoss brothers.
In addition, Polymarket revealed a partnership with Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, becoming the financial news site's exclusive prediction market partner. Coplan said “deep integrations” between the platforms are coming soon.
The company positions itself differently from traditional sportsbooks by letting users trade directly with each other rather than betting against the house. In Polymarket's exchange model, users set their own prices and can take either side of an outcome, similar to how stock exchanges operate.
“I don't think anyone would argue that the sports book model is the optimal model,” Coplan said. “There's a monopoly on pricing. You trade against the house every time and they can set whatever prices they want and to make matters worse, if you make any money, they can ban you.”
Regulatory Path Clears After Federal Scrutiny
Federal agencies dropped separate investigations into Polymarket earlier this year, removing obstacles to a US return. The Justice Department and CFTC both closed their probes before the company acquired QCX's regulatory approvals.
Coplan claims the company moved faster than any previous entrant in getting a CFTC-approved exchange operational. “Definitely a difficult task, but our team has been incredible and made that happen,” he said.
The platform has been shopping a funding round that would value it between $12 billion and $15 billion. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, committed up to $2 billion in October. That investment made the 26-year-old Coplan one of the youngest self-made billionaires.
Whether Polymarket can convert its offshore user base and brand recognition into domestic market share remains uncertain. The platform must compete against entrenched gambling operators with established customer bases while navigating state-by-state wagering regulations that vary across the country.
Not to mention another pressing issue that many seem to overlook: is this even trading anymore?
