Global financial markets are in havoc, as the U.S. election appears to be sealed for Donald Trump. The Five Thirty Eight presidential projection model is showing that the likelihood of the Republican candidate to become the 45th President of the United States. The news comes as a surprise to the equity markets as a win for Trump was seen as a remote possibility.
The presidential race has been one of the tightest since the infamous electoral college and popular vote split in 2000 between President George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore. Unexpectedly, Hilary Clinton is very likely to have lost the popular vote as some key Democratic strongholds in past elections have fallen to Donald Trump.
While the financial markets have been very volatile and from the looks of it we are likely to register the best day in terms of trading volumes, overnight trading has been relatively smooth for now. No major outages amongst brokerages have been reported. While some systems performed slower than normal, this is to be expected in such volatile market conditions.
Some brokers have trouble processing orders as the trading screens have frozen, and slippage has been apparent, but the moves have been quite rampant:
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) November 9, 2016
After Brexit earlier this year, pollsters have been proven wrong again. With the Huffington Post and The New York Times being among the most optimistic predictors for a Hilary Clinton win. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com and RealClearPolitics have been the stand outs that have had their doubts about the final outcome.
— Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) November 9, 2016
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Looking at the foreign exchange market, the biggest underperformed has been the Mexican Peso, with other emerging market currencies also taking a tumble.
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) November 9, 2016
As the European markets are nearing their open, some doubts remain about the prospects for financial markets going forward. While for now we are seeing a nosedive in a similar fashion to the Brexit vote in June, we might as well see a full recovery in a couple of weeks, just as it happened after Brexit.
— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) November 9, 2016
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 9, 2016