With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoning its intentions to maintain a minimum exchange rate floor in the EUR/CHF currency pair, the foreign exchange market has experienced its most volatile day in recent history, prompting a number of brokerages to suspend trading on most currency pairs involving the Swiss franc.
With Liquidity
Liquidity
The term liquidity refers to the process, speed, and ease of which a given asset or security can be converted into cash. Notably, liquidity surmises a retention in market price, with the most liquid assets representing cash. The most liquid asset of all is cash itself. · In economics, liquidity is defined by how efficiently and quickly an asset can be converted into usable cash without materially affecting its market price. · Nothing is more liquid than cash, while other assets represent varying degrees of liquidity. This can be differentiated as market liquidity or accounting liquidity.· Liquidity refers to a tangible construct that can be measures. The most common ways to do so include a current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio. What is the Definition of Liquidity? Liquidity is a common definition used in investing, banking, or the financial services space. Its primary function is to ascertain how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? By definition, in terms of liquidity, cash is unequivocally seen as the most liquid asset in an economic sense. This is due to its widespread acceptance and ease of conversion into other assets, forms of cash, or currencies, etc. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash, i.e., financial liquidity. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. By extension, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Liquidity Spectrum Liquid assets can be defined primarily as either cash on hand or simply an asset that can be easily or readily converted into usable cash. It is important to note that cash is not uniformly liquid for several reasons. The below examples encompass all types of assets and their corresponding level of liquidity. Examples of Liquid Assets or Securities A good example of this is the US dollar, which is recognized or accepted globally, and backed by the US government or Federal Reserve Bank. Other major forms of cash include Euros, or major currencies. This differs notably from the legal tender in many emerging countries or others for political or economic reasons. Cash aside, assets such as stocks or equities, bonds and other securities, money market assets, marketable securities, US treasuries or T-notes, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a savings account, and mutual funds serve as the most liquid assets. These are generally assumed to be quick assets. Each of these assets can be converted into cash either instantaneously, or via any brokerage platform, exchange, etc., often in as little as minutes or seconds. As such, these assets are liquid. Examples of Illiquid Assets or Securities Conversely, illiquid assets still retain importance and value, though are much more difficult to convert into cash. Common examples of this include land or real estate, intellectual property, or other forms of capital such as equipment or machinery. In the examples above, liquid assets are assumed to be convertible into cash without substantial fees or delays in time. Illiquid assets on the other hand often suffer from fees or additional conversion costs, processing times, ultimately creating a price disparity. The best example of an illiquid asset is a house. For many individuals this is the most valuable asset they will own in their entire lives. However, selling a house typically requires taxes, realtor fees, and other costs, in addition to time. Real estate or land also takes much longer to exchange into cash, relative to other assets. Types of Liquidity Overall, liquidity is a broad term that needs to be defined by two different measures: market liquidity and accounting liquidity. Both measures deal with different constructs or entities entirely, though are useful metrics with regards to individuals or financial markets. Market Liquidity Market liquidity is a broader term that is used by a market maker to measure the ease of which assets can be bought and sold at transparent prices, namely across exchanges, stock markets, or other financial sectors. This can include among others, a real estate or property market, market for fine arts and collectable, and other goods. Market Liquidity Example As mentioned above, certain financial markets are much more liquid than others. The degree to which stocks from large companies or foreign currencies can be exchanged is much easier than finding a readily available market for antiques, collectables, or other capital, regardless of utility. Overall, a stock market, financial brokerage, or exchange is considered to have the high market liquidity. This is because the difference between both the bid and ask prices between parties is very low. The lower the spread between these two prices, the more liquid a given market is. Additionally, low liquidity refers to a higher spread between two prices. Why Liquidity Varies and What Does Liquidity Mean in Stocks? Every asset has a variable level of liquidity meaning this can change depending on what is being analyzed. One can define liquidity in stocks or stock markets in the same way as in foreign exchange markets, brokers, commodities exchanges, and crypto exchanges. Additionally, how large the market is will also dictate liquidity. The foreign exchange market for example is currently the largest by trading volume with high liquidity due to cash flows. This is hardly surprising given that forms of cash or currencies are being exchanged. What is Liquidity in Stocks? A stock's liquidity refers to how rapidly shares of a stock can be bought or sold without largely impacting a stock price. By definition, liquidity in stocks varies for a number of reasons. Stocks with low liquidity may be difficult to sell and may cause you to take a bigger loss if you cannot sell the shares when you want to. In finance, the most liquid assets are always the most popular. By extension, if a spread between buyers and sellers increases, the market is considered to be less liquid. A good example of this is the real estate or property market. While highly valuable, there are large disparities between the purchase price and selling price of property, as well as the time associated in making these transactions, and additional fees incurred by other parties. Liquidity providers play a key role in this regard. Accounting Liquidity Unlike market liquidity, accounting liquidity measures something different entirely. Accounting liquidity is a measure by which either an individual or entity can meet their respective current financial obligations with the current liquid assets available to them. This includes paying off debts, overhead, or any other fixed costs associated with a business. Accounting liquidity is a functional comparison between one’s current liquid assets and their current liabilities. In the United States and other countries, companies and individuals have to reconcile accounting on a yearly basis. Accounting liquidity is an excellent measure that captures financial obligations due in a year. Accounting Liquidity Example Accounting liquidity itself can be differentiated by several ratios, controlling for how liquid assets are. These measures are useful tools for not just the individual or company in focus but for others that are trying to ascertain current financial health.As an example, accounting liquidity can measure any company’s current financial assets and compare them to its financial obligations. If there is a large disparity between these figures, or much more assets than obligations, a company can be considered to have a strong depth of liquidity.How to Calculate Liquidity Liquidity is of importance to investors, financial market participants, analysts, or even for an investment strategy. Calculating liquidity is a measure of firm or individual’s ability to utilize or harness current liquid assets to current cover short-term debt. This can be achieved using a total of four formulas: the current ratio, quick ratio, acid-test variation, and cash ratio. Current Ratio The current ratio is the easiest measure due to its lack of complexity. Quite simply, the current ratio measures a firm or individual’s current assets or those than can be sold within a calendar year, weighed against all current liabilities. Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities If the current ratio’s value is greater than 1, then the entity in question can be assumed to reconcile its financial obligations using its current liquid assets. Highly liquid assets will correspond to higher numbers in this regard. Conversely, any number less than 1 indicates that current liquid assets are not enough to cover short-term obligations. Quick Ratio A quick ratio is a slightly more complex way of measuring accounting liquidity via a balance sheet. Unlike the current ratio, the quick ratio excludes current assets that are not as liquid as cash, cash equivalents, or other shorter-term investments. The quick ratio can be defined below by the following: Quick Ratio = (Cash or Cash Equivalents + Shorter-Term Investments + Accounts Receivable)/Current Liabilities Acid-Test Ratio The acid-test ratio is a variation of the quick ratio. The acid-test ratio seeks to deduct inventory from current assets, serving as a traditionally broader measure that is more forgiving to individuals or entities. Acid-Test Ratio = (Current Assets – Inventories – Prepaid Costs)/Current Liabilities Cash Ratio Finally, the cash ratio further isolates current assets, looking to measure only liquid assets that are designated as cash or cash equivalents. In this sense, the cash ratio is the most precise of the other liquidity ratios, excluding accounts receivable, inventories, or other assets. A more precise measure has its uses, namely regarding assessing financial strength in the face of an emergency, i.e., an unforeseen and time sensitive event. The cash ratio can help measure an entity or individual’s hypothesized solvency in the face of unexpected scenarios, events, etc. As such, the cash ratio is defined below: Cash Ratio = Cash and Cash Equivalents/Current Liabilities The cash ratio is not simply a doomsday tool but a highly practical measure when determining market value. In the financial services space, even large companies or profitable institutions can find themselves at liquidity risk due to unexpected events beyond their control. Why is Liquidity Important and Why it Matters to You? Liquidity is very important for not just financial markets but for individuals and investors. Liquid markets benefit all market participants and make it easier to buy and sell securities, stocks, collectables, etc. On an individual level, this is important for personal finance, as ordinary investors are able to better take advantage of trading opportunities. Additionally, high liquidity promotes financial health in companies in the same way it does for individuals. Conclusion – What Does Liquidity Mean? What is liquidity? This metric is a commonly used as a measure in the investing, banking, or financial services space. Liquidity determines how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? – cash, stocks, real estate. Of all assets, cash or money is the most liquid, meaning it is the easiest to utilize. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. Conversely, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Frequently Asked Questions About Liquidity Is Liquidity Good or Bad? The term liquidity refers to a measure and is neither good nor bad but is instead a metric of how convertible an asset is to cash. However, high liquidity is associated with lower risk, while a liquid stock is more likely to keep its value when being traded.Is a Home a Liquid Asset? A home or properly is not considered to be a liquid asset. Selling any property can incur additional costs and take a long amount of time. Additionally, there is often a price disparity from the time of purchase, meaning a seller may not even get its original market value back at the time of the sale. Why Are Stocks Liquid? Stocks are some of the most liquid assets in financial markets because these assets can be converted to cash in a short period of time in the event of any financial emergency. Is Tesla a Liquid Stock? Tesla is a liquid stock and while hugely volatile, is an integral part of the NASDAQ and is a globally recognized company. Additionally, the company is a popular single-stock CFD offering at many brokerages, with very high volumes. Is a Pension a Liquid Asset? Certain pensions are liquid assets once you have reached a retirement age. Until you are eligible to withdraw or collect a pension, without early withdrawal penalty, it is not considered a liquid asset.
The term liquidity refers to the process, speed, and ease of which a given asset or security can be converted into cash. Notably, liquidity surmises a retention in market price, with the most liquid assets representing cash. The most liquid asset of all is cash itself. · In economics, liquidity is defined by how efficiently and quickly an asset can be converted into usable cash without materially affecting its market price. · Nothing is more liquid than cash, while other assets represent varying degrees of liquidity. This can be differentiated as market liquidity or accounting liquidity.· Liquidity refers to a tangible construct that can be measures. The most common ways to do so include a current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio. What is the Definition of Liquidity? Liquidity is a common definition used in investing, banking, or the financial services space. Its primary function is to ascertain how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? By definition, in terms of liquidity, cash is unequivocally seen as the most liquid asset in an economic sense. This is due to its widespread acceptance and ease of conversion into other assets, forms of cash, or currencies, etc. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash, i.e., financial liquidity. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. By extension, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Liquidity Spectrum Liquid assets can be defined primarily as either cash on hand or simply an asset that can be easily or readily converted into usable cash. It is important to note that cash is not uniformly liquid for several reasons. The below examples encompass all types of assets and their corresponding level of liquidity. Examples of Liquid Assets or Securities A good example of this is the US dollar, which is recognized or accepted globally, and backed by the US government or Federal Reserve Bank. Other major forms of cash include Euros, or major currencies. This differs notably from the legal tender in many emerging countries or others for political or economic reasons. Cash aside, assets such as stocks or equities, bonds and other securities, money market assets, marketable securities, US treasuries or T-notes, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a savings account, and mutual funds serve as the most liquid assets. These are generally assumed to be quick assets. Each of these assets can be converted into cash either instantaneously, or via any brokerage platform, exchange, etc., often in as little as minutes or seconds. As such, these assets are liquid. Examples of Illiquid Assets or Securities Conversely, illiquid assets still retain importance and value, though are much more difficult to convert into cash. Common examples of this include land or real estate, intellectual property, or other forms of capital such as equipment or machinery. In the examples above, liquid assets are assumed to be convertible into cash without substantial fees or delays in time. Illiquid assets on the other hand often suffer from fees or additional conversion costs, processing times, ultimately creating a price disparity. The best example of an illiquid asset is a house. For many individuals this is the most valuable asset they will own in their entire lives. However, selling a house typically requires taxes, realtor fees, and other costs, in addition to time. Real estate or land also takes much longer to exchange into cash, relative to other assets. Types of Liquidity Overall, liquidity is a broad term that needs to be defined by two different measures: market liquidity and accounting liquidity. Both measures deal with different constructs or entities entirely, though are useful metrics with regards to individuals or financial markets. Market Liquidity Market liquidity is a broader term that is used by a market maker to measure the ease of which assets can be bought and sold at transparent prices, namely across exchanges, stock markets, or other financial sectors. This can include among others, a real estate or property market, market for fine arts and collectable, and other goods. Market Liquidity Example As mentioned above, certain financial markets are much more liquid than others. The degree to which stocks from large companies or foreign currencies can be exchanged is much easier than finding a readily available market for antiques, collectables, or other capital, regardless of utility. Overall, a stock market, financial brokerage, or exchange is considered to have the high market liquidity. This is because the difference between both the bid and ask prices between parties is very low. The lower the spread between these two prices, the more liquid a given market is. Additionally, low liquidity refers to a higher spread between two prices. Why Liquidity Varies and What Does Liquidity Mean in Stocks? Every asset has a variable level of liquidity meaning this can change depending on what is being analyzed. One can define liquidity in stocks or stock markets in the same way as in foreign exchange markets, brokers, commodities exchanges, and crypto exchanges. Additionally, how large the market is will also dictate liquidity. The foreign exchange market for example is currently the largest by trading volume with high liquidity due to cash flows. This is hardly surprising given that forms of cash or currencies are being exchanged. What is Liquidity in Stocks? A stock's liquidity refers to how rapidly shares of a stock can be bought or sold without largely impacting a stock price. By definition, liquidity in stocks varies for a number of reasons. Stocks with low liquidity may be difficult to sell and may cause you to take a bigger loss if you cannot sell the shares when you want to. In finance, the most liquid assets are always the most popular. By extension, if a spread between buyers and sellers increases, the market is considered to be less liquid. A good example of this is the real estate or property market. While highly valuable, there are large disparities between the purchase price and selling price of property, as well as the time associated in making these transactions, and additional fees incurred by other parties. Liquidity providers play a key role in this regard. Accounting Liquidity Unlike market liquidity, accounting liquidity measures something different entirely. Accounting liquidity is a measure by which either an individual or entity can meet their respective current financial obligations with the current liquid assets available to them. This includes paying off debts, overhead, or any other fixed costs associated with a business. Accounting liquidity is a functional comparison between one’s current liquid assets and their current liabilities. In the United States and other countries, companies and individuals have to reconcile accounting on a yearly basis. Accounting liquidity is an excellent measure that captures financial obligations due in a year. Accounting Liquidity Example Accounting liquidity itself can be differentiated by several ratios, controlling for how liquid assets are. These measures are useful tools for not just the individual or company in focus but for others that are trying to ascertain current financial health.As an example, accounting liquidity can measure any company’s current financial assets and compare them to its financial obligations. If there is a large disparity between these figures, or much more assets than obligations, a company can be considered to have a strong depth of liquidity.How to Calculate Liquidity Liquidity is of importance to investors, financial market participants, analysts, or even for an investment strategy. Calculating liquidity is a measure of firm or individual’s ability to utilize or harness current liquid assets to current cover short-term debt. This can be achieved using a total of four formulas: the current ratio, quick ratio, acid-test variation, and cash ratio. Current Ratio The current ratio is the easiest measure due to its lack of complexity. Quite simply, the current ratio measures a firm or individual’s current assets or those than can be sold within a calendar year, weighed against all current liabilities. Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities If the current ratio’s value is greater than 1, then the entity in question can be assumed to reconcile its financial obligations using its current liquid assets. Highly liquid assets will correspond to higher numbers in this regard. Conversely, any number less than 1 indicates that current liquid assets are not enough to cover short-term obligations. Quick Ratio A quick ratio is a slightly more complex way of measuring accounting liquidity via a balance sheet. Unlike the current ratio, the quick ratio excludes current assets that are not as liquid as cash, cash equivalents, or other shorter-term investments. The quick ratio can be defined below by the following: Quick Ratio = (Cash or Cash Equivalents + Shorter-Term Investments + Accounts Receivable)/Current Liabilities Acid-Test Ratio The acid-test ratio is a variation of the quick ratio. The acid-test ratio seeks to deduct inventory from current assets, serving as a traditionally broader measure that is more forgiving to individuals or entities. Acid-Test Ratio = (Current Assets – Inventories – Prepaid Costs)/Current Liabilities Cash Ratio Finally, the cash ratio further isolates current assets, looking to measure only liquid assets that are designated as cash or cash equivalents. In this sense, the cash ratio is the most precise of the other liquidity ratios, excluding accounts receivable, inventories, or other assets. A more precise measure has its uses, namely regarding assessing financial strength in the face of an emergency, i.e., an unforeseen and time sensitive event. The cash ratio can help measure an entity or individual’s hypothesized solvency in the face of unexpected scenarios, events, etc. As such, the cash ratio is defined below: Cash Ratio = Cash and Cash Equivalents/Current Liabilities The cash ratio is not simply a doomsday tool but a highly practical measure when determining market value. In the financial services space, even large companies or profitable institutions can find themselves at liquidity risk due to unexpected events beyond their control. Why is Liquidity Important and Why it Matters to You? Liquidity is very important for not just financial markets but for individuals and investors. Liquid markets benefit all market participants and make it easier to buy and sell securities, stocks, collectables, etc. On an individual level, this is important for personal finance, as ordinary investors are able to better take advantage of trading opportunities. Additionally, high liquidity promotes financial health in companies in the same way it does for individuals. Conclusion – What Does Liquidity Mean? What is liquidity? This metric is a commonly used as a measure in the investing, banking, or financial services space. Liquidity determines how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? – cash, stocks, real estate. Of all assets, cash or money is the most liquid, meaning it is the easiest to utilize. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. Conversely, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Frequently Asked Questions About Liquidity Is Liquidity Good or Bad? The term liquidity refers to a measure and is neither good nor bad but is instead a metric of how convertible an asset is to cash. However, high liquidity is associated with lower risk, while a liquid stock is more likely to keep its value when being traded.Is a Home a Liquid Asset? A home or properly is not considered to be a liquid asset. Selling any property can incur additional costs and take a long amount of time. Additionally, there is often a price disparity from the time of purchase, meaning a seller may not even get its original market value back at the time of the sale. Why Are Stocks Liquid? Stocks are some of the most liquid assets in financial markets because these assets can be converted to cash in a short period of time in the event of any financial emergency. Is Tesla a Liquid Stock? Tesla is a liquid stock and while hugely volatile, is an integral part of the NASDAQ and is a globally recognized company. Additionally, the company is a popular single-stock CFD offering at many brokerages, with very high volumes. Is a Pension a Liquid Asset? Certain pensions are liquid assets once you have reached a retirement age. Until you are eligible to withdraw or collect a pension, without early withdrawal penalty, it is not considered a liquid asset.
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US dollar to the Swiss franc hourly chart, in the aftermath of the SNB decision
According to information obtained by Forex Magnates, major banks are still struggling to determine the appropriate fill rates and there might be differences between lowest printed rates vs. tradable rates. One bank has messaged its clients, "We are filling trades now, but may have to amend at worse rates later."
Prospects of Severe Financial Losses at Some Brokers
In the aftermath of the SNB announcement, UK listed brokerage, IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG), announced that it is facing losses of up to £30 million . The firm explained in a statement that its clients managed to execute their orders in Swiss franc currency pairs at much more favorable rates than the broker got at the same time.
The lack of appropriate risk controls for a substantial part of the industry means that in the aftermath of this massive Black Swan
Black Swan
A Black Swan event is most commonly associated with an unforeseen calamity or event. In its most basic form, this event results in disastrous consequences for multiple parties, markets, or individuals and are characterized as extraordinarily rare in frequency, yet are seemingly predictable in retrospect. In the foreign exchange space, the most noteworthy of these events in recent memory was the Swiss National Bank (SNB) crisis which roiled currency markets back on January 15, 2015.During this instance, the SNB abruptly decided to abandon the Swiss franc (CHF) currency peg with the euro, convulsing markets. In particular, the aforementioned cap was designed to keep the franc pegged at 1.20 to the euro in a bid to shield exporters and mitigate deflationary pressure. With the removal of this peg, the rate plunged to 0.86 francs per euro, before ultimately recovering slightly.The resulting move led to total wash outs of positions and margin calls that stressed brokers and traders alike. The aftermath led to an ongoing debate over negative balance protection and other lingering effects on the FX industry and has remained controversial ever since.Other Black Swan EventsIn addition to the SNB, other examples of Black Swan events include the US housing market crash in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe in which inflation rates peaked at 79.6 billion percent and the dot-com bubble of 2001.More recently, many experts have posited whether the outbreak of Covid-19 can be characterized as a Black Swan event, given its seismic influence on equity markets in March 2020. Ultimately, there is no uniform consensus on the pandemic being a Black Swan event given the crisis is still ongoing.
A Black Swan event is most commonly associated with an unforeseen calamity or event. In its most basic form, this event results in disastrous consequences for multiple parties, markets, or individuals and are characterized as extraordinarily rare in frequency, yet are seemingly predictable in retrospect. In the foreign exchange space, the most noteworthy of these events in recent memory was the Swiss National Bank (SNB) crisis which roiled currency markets back on January 15, 2015.During this instance, the SNB abruptly decided to abandon the Swiss franc (CHF) currency peg with the euro, convulsing markets. In particular, the aforementioned cap was designed to keep the franc pegged at 1.20 to the euro in a bid to shield exporters and mitigate deflationary pressure. With the removal of this peg, the rate plunged to 0.86 francs per euro, before ultimately recovering slightly.The resulting move led to total wash outs of positions and margin calls that stressed brokers and traders alike. The aftermath led to an ongoing debate over negative balance protection and other lingering effects on the FX industry and has remained controversial ever since.Other Black Swan EventsIn addition to the SNB, other examples of Black Swan events include the US housing market crash in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe in which inflation rates peaked at 79.6 billion percent and the dot-com bubble of 2001.More recently, many experts have posited whether the outbreak of Covid-19 can be characterized as a Black Swan event, given its seismic influence on equity markets in March 2020. Ultimately, there is no uniform consensus on the pandemic being a Black Swan event given the crisis is still ongoing.
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From the perspective of the liquidity providers, depending on the reputation and the regulatory environment within which their broker clients are regulated, substantial risks may yet surface. Then again, most offshore and unregulated entities are likely skipping LPs altogether and b-booking the bulk of their client order flows.
Liquidity Traps and High-Frequency Trading Shops
Commenting about the events this morning, the Managing Director of ThinkLiquidity, Jeff Wilkins, explained, "I have been on the phone all morning and banks have been reluctant to price because all liquidity disappeared. We are seeing pricing come back through a few venues. This is an unprecedented move, but somewhat expected. Without intervention this floor simply wouldn't hold.”
While Mr. Wilkins states that the SNB's move was somewhat expected, the bulk of traders involved in the currency markets with a number of retail brokers have differed in opinion. When Forex Magnates first reported about Saxo Bank raising EUR/CHF margin requirements in September 2014, 85.8% of the traders on Saxo Bank’s book were shorting the Swiss currency.
Positioning at eToro right after the EUR/CHF market was frozen
The picture has been similar across a number of other brokers - at the time 88.27% of OANDA’s and 98.9% of FxPro’s EUR/CHF traders were wrong-footed, and this number has only increased since September, according to Forex Magnates' sources and to the regularly updated publicly available graphs from major brokerages.
Rumors about the lowest prints prompting distress at a number of high-frequency trading shops are sending a strong message to the industry - the most liquid market in the world is not protected from a ‘Flash Crash’ event.
The CEO and co-founder of London-based peer-to-peer foreign currency exchange, Kantox, Philippe Gelis, shared with Forex Magnates' reporters, “The huge exchange rate movements in the wake of the SNB announcement, have undoubtedly been largely amplified by algorithmic trading.”
“Financial markets are now more dependent on decisions processed by computers and algorithms than decisions taken by humans. When a central bank decides to modify its policy, for example by decreasing the interest rate, thousands of computers globally react in a fraction of a second, creating a wave of selling or buying positions,” he explained.
An agency model broker shared with Forex Magnates that the EUR/CHF low which was printed this morning was around 0.8058, while on the USD/CHF pair the bottom was at 0.7124.
Fortress Prime’s CEO, Mitch Eaglstein, shared with Forex Magnates, “We have proper pricing now but liquidity is quite limited as the banks are just now starting to accept orders again. Once the news hit the street the banks began rejecting orders. This is one of the most significant moves in recent times so it is quite understandable for the banks to react the way they did.”
When banks reject trades, brokers either are unable to hedge, or execute trades at prices that don't exist in the market, making them vulnerable to arbitrage trades.
“The platforms handled the volume just fine, but the liquidity providers weren't feeding into the order book. That's what Direct Market Access (DMA) means, so it's part of the game. This is a good time to encourage customers to not use excessive leverage,” CEO and co-founder of Darwinex, Juan Colon, stated to Forex Magnates.
According to data from the foreign exchange trading matching system FastMatch, the second most traded pair on the currency markets today is the EUR/CHF.
Long-Term Industry Impact
Today’s SNB induced Black Swan is unlikely to be forgotten any time soon. Risk policies and leverage offerings, especially by prime of prime brokers, are likely to be put into major reviews. According to Jeff Wilkins, “The largest risk at the moment is the ability to collect negative account balances, especially for STP only brokers.”
To put it mildly, “unwise” leverage offerings in the likes of several hundreds to one are very damaging to the industry in the long run. Today has proven that not only clients of the brokers can suffer losses from extreme leverage. A single black swan event such as the Swiss-born we saw today, can cause long-term damage to a number of companies from the industry and even put some out of business.
The risk in the market not only stems from monetary damage, but also a reputational one.
The CEO of Fluent Trade Technologies, a company providing software to buy-side firms and prime brokers to monitor their clients, Gil Neihous, shared in a short interview with Forex Magnates, “This is the day that will change the way prime brokers and brokers are managing risk in what is a very fragmented market.” “Market makers who actually post the prices in the marketplace have left a lot of prime brokers exposed to huge risks and all losses caused by today’s event are yet to surface,” he continued.
Asked about the long-term implications of the Black Swan which hit the foreign exchange markets today, Mr. Neihous said, “If you think about a market where a prime broker extends billions of dollars in credit limits but has zero control over what the clients can do under their name, we are hearing a loud message today - ‘This has to stop.’ ”
According to sources close to Forex Magnates, algorithmic trading was hit particularly hard today, many companies having lost tens of millions of dollars on the foreign exchange markets on this Black Thursday.
Discussing market-making challenges for smaller firms, Mr. Neihous said, “A lot of small firms are doing market-making, anybody involved in this and did not have very strong risk controls, suffered huge losses.”
“Traditional rules like net open orders, net open positions are not sufficient in our view,” the CEO of Fluent Trade Technologies said.
“There is a need for other rules which indicate volatility, orders per second and some other more-behavioral rules other than the pure risk rules which avoid orders from reaching out to the market. One of the risks is not the actual position, but the orders associated to it which are on the market,” he explained.
If the prime brokers and the market participants do not take action themselves, the regulators will force them to. The impact of the costs on the market will be much more significant. The industry should gear itself up towards better controls for its own sake as it looks like the tumultuous times for the foreign exchange market are far from over.
With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoning its intentions to maintain a minimum exchange rate floor in the EUR/CHF currency pair, the foreign exchange market has experienced its most volatile day in recent history, prompting a number of brokerages to suspend trading on most currency pairs involving the Swiss franc.
With Liquidity
Liquidity
The term liquidity refers to the process, speed, and ease of which a given asset or security can be converted into cash. Notably, liquidity surmises a retention in market price, with the most liquid assets representing cash. The most liquid asset of all is cash itself. · In economics, liquidity is defined by how efficiently and quickly an asset can be converted into usable cash without materially affecting its market price. · Nothing is more liquid than cash, while other assets represent varying degrees of liquidity. This can be differentiated as market liquidity or accounting liquidity.· Liquidity refers to a tangible construct that can be measures. The most common ways to do so include a current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio. What is the Definition of Liquidity? Liquidity is a common definition used in investing, banking, or the financial services space. Its primary function is to ascertain how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? By definition, in terms of liquidity, cash is unequivocally seen as the most liquid asset in an economic sense. This is due to its widespread acceptance and ease of conversion into other assets, forms of cash, or currencies, etc. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash, i.e., financial liquidity. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. By extension, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Liquidity Spectrum Liquid assets can be defined primarily as either cash on hand or simply an asset that can be easily or readily converted into usable cash. It is important to note that cash is not uniformly liquid for several reasons. The below examples encompass all types of assets and their corresponding level of liquidity. Examples of Liquid Assets or Securities A good example of this is the US dollar, which is recognized or accepted globally, and backed by the US government or Federal Reserve Bank. Other major forms of cash include Euros, or major currencies. This differs notably from the legal tender in many emerging countries or others for political or economic reasons. Cash aside, assets such as stocks or equities, bonds and other securities, money market assets, marketable securities, US treasuries or T-notes, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a savings account, and mutual funds serve as the most liquid assets. These are generally assumed to be quick assets. Each of these assets can be converted into cash either instantaneously, or via any brokerage platform, exchange, etc., often in as little as minutes or seconds. As such, these assets are liquid. Examples of Illiquid Assets or Securities Conversely, illiquid assets still retain importance and value, though are much more difficult to convert into cash. Common examples of this include land or real estate, intellectual property, or other forms of capital such as equipment or machinery. In the examples above, liquid assets are assumed to be convertible into cash without substantial fees or delays in time. Illiquid assets on the other hand often suffer from fees or additional conversion costs, processing times, ultimately creating a price disparity. The best example of an illiquid asset is a house. For many individuals this is the most valuable asset they will own in their entire lives. However, selling a house typically requires taxes, realtor fees, and other costs, in addition to time. Real estate or land also takes much longer to exchange into cash, relative to other assets. Types of Liquidity Overall, liquidity is a broad term that needs to be defined by two different measures: market liquidity and accounting liquidity. Both measures deal with different constructs or entities entirely, though are useful metrics with regards to individuals or financial markets. Market Liquidity Market liquidity is a broader term that is used by a market maker to measure the ease of which assets can be bought and sold at transparent prices, namely across exchanges, stock markets, or other financial sectors. This can include among others, a real estate or property market, market for fine arts and collectable, and other goods. Market Liquidity Example As mentioned above, certain financial markets are much more liquid than others. The degree to which stocks from large companies or foreign currencies can be exchanged is much easier than finding a readily available market for antiques, collectables, or other capital, regardless of utility. Overall, a stock market, financial brokerage, or exchange is considered to have the high market liquidity. This is because the difference between both the bid and ask prices between parties is very low. The lower the spread between these two prices, the more liquid a given market is. Additionally, low liquidity refers to a higher spread between two prices. Why Liquidity Varies and What Does Liquidity Mean in Stocks? Every asset has a variable level of liquidity meaning this can change depending on what is being analyzed. One can define liquidity in stocks or stock markets in the same way as in foreign exchange markets, brokers, commodities exchanges, and crypto exchanges. Additionally, how large the market is will also dictate liquidity. The foreign exchange market for example is currently the largest by trading volume with high liquidity due to cash flows. This is hardly surprising given that forms of cash or currencies are being exchanged. What is Liquidity in Stocks? A stock's liquidity refers to how rapidly shares of a stock can be bought or sold without largely impacting a stock price. By definition, liquidity in stocks varies for a number of reasons. Stocks with low liquidity may be difficult to sell and may cause you to take a bigger loss if you cannot sell the shares when you want to. In finance, the most liquid assets are always the most popular. By extension, if a spread between buyers and sellers increases, the market is considered to be less liquid. A good example of this is the real estate or property market. While highly valuable, there are large disparities between the purchase price and selling price of property, as well as the time associated in making these transactions, and additional fees incurred by other parties. Liquidity providers play a key role in this regard. Accounting Liquidity Unlike market liquidity, accounting liquidity measures something different entirely. Accounting liquidity is a measure by which either an individual or entity can meet their respective current financial obligations with the current liquid assets available to them. This includes paying off debts, overhead, or any other fixed costs associated with a business. Accounting liquidity is a functional comparison between one’s current liquid assets and their current liabilities. In the United States and other countries, companies and individuals have to reconcile accounting on a yearly basis. Accounting liquidity is an excellent measure that captures financial obligations due in a year. Accounting Liquidity Example Accounting liquidity itself can be differentiated by several ratios, controlling for how liquid assets are. These measures are useful tools for not just the individual or company in focus but for others that are trying to ascertain current financial health.As an example, accounting liquidity can measure any company’s current financial assets and compare them to its financial obligations. If there is a large disparity between these figures, or much more assets than obligations, a company can be considered to have a strong depth of liquidity.How to Calculate Liquidity Liquidity is of importance to investors, financial market participants, analysts, or even for an investment strategy. Calculating liquidity is a measure of firm or individual’s ability to utilize or harness current liquid assets to current cover short-term debt. This can be achieved using a total of four formulas: the current ratio, quick ratio, acid-test variation, and cash ratio. Current Ratio The current ratio is the easiest measure due to its lack of complexity. Quite simply, the current ratio measures a firm or individual’s current assets or those than can be sold within a calendar year, weighed against all current liabilities. Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities If the current ratio’s value is greater than 1, then the entity in question can be assumed to reconcile its financial obligations using its current liquid assets. Highly liquid assets will correspond to higher numbers in this regard. Conversely, any number less than 1 indicates that current liquid assets are not enough to cover short-term obligations. Quick Ratio A quick ratio is a slightly more complex way of measuring accounting liquidity via a balance sheet. Unlike the current ratio, the quick ratio excludes current assets that are not as liquid as cash, cash equivalents, or other shorter-term investments. The quick ratio can be defined below by the following: Quick Ratio = (Cash or Cash Equivalents + Shorter-Term Investments + Accounts Receivable)/Current Liabilities Acid-Test Ratio The acid-test ratio is a variation of the quick ratio. The acid-test ratio seeks to deduct inventory from current assets, serving as a traditionally broader measure that is more forgiving to individuals or entities. Acid-Test Ratio = (Current Assets – Inventories – Prepaid Costs)/Current Liabilities Cash Ratio Finally, the cash ratio further isolates current assets, looking to measure only liquid assets that are designated as cash or cash equivalents. In this sense, the cash ratio is the most precise of the other liquidity ratios, excluding accounts receivable, inventories, or other assets. A more precise measure has its uses, namely regarding assessing financial strength in the face of an emergency, i.e., an unforeseen and time sensitive event. The cash ratio can help measure an entity or individual’s hypothesized solvency in the face of unexpected scenarios, events, etc. As such, the cash ratio is defined below: Cash Ratio = Cash and Cash Equivalents/Current Liabilities The cash ratio is not simply a doomsday tool but a highly practical measure when determining market value. In the financial services space, even large companies or profitable institutions can find themselves at liquidity risk due to unexpected events beyond their control. Why is Liquidity Important and Why it Matters to You? Liquidity is very important for not just financial markets but for individuals and investors. Liquid markets benefit all market participants and make it easier to buy and sell securities, stocks, collectables, etc. On an individual level, this is important for personal finance, as ordinary investors are able to better take advantage of trading opportunities. Additionally, high liquidity promotes financial health in companies in the same way it does for individuals. Conclusion – What Does Liquidity Mean? What is liquidity? This metric is a commonly used as a measure in the investing, banking, or financial services space. Liquidity determines how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? – cash, stocks, real estate. Of all assets, cash or money is the most liquid, meaning it is the easiest to utilize. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. Conversely, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Frequently Asked Questions About Liquidity Is Liquidity Good or Bad? The term liquidity refers to a measure and is neither good nor bad but is instead a metric of how convertible an asset is to cash. However, high liquidity is associated with lower risk, while a liquid stock is more likely to keep its value when being traded.Is a Home a Liquid Asset? A home or properly is not considered to be a liquid asset. Selling any property can incur additional costs and take a long amount of time. Additionally, there is often a price disparity from the time of purchase, meaning a seller may not even get its original market value back at the time of the sale. Why Are Stocks Liquid? Stocks are some of the most liquid assets in financial markets because these assets can be converted to cash in a short period of time in the event of any financial emergency. Is Tesla a Liquid Stock? Tesla is a liquid stock and while hugely volatile, is an integral part of the NASDAQ and is a globally recognized company. Additionally, the company is a popular single-stock CFD offering at many brokerages, with very high volumes. Is a Pension a Liquid Asset? Certain pensions are liquid assets once you have reached a retirement age. Until you are eligible to withdraw or collect a pension, without early withdrawal penalty, it is not considered a liquid asset.
The term liquidity refers to the process, speed, and ease of which a given asset or security can be converted into cash. Notably, liquidity surmises a retention in market price, with the most liquid assets representing cash. The most liquid asset of all is cash itself. · In economics, liquidity is defined by how efficiently and quickly an asset can be converted into usable cash without materially affecting its market price. · Nothing is more liquid than cash, while other assets represent varying degrees of liquidity. This can be differentiated as market liquidity or accounting liquidity.· Liquidity refers to a tangible construct that can be measures. The most common ways to do so include a current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio. What is the Definition of Liquidity? Liquidity is a common definition used in investing, banking, or the financial services space. Its primary function is to ascertain how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? By definition, in terms of liquidity, cash is unequivocally seen as the most liquid asset in an economic sense. This is due to its widespread acceptance and ease of conversion into other assets, forms of cash, or currencies, etc. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash, i.e., financial liquidity. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. By extension, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Liquidity Spectrum Liquid assets can be defined primarily as either cash on hand or simply an asset that can be easily or readily converted into usable cash. It is important to note that cash is not uniformly liquid for several reasons. The below examples encompass all types of assets and their corresponding level of liquidity. Examples of Liquid Assets or Securities A good example of this is the US dollar, which is recognized or accepted globally, and backed by the US government or Federal Reserve Bank. Other major forms of cash include Euros, or major currencies. This differs notably from the legal tender in many emerging countries or others for political or economic reasons. Cash aside, assets such as stocks or equities, bonds and other securities, money market assets, marketable securities, US treasuries or T-notes, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a savings account, and mutual funds serve as the most liquid assets. These are generally assumed to be quick assets. Each of these assets can be converted into cash either instantaneously, or via any brokerage platform, exchange, etc., often in as little as minutes or seconds. As such, these assets are liquid. Examples of Illiquid Assets or Securities Conversely, illiquid assets still retain importance and value, though are much more difficult to convert into cash. Common examples of this include land or real estate, intellectual property, or other forms of capital such as equipment or machinery. In the examples above, liquid assets are assumed to be convertible into cash without substantial fees or delays in time. Illiquid assets on the other hand often suffer from fees or additional conversion costs, processing times, ultimately creating a price disparity. The best example of an illiquid asset is a house. For many individuals this is the most valuable asset they will own in their entire lives. However, selling a house typically requires taxes, realtor fees, and other costs, in addition to time. Real estate or land also takes much longer to exchange into cash, relative to other assets. Types of Liquidity Overall, liquidity is a broad term that needs to be defined by two different measures: market liquidity and accounting liquidity. Both measures deal with different constructs or entities entirely, though are useful metrics with regards to individuals or financial markets. Market Liquidity Market liquidity is a broader term that is used by a market maker to measure the ease of which assets can be bought and sold at transparent prices, namely across exchanges, stock markets, or other financial sectors. This can include among others, a real estate or property market, market for fine arts and collectable, and other goods. Market Liquidity Example As mentioned above, certain financial markets are much more liquid than others. The degree to which stocks from large companies or foreign currencies can be exchanged is much easier than finding a readily available market for antiques, collectables, or other capital, regardless of utility. Overall, a stock market, financial brokerage, or exchange is considered to have the high market liquidity. This is because the difference between both the bid and ask prices between parties is very low. The lower the spread between these two prices, the more liquid a given market is. Additionally, low liquidity refers to a higher spread between two prices. Why Liquidity Varies and What Does Liquidity Mean in Stocks? Every asset has a variable level of liquidity meaning this can change depending on what is being analyzed. One can define liquidity in stocks or stock markets in the same way as in foreign exchange markets, brokers, commodities exchanges, and crypto exchanges. Additionally, how large the market is will also dictate liquidity. The foreign exchange market for example is currently the largest by trading volume with high liquidity due to cash flows. This is hardly surprising given that forms of cash or currencies are being exchanged. What is Liquidity in Stocks? A stock's liquidity refers to how rapidly shares of a stock can be bought or sold without largely impacting a stock price. By definition, liquidity in stocks varies for a number of reasons. Stocks with low liquidity may be difficult to sell and may cause you to take a bigger loss if you cannot sell the shares when you want to. In finance, the most liquid assets are always the most popular. By extension, if a spread between buyers and sellers increases, the market is considered to be less liquid. A good example of this is the real estate or property market. While highly valuable, there are large disparities between the purchase price and selling price of property, as well as the time associated in making these transactions, and additional fees incurred by other parties. Liquidity providers play a key role in this regard. Accounting Liquidity Unlike market liquidity, accounting liquidity measures something different entirely. Accounting liquidity is a measure by which either an individual or entity can meet their respective current financial obligations with the current liquid assets available to them. This includes paying off debts, overhead, or any other fixed costs associated with a business. Accounting liquidity is a functional comparison between one’s current liquid assets and their current liabilities. In the United States and other countries, companies and individuals have to reconcile accounting on a yearly basis. Accounting liquidity is an excellent measure that captures financial obligations due in a year. Accounting Liquidity Example Accounting liquidity itself can be differentiated by several ratios, controlling for how liquid assets are. These measures are useful tools for not just the individual or company in focus but for others that are trying to ascertain current financial health.As an example, accounting liquidity can measure any company’s current financial assets and compare them to its financial obligations. If there is a large disparity between these figures, or much more assets than obligations, a company can be considered to have a strong depth of liquidity.How to Calculate Liquidity Liquidity is of importance to investors, financial market participants, analysts, or even for an investment strategy. Calculating liquidity is a measure of firm or individual’s ability to utilize or harness current liquid assets to current cover short-term debt. This can be achieved using a total of four formulas: the current ratio, quick ratio, acid-test variation, and cash ratio. Current Ratio The current ratio is the easiest measure due to its lack of complexity. Quite simply, the current ratio measures a firm or individual’s current assets or those than can be sold within a calendar year, weighed against all current liabilities. Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities If the current ratio’s value is greater than 1, then the entity in question can be assumed to reconcile its financial obligations using its current liquid assets. Highly liquid assets will correspond to higher numbers in this regard. Conversely, any number less than 1 indicates that current liquid assets are not enough to cover short-term obligations. Quick Ratio A quick ratio is a slightly more complex way of measuring accounting liquidity via a balance sheet. Unlike the current ratio, the quick ratio excludes current assets that are not as liquid as cash, cash equivalents, or other shorter-term investments. The quick ratio can be defined below by the following: Quick Ratio = (Cash or Cash Equivalents + Shorter-Term Investments + Accounts Receivable)/Current Liabilities Acid-Test Ratio The acid-test ratio is a variation of the quick ratio. The acid-test ratio seeks to deduct inventory from current assets, serving as a traditionally broader measure that is more forgiving to individuals or entities. Acid-Test Ratio = (Current Assets – Inventories – Prepaid Costs)/Current Liabilities Cash Ratio Finally, the cash ratio further isolates current assets, looking to measure only liquid assets that are designated as cash or cash equivalents. In this sense, the cash ratio is the most precise of the other liquidity ratios, excluding accounts receivable, inventories, or other assets. A more precise measure has its uses, namely regarding assessing financial strength in the face of an emergency, i.e., an unforeseen and time sensitive event. The cash ratio can help measure an entity or individual’s hypothesized solvency in the face of unexpected scenarios, events, etc. As such, the cash ratio is defined below: Cash Ratio = Cash and Cash Equivalents/Current Liabilities The cash ratio is not simply a doomsday tool but a highly practical measure when determining market value. In the financial services space, even large companies or profitable institutions can find themselves at liquidity risk due to unexpected events beyond their control. Why is Liquidity Important and Why it Matters to You? Liquidity is very important for not just financial markets but for individuals and investors. Liquid markets benefit all market participants and make it easier to buy and sell securities, stocks, collectables, etc. On an individual level, this is important for personal finance, as ordinary investors are able to better take advantage of trading opportunities. Additionally, high liquidity promotes financial health in companies in the same way it does for individuals. Conclusion – What Does Liquidity Mean? What is liquidity? This metric is a commonly used as a measure in the investing, banking, or financial services space. Liquidity determines how quickly a given asset can be bought, sold, or exchanged without a disparity in market price. Which of the following assets is the most liquid? – cash, stocks, real estate. Of all assets, cash or money is the most liquid, meaning it is the easiest to utilize. All other liquid assets must be able to be quickly and efficiently converted into cash. This includes such things as stocks, commodities, or virtually any other construct that has an associated value. Conversely, illiquid or non-liquid assets are not able to be quickly converted into cash. These assets, also known as tangible assets, can include such things as rare art or collectables, real estate, etc. Frequently Asked Questions About Liquidity Is Liquidity Good or Bad? The term liquidity refers to a measure and is neither good nor bad but is instead a metric of how convertible an asset is to cash. However, high liquidity is associated with lower risk, while a liquid stock is more likely to keep its value when being traded.Is a Home a Liquid Asset? A home or properly is not considered to be a liquid asset. Selling any property can incur additional costs and take a long amount of time. Additionally, there is often a price disparity from the time of purchase, meaning a seller may not even get its original market value back at the time of the sale. Why Are Stocks Liquid? Stocks are some of the most liquid assets in financial markets because these assets can be converted to cash in a short period of time in the event of any financial emergency. Is Tesla a Liquid Stock? Tesla is a liquid stock and while hugely volatile, is an integral part of the NASDAQ and is a globally recognized company. Additionally, the company is a popular single-stock CFD offering at many brokerages, with very high volumes. Is a Pension a Liquid Asset? Certain pensions are liquid assets once you have reached a retirement age. Until you are eligible to withdraw or collect a pension, without early withdrawal penalty, it is not considered a liquid asset.
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US dollar to the Swiss franc hourly chart, in the aftermath of the SNB decision
According to information obtained by Forex Magnates, major banks are still struggling to determine the appropriate fill rates and there might be differences between lowest printed rates vs. tradable rates. One bank has messaged its clients, "We are filling trades now, but may have to amend at worse rates later."
Prospects of Severe Financial Losses at Some Brokers
In the aftermath of the SNB announcement, UK listed brokerage, IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG), announced that it is facing losses of up to £30 million . The firm explained in a statement that its clients managed to execute their orders in Swiss franc currency pairs at much more favorable rates than the broker got at the same time.
The lack of appropriate risk controls for a substantial part of the industry means that in the aftermath of this massive Black Swan
Black Swan
A Black Swan event is most commonly associated with an unforeseen calamity or event. In its most basic form, this event results in disastrous consequences for multiple parties, markets, or individuals and are characterized as extraordinarily rare in frequency, yet are seemingly predictable in retrospect. In the foreign exchange space, the most noteworthy of these events in recent memory was the Swiss National Bank (SNB) crisis which roiled currency markets back on January 15, 2015.During this instance, the SNB abruptly decided to abandon the Swiss franc (CHF) currency peg with the euro, convulsing markets. In particular, the aforementioned cap was designed to keep the franc pegged at 1.20 to the euro in a bid to shield exporters and mitigate deflationary pressure. With the removal of this peg, the rate plunged to 0.86 francs per euro, before ultimately recovering slightly.The resulting move led to total wash outs of positions and margin calls that stressed brokers and traders alike. The aftermath led to an ongoing debate over negative balance protection and other lingering effects on the FX industry and has remained controversial ever since.Other Black Swan EventsIn addition to the SNB, other examples of Black Swan events include the US housing market crash in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe in which inflation rates peaked at 79.6 billion percent and the dot-com bubble of 2001.More recently, many experts have posited whether the outbreak of Covid-19 can be characterized as a Black Swan event, given its seismic influence on equity markets in March 2020. Ultimately, there is no uniform consensus on the pandemic being a Black Swan event given the crisis is still ongoing.
A Black Swan event is most commonly associated with an unforeseen calamity or event. In its most basic form, this event results in disastrous consequences for multiple parties, markets, or individuals and are characterized as extraordinarily rare in frequency, yet are seemingly predictable in retrospect. In the foreign exchange space, the most noteworthy of these events in recent memory was the Swiss National Bank (SNB) crisis which roiled currency markets back on January 15, 2015.During this instance, the SNB abruptly decided to abandon the Swiss franc (CHF) currency peg with the euro, convulsing markets. In particular, the aforementioned cap was designed to keep the franc pegged at 1.20 to the euro in a bid to shield exporters and mitigate deflationary pressure. With the removal of this peg, the rate plunged to 0.86 francs per euro, before ultimately recovering slightly.The resulting move led to total wash outs of positions and margin calls that stressed brokers and traders alike. The aftermath led to an ongoing debate over negative balance protection and other lingering effects on the FX industry and has remained controversial ever since.Other Black Swan EventsIn addition to the SNB, other examples of Black Swan events include the US housing market crash in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe in which inflation rates peaked at 79.6 billion percent and the dot-com bubble of 2001.More recently, many experts have posited whether the outbreak of Covid-19 can be characterized as a Black Swan event, given its seismic influence on equity markets in March 2020. Ultimately, there is no uniform consensus on the pandemic being a Black Swan event given the crisis is still ongoing.
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From the perspective of the liquidity providers, depending on the reputation and the regulatory environment within which their broker clients are regulated, substantial risks may yet surface. Then again, most offshore and unregulated entities are likely skipping LPs altogether and b-booking the bulk of their client order flows.
Liquidity Traps and High-Frequency Trading Shops
Commenting about the events this morning, the Managing Director of ThinkLiquidity, Jeff Wilkins, explained, "I have been on the phone all morning and banks have been reluctant to price because all liquidity disappeared. We are seeing pricing come back through a few venues. This is an unprecedented move, but somewhat expected. Without intervention this floor simply wouldn't hold.”
While Mr. Wilkins states that the SNB's move was somewhat expected, the bulk of traders involved in the currency markets with a number of retail brokers have differed in opinion. When Forex Magnates first reported about Saxo Bank raising EUR/CHF margin requirements in September 2014, 85.8% of the traders on Saxo Bank’s book were shorting the Swiss currency.
Positioning at eToro right after the EUR/CHF market was frozen
The picture has been similar across a number of other brokers - at the time 88.27% of OANDA’s and 98.9% of FxPro’s EUR/CHF traders were wrong-footed, and this number has only increased since September, according to Forex Magnates' sources and to the regularly updated publicly available graphs from major brokerages.
Rumors about the lowest prints prompting distress at a number of high-frequency trading shops are sending a strong message to the industry - the most liquid market in the world is not protected from a ‘Flash Crash’ event.
The CEO and co-founder of London-based peer-to-peer foreign currency exchange, Kantox, Philippe Gelis, shared with Forex Magnates' reporters, “The huge exchange rate movements in the wake of the SNB announcement, have undoubtedly been largely amplified by algorithmic trading.”
“Financial markets are now more dependent on decisions processed by computers and algorithms than decisions taken by humans. When a central bank decides to modify its policy, for example by decreasing the interest rate, thousands of computers globally react in a fraction of a second, creating a wave of selling or buying positions,” he explained.
An agency model broker shared with Forex Magnates that the EUR/CHF low which was printed this morning was around 0.8058, while on the USD/CHF pair the bottom was at 0.7124.
Fortress Prime’s CEO, Mitch Eaglstein, shared with Forex Magnates, “We have proper pricing now but liquidity is quite limited as the banks are just now starting to accept orders again. Once the news hit the street the banks began rejecting orders. This is one of the most significant moves in recent times so it is quite understandable for the banks to react the way they did.”
When banks reject trades, brokers either are unable to hedge, or execute trades at prices that don't exist in the market, making them vulnerable to arbitrage trades.
“The platforms handled the volume just fine, but the liquidity providers weren't feeding into the order book. That's what Direct Market Access (DMA) means, so it's part of the game. This is a good time to encourage customers to not use excessive leverage,” CEO and co-founder of Darwinex, Juan Colon, stated to Forex Magnates.
According to data from the foreign exchange trading matching system FastMatch, the second most traded pair on the currency markets today is the EUR/CHF.
Long-Term Industry Impact
Today’s SNB induced Black Swan is unlikely to be forgotten any time soon. Risk policies and leverage offerings, especially by prime of prime brokers, are likely to be put into major reviews. According to Jeff Wilkins, “The largest risk at the moment is the ability to collect negative account balances, especially for STP only brokers.”
To put it mildly, “unwise” leverage offerings in the likes of several hundreds to one are very damaging to the industry in the long run. Today has proven that not only clients of the brokers can suffer losses from extreme leverage. A single black swan event such as the Swiss-born we saw today, can cause long-term damage to a number of companies from the industry and even put some out of business.
The risk in the market not only stems from monetary damage, but also a reputational one.
The CEO of Fluent Trade Technologies, a company providing software to buy-side firms and prime brokers to monitor their clients, Gil Neihous, shared in a short interview with Forex Magnates, “This is the day that will change the way prime brokers and brokers are managing risk in what is a very fragmented market.” “Market makers who actually post the prices in the marketplace have left a lot of prime brokers exposed to huge risks and all losses caused by today’s event are yet to surface,” he continued.
Asked about the long-term implications of the Black Swan which hit the foreign exchange markets today, Mr. Neihous said, “If you think about a market where a prime broker extends billions of dollars in credit limits but has zero control over what the clients can do under their name, we are hearing a loud message today - ‘This has to stop.’ ”
According to sources close to Forex Magnates, algorithmic trading was hit particularly hard today, many companies having lost tens of millions of dollars on the foreign exchange markets on this Black Thursday.
Discussing market-making challenges for smaller firms, Mr. Neihous said, “A lot of small firms are doing market-making, anybody involved in this and did not have very strong risk controls, suffered huge losses.”
“Traditional rules like net open orders, net open positions are not sufficient in our view,” the CEO of Fluent Trade Technologies said.
“There is a need for other rules which indicate volatility, orders per second and some other more-behavioral rules other than the pure risk rules which avoid orders from reaching out to the market. One of the risks is not the actual position, but the orders associated to it which are on the market,” he explained.
If the prime brokers and the market participants do not take action themselves, the regulators will force them to. The impact of the costs on the market will be much more significant. The industry should gear itself up towards better controls for its own sake as it looks like the tumultuous times for the foreign exchange market are far from over.
