Client trading volume at the second largest Japanese FX brokerage house, DMM.com Securities, has dropped to $433.5 billion (¥44.1 trillion) in the month of May. This marks the fourth consecutive decline in trading volumes for the company and confirms that the main driver of volatility on the Japanese retail FX trading market is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary stimulus.
Until we see conclusive results from the enacted sales tax hike there might be further stagnation, as the Bank of Japan is likely to achieve its 2% inflation goal only thanks to the government’s efforts to put more pressure on local consumers.
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With all of the reports from the major Japanese brokerages we can clearly observe that the trend is nowhere close to reversing, as the only sign of volatility during the month was in the EUR/USD pair and the EUR/JPY cross rate. With the USD/JPY trading in a range between 101 and 105 since the start of the year, last year’s stellar numbers seem ages away. With the rally in the US bond markets the yield differential is contracting, which brings the most traded pair in Japan into tight ranges and consequently we are not very likely to see volumes pick up until there is a change in the status quo.