The platform outpaces rival crypto-based Polymarket despite the competitor's U.S. expansion push.
The higher turnover rates suggest different trading behaviors between the two platforms.
Kalshi has
emerged as the dominant player in prediction market and event-based contract trading,
capturing nearly two-thirds of sector volume as regulated platforms gain ground
over offshore competitors.
Kalshi Captures 62% Market
Share as Prediction Trading Volumes Surge
The CFTC-authorized
company accounted for 62% of total prediction market volume from September
11-17, compared to Polymarket's 37% share, according
to Dune Analytics data. Kalshi processed over $500 million in weekly
trading volume while maintaining average open interest of $189 million.
Polymarket,
despite generating $430 million in volume during the same period, showed
different trading patterns with an average open interest of $164 million. The
disparity points to what analysts describe as "sticker positions on
Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi."
In recent
days, Kalshi’s lead over Polymarket has grown even larger, reaching 65% of the
total market share. By comparison, as recently as December 2024, Polymarket
accounted for 95% of the market.
Source: Dune Analytics
“Event
contracts have generated high demand because they provide a maximally direct
way to get exposure to events that affect businesses, people, and the economy,
and they provide the most accurate signal on what the likelihood of future
events are,” commented Jack Such from Kalshi, responsible for Business &
Media Development, to FinanceMagnates.com.
Such is
also confident that “prediction markets will become a trillion dollar asset
class.”
Different Trading
Behaviors Emerge Between Platforms
The
platforms' distinct approaches have created different user behaviors.
Polymarket's longer-term markets, often spanning weeks or months, keep user
funds locked in for extended periods. This creates higher open interest
relative to volume.
Kalshi
averaged an open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29, while Polymarket's ratio hit
0.38. The lower ratio suggests Kalshi users trade more frequently, while
Polymarket positions tend to remain static for longer periods.
The trading
pattern differences reflect each platform's regulatory environment and market
structure. Kalshi
operates under U.S. regulatory oversight, while Polymarket has historically
served international users through blockchain-based contracts.
Kalshi,
however, is also facing
lawsuits and controversies in several U.S. states. Allegations of gambling
have been further fueled by the fact that Poker
legend Daniel Negreanu was recently named the face of the platform.
Polymarket Pushes Back
Into U.S. Market
Polymarket
isn't conceding ground easily. The platform completed
its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, clearing the path
for re-entry into the U.S. market after resolving regulatory issues.
The company
has also launched earnings-based prediction markets in
partnership with social investing platform Stocktwits. The collaboration
allows stockholders to hedge earnings risk while providing analysts real-time
market sentiment data.
These moves
represent Polymarket's attempt to compete directly with Kalshi's regulatory
advantage in the lucrative U.S. prediction market space. The platform had
previously operated in regulatory gray areas before reaching settlements with
U.S. authorities.
Kalshi has
emerged as the dominant player in prediction market and event-based contract trading,
capturing nearly two-thirds of sector volume as regulated platforms gain ground
over offshore competitors.
Kalshi Captures 62% Market
Share as Prediction Trading Volumes Surge
The CFTC-authorized
company accounted for 62% of total prediction market volume from September
11-17, compared to Polymarket's 37% share, according
to Dune Analytics data. Kalshi processed over $500 million in weekly
trading volume while maintaining average open interest of $189 million.
Polymarket,
despite generating $430 million in volume during the same period, showed
different trading patterns with an average open interest of $164 million. The
disparity points to what analysts describe as "sticker positions on
Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi."
In recent
days, Kalshi’s lead over Polymarket has grown even larger, reaching 65% of the
total market share. By comparison, as recently as December 2024, Polymarket
accounted for 95% of the market.
Source: Dune Analytics
“Event
contracts have generated high demand because they provide a maximally direct
way to get exposure to events that affect businesses, people, and the economy,
and they provide the most accurate signal on what the likelihood of future
events are,” commented Jack Such from Kalshi, responsible for Business &
Media Development, to FinanceMagnates.com.
Such is
also confident that “prediction markets will become a trillion dollar asset
class.”
Different Trading
Behaviors Emerge Between Platforms
The
platforms' distinct approaches have created different user behaviors.
Polymarket's longer-term markets, often spanning weeks or months, keep user
funds locked in for extended periods. This creates higher open interest
relative to volume.
Kalshi
averaged an open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29, while Polymarket's ratio hit
0.38. The lower ratio suggests Kalshi users trade more frequently, while
Polymarket positions tend to remain static for longer periods.
The trading
pattern differences reflect each platform's regulatory environment and market
structure. Kalshi
operates under U.S. regulatory oversight, while Polymarket has historically
served international users through blockchain-based contracts.
Kalshi,
however, is also facing
lawsuits and controversies in several U.S. states. Allegations of gambling
have been further fueled by the fact that Poker
legend Daniel Negreanu was recently named the face of the platform.
Polymarket Pushes Back
Into U.S. Market
Polymarket
isn't conceding ground easily. The platform completed
its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, clearing the path
for re-entry into the U.S. market after resolving regulatory issues.
The company
has also launched earnings-based prediction markets in
partnership with social investing platform Stocktwits. The collaboration
allows stockholders to hedge earnings risk while providing analysts real-time
market sentiment data.
These moves
represent Polymarket's attempt to compete directly with Kalshi's regulatory
advantage in the lucrative U.S. prediction market space. The platform had
previously operated in regulatory gray areas before reaching settlements with
U.S. authorities.
Damian's adventure with financial markets began at the Cracow University of Economics, where he obtained his MA in finance and accounting. Starting from the retail trader perspective, he collaborated with brokerage houses and financial portals in Poland as an independent editor and content manager. His adventure with Finance Magnates began in 2016, where he is working as a business intelligence analyst.
Retail Trading & Prop Firms in 2025: Five Defining Trends - And One Prediction for 2026
Executive Interview | Charlotte Bullock | Chief Product Officer, Bank of London | FMLS:25
Executive Interview | Charlotte Bullock | Chief Product Officer, Bank of London | FMLS:25
In this interview, we sat down with Charlotte Bullock, Head of Product at The Bank of London, previously at SAP and now shaping product at one of the sector’s most ambitious new banking players.
Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
In this interview, we sat down with Charlotte Bullock, Head of Product at The Bank of London, previously at SAP and now shaping product at one of the sector’s most ambitious new banking players.
Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
Executive Interview | Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller| CEO & Founder Muinmos | FMLS:25
Executive Interview | Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller| CEO & Founder Muinmos | FMLS:25
In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this conversation, we speak with Aydin Bonabi, CEO and co-founder of Surveill, a firm focused on fraud detection and AI-driven compliance tools for financial institutions.
We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
In this conversation, we speak with Aydin Bonabi, CEO and co-founder of Surveill, a firm focused on fraud detection and AI-driven compliance tools for financial institutions.
We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
