Friday Brief: Five Things Traders Need to Know for Today

Oil and junk bonds are facing an onslaught of pressure as each look to assert themselves as some of the

Quote of the Day

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

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– Sun Tzu, Art of War

5 Things You Need to Know Today

Trading Is Like a War. And you have to be willing to lose some troops in order to win battles. In this webinar, I talk about how some of the greatest traders are willing to lose money in order to make money. Warning: Sometimes in the webinar, I forget to share the right screen. Sorry in advance.

This is Water. This is a must-watch video. Many of you have already seen it but some of you have not. It’s just 9 minutes long and it’s a warning: The way we think about the world around us can have massive effects.

Now, onto some business stuff…

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Junk Bond Mutual Fund Goes Bust. A world-class vulture bond investor (someone who buys distressed debt on the cheap) will shut down his mutual fund. He blames “poor bond trading conditions.” But the truth is that bonds are a terrible investment right now.

Oil Is a Really Dismal Investment Right Now. Not as bad as junk bonds, but close. Analysts were SO WRONG about oil in 2015. Most big bank analysts expected oil to close the year much higher. Now they’re predicting a rebound in 2016 as well. My guess? Oil is going to $25. It makes you wonder where the great investments have gone.

Here’s a Great Investment: Battery Technology. Prieto Battery in Fort Collins, Colorado, is building a super battery. This is amazing. I’m telling you, promising you, the next super-successful startup is going to come from this industry. If this company offered me a job for equity I would leave tomorrow and go freeze my Double A’s off in Fort Collins tomorrow. It’s promising technology like this that makes me think, “Everything is going to be ok.”

Everything Is Not Going to Be Ok. The ticking time bomb in the U.S. economy? Student loan debt. This is going to blow up, and badly. When the next dot-com bust happens (See: 2016-2017) a lot of very, very smart young people are going to be very, very angry. And poor. And living in New York, San Francisco, and other places where it costs twelve bajillion dollar bills to survive. This is not going to end well for the $1 trillion student loan industry.

Chart of the Day 

Where I think junk bonds are going: This is SJB, an ETF that rises when junk bonds do poorly.

chartfri

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