What does this mean for the Bitcoin network? Predictions about the consequences of the halving range far and wide--but there are several popular narratives among cryptocurrency analysts.
#1: Many experts believe that the Bitcoin price will rally after the halving--eventually
At present, the price of Bitcoin has taken a bit of a hit: BTC peaked around $9700 on Sunday, May 10th; at press time (Monday, May 11th), that figure had shrunk to $8,675, falling as low as $8,466 within the last 24 hours (although it’s important to note that Bitcoin is up roughly 40 percent since the beginning of the year, outperforming both gold and USD.)
One of the most popular beliefs in cryptocurrency circles about halving events is that they are great for the price of Bitcoin: that--sooner or later--the halving will cause the Bitcoin price to explode.
This belief stems from the fact that cutting the mining reward in half contributes to the greater scarcity of BTC as the number of users on the networks continues to grow. At this present (pre-halving) moment, 1800 BTC are produced every day through miners; post-halving, that figure will shrink to just 900 BTC per day.
Late last week, Jose Llisterri, co-founder of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Interdax, explained to Finance Magnates that over time, this reduction in the supply of Bitcoin leads to a reduction in sell pressure: “[this] adds up over time and acts as an upward force on the price of Bitcoin,” Llisterri explained.
Interdax co-founder and Chief Product Officer Jose Llisterri.
But how long would it take for this price increase to manifest in Bitcoin’s price? In the past, “we saw BTC reach fresh highs 12 months after the first halving in 2012, and 18 months after the second halving in 2016,” Llisterri said.
This time around, a post-halving price boost could take even longer: “if we have progressively longer cycles for bitcoin, we could see a fresh high 18-24 months after May, meaning Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high between October 2021 and May 2022.”
Of course, there has been quite a bit of discussion over how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the effects of the pandemic. Some analysts believe that the QE and other stimulus efforts by governments will be a good thing for Bitcoin; others believe the pandemic could have a long-term dampening effect on the price of BTC.
#2: Small- and medium-sized Bitcoin miners could take a serious hit
While it’s possible that halvings may be great for Bitcoin’s price in the long term, there’s one part of the crypto industry that is likely to take a serious hit as the result of the halving: miners.
Therefore, large mining pools with state-of-the-art equipment and lots of cash on hand aren’t necessarily the ones who should be concerned: instead, it’s the small- and medium-sized Bitcoin mining operations--operations that may also be relying on outdated equipment--that may eventually be forced to shut down.
Nathan Nichols, a managing partner at Imperium Investments, told Finance Magnates last week that he believes that the upcoming halving “will hurt the majority of miners.”
As the cost of producing BTC continues to rise, these miners may be forced to sell off their equipment, and their Bitcoins, perhaps at a loss: “with high costs comes the pressure to sell off a miner’s BTC inventory since power expenses must be paid in fiat,” Nichols said.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s hash rate--the amount of computing power used to power the network--was at 120.635 million TeraHash/second (TH/s) at press time, just under its yearly peak of 123.2m TH/s, which was achieved last week. This could either indicate that more miners are entering the network, or that miners already on the network are cranking up their machines full-blast ahead of the halving. A number of analysts believe that the price follows the hash rate.
#3: The halving is “a phenomenal marketing opportunity” for Bitcoin and crypto
Indeed, “the halving doesn’t matter that much in terms of fundamentals,” he said, but “[...] everyone’s going to be hearing about Bitcoin. It’s going to be all over the press; it already is now.”
And indeed, the halving does seem to have brought an increased amount of attention to Bitcoin: data from Google Analytics shows that the number of searches for the word “Bitcoin” has increased considerably within the last several weeks.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin also got quite a positive piece of press from China Central Television, a state-owned television network in China.
Whoa , first time saw a chinese national media talking about bitcoin pump!! The finance section of CCTV(biggest national televisions in China ) posted an article about bitcoin today , the article said bitcoin 3rd halving is close and its price pumped up to $10,000 on May 8th . pic.twitter.com/NNKJUezgnU
What does this mean for the Bitcoin network? Predictions about the consequences of the halving range far and wide--but there are several popular narratives among cryptocurrency analysts.
#1: Many experts believe that the Bitcoin price will rally after the halving--eventually
At present, the price of Bitcoin has taken a bit of a hit: BTC peaked around $9700 on Sunday, May 10th; at press time (Monday, May 11th), that figure had shrunk to $8,675, falling as low as $8,466 within the last 24 hours (although it’s important to note that Bitcoin is up roughly 40 percent since the beginning of the year, outperforming both gold and USD.)
One of the most popular beliefs in cryptocurrency circles about halving events is that they are great for the price of Bitcoin: that--sooner or later--the halving will cause the Bitcoin price to explode.
This belief stems from the fact that cutting the mining reward in half contributes to the greater scarcity of BTC as the number of users on the networks continues to grow. At this present (pre-halving) moment, 1800 BTC are produced every day through miners; post-halving, that figure will shrink to just 900 BTC per day.
Late last week, Jose Llisterri, co-founder of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Interdax, explained to Finance Magnates that over time, this reduction in the supply of Bitcoin leads to a reduction in sell pressure: “[this] adds up over time and acts as an upward force on the price of Bitcoin,” Llisterri explained.
Interdax co-founder and Chief Product Officer Jose Llisterri.
But how long would it take for this price increase to manifest in Bitcoin’s price? In the past, “we saw BTC reach fresh highs 12 months after the first halving in 2012, and 18 months after the second halving in 2016,” Llisterri said.
This time around, a post-halving price boost could take even longer: “if we have progressively longer cycles for bitcoin, we could see a fresh high 18-24 months after May, meaning Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high between October 2021 and May 2022.”
Of course, there has been quite a bit of discussion over how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the effects of the pandemic. Some analysts believe that the QE and other stimulus efforts by governments will be a good thing for Bitcoin; others believe the pandemic could have a long-term dampening effect on the price of BTC.
#2: Small- and medium-sized Bitcoin miners could take a serious hit
While it’s possible that halvings may be great for Bitcoin’s price in the long term, there’s one part of the crypto industry that is likely to take a serious hit as the result of the halving: miners.
Therefore, large mining pools with state-of-the-art equipment and lots of cash on hand aren’t necessarily the ones who should be concerned: instead, it’s the small- and medium-sized Bitcoin mining operations--operations that may also be relying on outdated equipment--that may eventually be forced to shut down.
Nathan Nichols, a managing partner at Imperium Investments, told Finance Magnates last week that he believes that the upcoming halving “will hurt the majority of miners.”
As the cost of producing BTC continues to rise, these miners may be forced to sell off their equipment, and their Bitcoins, perhaps at a loss: “with high costs comes the pressure to sell off a miner’s BTC inventory since power expenses must be paid in fiat,” Nichols said.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s hash rate--the amount of computing power used to power the network--was at 120.635 million TeraHash/second (TH/s) at press time, just under its yearly peak of 123.2m TH/s, which was achieved last week. This could either indicate that more miners are entering the network, or that miners already on the network are cranking up their machines full-blast ahead of the halving. A number of analysts believe that the price follows the hash rate.
#3: The halving is “a phenomenal marketing opportunity” for Bitcoin and crypto
Indeed, “the halving doesn’t matter that much in terms of fundamentals,” he said, but “[...] everyone’s going to be hearing about Bitcoin. It’s going to be all over the press; it already is now.”
And indeed, the halving does seem to have brought an increased amount of attention to Bitcoin: data from Google Analytics shows that the number of searches for the word “Bitcoin” has increased considerably within the last several weeks.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin also got quite a positive piece of press from China Central Television, a state-owned television network in China.
Whoa , first time saw a chinese national media talking about bitcoin pump!! The finance section of CCTV(biggest national televisions in China ) posted an article about bitcoin today , the article said bitcoin 3rd halving is close and its price pumped up to $10,000 on May 8th . pic.twitter.com/NNKJUezgnU
Rachel is a self-taught crypto geek and a passionate writer. She believes in the power that the written word has to educate, connect and empower individuals to make positive and powerful financial choices. She is the Podcast Host and a Cryptocurrency Editor at Finance Magnates.
Schwab Aims Crypto Custody at Its $5 Trillion Advisor Channel by 2027
Featured Videos
Precious Insights: APAC's Bullion Market amid Record Volatility
Precious Insights: APAC's Bullion Market amid Record Volatility
Precious Insights: APAC's Bullion Market amid Record Volatility
Precious Insights: APAC's Bullion Market amid Record Volatility
The precious metals rally has challenged how brokers and LPs think about hedging, pricing, and physical delivery. But with regional banks eyeing physical gold retail and bullion brokers across Southeast Asia harnessing new tech, volatility is not only in 'safe havens'.
This session gathers practitioners from across the bullion ecosystem to unpack what the rally means on the ground in APAC.
Attendees will walk away with:
Insight into the physical market dynamics driving retail demand across Southeast Asia, from central bank buying to store-of-value purchases
Understanding of Singapore's distinct role as APAC's bullion gateway, and competition near and far
Perspective on operational challenges unique to APAC: kilogram pricing, local delivery, and bridging CFD and physical bullion infrastructure
The precious metals rally has challenged how brokers and LPs think about hedging, pricing, and physical delivery. But with regional banks eyeing physical gold retail and bullion brokers across Southeast Asia harnessing new tech, volatility is not only in 'safe havens'.
This session gathers practitioners from across the bullion ecosystem to unpack what the rally means on the ground in APAC.
Attendees will walk away with:
Insight into the physical market dynamics driving retail demand across Southeast Asia, from central bank buying to store-of-value purchases
Understanding of Singapore's distinct role as APAC's bullion gateway, and competition near and far
Perspective on operational challenges unique to APAC: kilogram pricing, local delivery, and bridging CFD and physical bullion infrastructure
The precious metals rally has challenged how brokers and LPs think about hedging, pricing, and physical delivery. But with regional banks eyeing physical gold retail and bullion brokers across Southeast Asia harnessing new tech, volatility is not only in 'safe havens'.
This session gathers practitioners from across the bullion ecosystem to unpack what the rally means on the ground in APAC.
Attendees will walk away with:
Insight into the physical market dynamics driving retail demand across Southeast Asia, from central bank buying to store-of-value purchases
Understanding of Singapore's distinct role as APAC's bullion gateway, and competition near and far
Perspective on operational challenges unique to APAC: kilogram pricing, local delivery, and bridging CFD and physical bullion infrastructure
The precious metals rally has challenged how brokers and LPs think about hedging, pricing, and physical delivery. But with regional banks eyeing physical gold retail and bullion brokers across Southeast Asia harnessing new tech, volatility is not only in 'safe havens'.
This session gathers practitioners from across the bullion ecosystem to unpack what the rally means on the ground in APAC.
Attendees will walk away with:
Insight into the physical market dynamics driving retail demand across Southeast Asia, from central bank buying to store-of-value purchases
Understanding of Singapore's distinct role as APAC's bullion gateway, and competition near and far
Perspective on operational challenges unique to APAC: kilogram pricing, local delivery, and bridging CFD and physical bullion infrastructure
License to Fill: Market Liquidity amid Global Turmoil
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Asian markets bear unique characteristics, from connectivity to asset preference. The Singapore Summit will connect global executives and local experts across the liquidity chain to discuss volatility fluctuations, diversification vs over-reliance on single assets, and the role of trust and liquidity relationships in an increasingly automated sphere.
Asian markets bear unique characteristics, from connectivity to asset preference. The Singapore Summit will connect global executives and local experts across the liquidity chain to discuss volatility fluctuations, diversification vs over-reliance on single assets, and the role of trust and liquidity relationships in an increasingly automated sphere.
Asian markets bear unique characteristics, from connectivity to asset preference. The Singapore Summit will connect global executives and local experts across the liquidity chain to discuss volatility fluctuations, diversification vs over-reliance on single assets, and the role of trust and liquidity relationships in an increasingly automated sphere.
Asian markets bear unique characteristics, from connectivity to asset preference. The Singapore Summit will connect global executives and local experts across the liquidity chain to discuss volatility fluctuations, diversification vs over-reliance on single assets, and the role of trust and liquidity relationships in an increasingly automated sphere.
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Bangkok is consolidating as Southeast Asia's broker hub for CLMV access, while Vietnam's trading volumes have made it harder to ignore from any regional headquarters. Most brokers know both exist. Fewer have tested what operating there actually requires.
This session gathers practitioners with on-the-ground experience in both markets to examine what it takes to build and run operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Attendees will walk away with:
A clear view of setup requirements in both markets: entity structures, timelines, and what first-time operators tend to get wrong
Understanding of the offshore broker model and how compliant operators work within domestic restrictions in each jurisdiction
Insight into talent acquisition, client onboarding, and distribution in markets where language, culture, and acquisition channels don't follow standard APAC assumptions
Perspective on adjacent Southeast Asian markets worth monitoring for the next regional move
Bangkok is consolidating as Southeast Asia's broker hub for CLMV access, while Vietnam's trading volumes have made it harder to ignore from any regional headquarters. Most brokers know both exist. Fewer have tested what operating there actually requires.
This session gathers practitioners with on-the-ground experience in both markets to examine what it takes to build and run operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Attendees will walk away with:
A clear view of setup requirements in both markets: entity structures, timelines, and what first-time operators tend to get wrong
Understanding of the offshore broker model and how compliant operators work within domestic restrictions in each jurisdiction
Insight into talent acquisition, client onboarding, and distribution in markets where language, culture, and acquisition channels don't follow standard APAC assumptions
Perspective on adjacent Southeast Asian markets worth monitoring for the next regional move
Bangkok is consolidating as Southeast Asia's broker hub for CLMV access, while Vietnam's trading volumes have made it harder to ignore from any regional headquarters. Most brokers know both exist. Fewer have tested what operating there actually requires.
This session gathers practitioners with on-the-ground experience in both markets to examine what it takes to build and run operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Attendees will walk away with:
A clear view of setup requirements in both markets: entity structures, timelines, and what first-time operators tend to get wrong
Understanding of the offshore broker model and how compliant operators work within domestic restrictions in each jurisdiction
Insight into talent acquisition, client onboarding, and distribution in markets where language, culture, and acquisition channels don't follow standard APAC assumptions
Perspective on adjacent Southeast Asian markets worth monitoring for the next regional move
Bangkok is consolidating as Southeast Asia's broker hub for CLMV access, while Vietnam's trading volumes have made it harder to ignore from any regional headquarters. Most brokers know both exist. Fewer have tested what operating there actually requires.
This session gathers practitioners with on-the-ground experience in both markets to examine what it takes to build and run operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Attendees will walk away with:
A clear view of setup requirements in both markets: entity structures, timelines, and what first-time operators tend to get wrong
Understanding of the offshore broker model and how compliant operators work within domestic restrictions in each jurisdiction
Insight into talent acquisition, client onboarding, and distribution in markets where language, culture, and acquisition channels don't follow standard APAC assumptions
Perspective on adjacent Southeast Asian markets worth monitoring for the next regional move
Bangkok is consolidating as Southeast Asia's broker hub for CLMV access, while Vietnam's trading volumes have made it harder to ignore from any regional headquarters. Most brokers know both exist. Fewer have tested what operating there actually requires.
This session gathers practitioners with on-the-ground experience in both markets to examine what it takes to build and run operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Attendees will walk away with:
A clear view of setup requirements in both markets: entity structures, timelines, and what first-time operators tend to get wrong
Understanding of the offshore broker model and how compliant operators work within domestic restrictions in each jurisdiction
Insight into talent acquisition, client onboarding, and distribution in markets where language, culture, and acquisition channels don't follow standard APAC assumptions
Perspective on adjacent Southeast Asian markets worth monitoring for the next regional move
Bangkok is consolidating as Southeast Asia's broker hub for CLMV access, while Vietnam's trading volumes have made it harder to ignore from any regional headquarters. Most brokers know both exist. Fewer have tested what operating there actually requires.
This session gathers practitioners with on-the-ground experience in both markets to examine what it takes to build and run operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Attendees will walk away with:
A clear view of setup requirements in both markets: entity structures, timelines, and what first-time operators tend to get wrong
Understanding of the offshore broker model and how compliant operators work within domestic restrictions in each jurisdiction
Insight into talent acquisition, client onboarding, and distribution in markets where language, culture, and acquisition channels don't follow standard APAC assumptions
Perspective on adjacent Southeast Asian markets worth monitoring for the next regional move
Join The Club: What Premium Clients Want
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High-net-worth traders account for an outsized portion of revenues for various retail brokers.
This session will gather heads of premium, acquisition, and product experts to reveal how they build their client base in Asia.
Attendees will walk away with:
Understanding of how brokers view premium clients (beyond deposit size).
Insight into which services, products, and benefits increase trust and LTV.
Examples of offerings that scale without inflating cost or operational burden.
Lessons from leading brokers on growing premium segments and what’s next.
High-net-worth traders account for an outsized portion of revenues for various retail brokers.
This session will gather heads of premium, acquisition, and product experts to reveal how they build their client base in Asia.
Attendees will walk away with:
Understanding of how brokers view premium clients (beyond deposit size).
Insight into which services, products, and benefits increase trust and LTV.
Examples of offerings that scale without inflating cost or operational burden.
Lessons from leading brokers on growing premium segments and what’s next.
High-net-worth traders account for an outsized portion of revenues for various retail brokers.
This session will gather heads of premium, acquisition, and product experts to reveal how they build their client base in Asia.
Attendees will walk away with:
Understanding of how brokers view premium clients (beyond deposit size).
Insight into which services, products, and benefits increase trust and LTV.
Examples of offerings that scale without inflating cost or operational burden.
Lessons from leading brokers on growing premium segments and what’s next.
High-net-worth traders account for an outsized portion of revenues for various retail brokers.
This session will gather heads of premium, acquisition, and product experts to reveal how they build their client base in Asia.
Attendees will walk away with:
Understanding of how brokers view premium clients (beyond deposit size).
Insight into which services, products, and benefits increase trust and LTV.
Examples of offerings that scale without inflating cost or operational burden.
Lessons from leading brokers on growing premium segments and what’s next.
High-net-worth traders account for an outsized portion of revenues for various retail brokers.
This session will gather heads of premium, acquisition, and product experts to reveal how they build their client base in Asia.
Attendees will walk away with:
Understanding of how brokers view premium clients (beyond deposit size).
Insight into which services, products, and benefits increase trust and LTV.
Examples of offerings that scale without inflating cost or operational burden.
Lessons from leading brokers on growing premium segments and what’s next.
High-net-worth traders account for an outsized portion of revenues for various retail brokers.
This session will gather heads of premium, acquisition, and product experts to reveal how they build their client base in Asia.
Attendees will walk away with:
Understanding of how brokers view premium clients (beyond deposit size).
Insight into which services, products, and benefits increase trust and LTV.
Examples of offerings that scale without inflating cost or operational burden.
Lessons from leading brokers on growing premium segments and what’s next.
Buying The Deep: Digital Asset Adoption in APAC and Beyond
Buying The Deep: Digital Asset Adoption in APAC and Beyond
Buying The Deep: Digital Asset Adoption in APAC and Beyond
Buying The Deep: Digital Asset Adoption in APAC and Beyond
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The persisting price drops test the industry's commitment to crypto adoption. While on-chain innovation is making headway across market mechanics, from stablecoins to tokenization, investors remains cautious.
This session brings together market structure experts and institutional investors to explore how a prolonged bear market affects their long-term strategy, and where the opportunities lie ahead of the next cycle.
Attendees will walk away with:
First-hand account of the bear market's impact on various industry players
Understanding of what custody, connectivity, and settlement gaps still hamper growth in APAC
Insight into how client mandates and operational readiness are shaping who moves and who waits
Perspective on what institutional investors need to move toward actual digital asset capital deployment
The persisting price drops test the industry's commitment to crypto adoption. While on-chain innovation is making headway across market mechanics, from stablecoins to tokenization, investors remains cautious.
This session brings together market structure experts and institutional investors to explore how a prolonged bear market affects their long-term strategy, and where the opportunities lie ahead of the next cycle.
Attendees will walk away with:
First-hand account of the bear market's impact on various industry players
Understanding of what custody, connectivity, and settlement gaps still hamper growth in APAC
Insight into how client mandates and operational readiness are shaping who moves and who waits
Perspective on what institutional investors need to move toward actual digital asset capital deployment
The persisting price drops test the industry's commitment to crypto adoption. While on-chain innovation is making headway across market mechanics, from stablecoins to tokenization, investors remains cautious.
This session brings together market structure experts and institutional investors to explore how a prolonged bear market affects their long-term strategy, and where the opportunities lie ahead of the next cycle.
Attendees will walk away with:
First-hand account of the bear market's impact on various industry players
Understanding of what custody, connectivity, and settlement gaps still hamper growth in APAC
Insight into how client mandates and operational readiness are shaping who moves and who waits
Perspective on what institutional investors need to move toward actual digital asset capital deployment
The persisting price drops test the industry's commitment to crypto adoption. While on-chain innovation is making headway across market mechanics, from stablecoins to tokenization, investors remains cautious.
This session brings together market structure experts and institutional investors to explore how a prolonged bear market affects their long-term strategy, and where the opportunities lie ahead of the next cycle.
Attendees will walk away with:
First-hand account of the bear market's impact on various industry players
Understanding of what custody, connectivity, and settlement gaps still hamper growth in APAC
Insight into how client mandates and operational readiness are shaping who moves and who waits
Perspective on what institutional investors need to move toward actual digital asset capital deployment
The persisting price drops test the industry's commitment to crypto adoption. While on-chain innovation is making headway across market mechanics, from stablecoins to tokenization, investors remains cautious.
This session brings together market structure experts and institutional investors to explore how a prolonged bear market affects their long-term strategy, and where the opportunities lie ahead of the next cycle.
Attendees will walk away with:
First-hand account of the bear market's impact on various industry players
Understanding of what custody, connectivity, and settlement gaps still hamper growth in APAC
Insight into how client mandates and operational readiness are shaping who moves and who waits
Perspective on what institutional investors need to move toward actual digital asset capital deployment
The persisting price drops test the industry's commitment to crypto adoption. While on-chain innovation is making headway across market mechanics, from stablecoins to tokenization, investors remains cautious.
This session brings together market structure experts and institutional investors to explore how a prolonged bear market affects their long-term strategy, and where the opportunities lie ahead of the next cycle.
Attendees will walk away with:
First-hand account of the bear market's impact on various industry players
Understanding of what custody, connectivity, and settlement gaps still hamper growth in APAC
Insight into how client mandates and operational readiness are shaping who moves and who waits
Perspective on what institutional investors need to move toward actual digital asset capital deployment
