ATFX has released its quarterly global market outlook for Q2 2020. The broker’s in-house experts share their views regarding factors that could influence the markets in the coming quarter.
The analysts featured in the report gave their predictions on major currency pairs, commodities, equities and cryptocurrency for Q2.
Alejandro Zambrano, ATFX’s Global Chief Market Strategist, covers the major currency pairs including EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD.
He explains what he thinks will happen to each of the currency pairs, looking at the most likely scenarios.
Alejandro explains two scenarios, one – “If the borders close, the Eurozone could slump into a recession.” And two – “However, the euro could rally if the coronavirus pandemic is contained early in the quarter.”
As for the USD/JPY outlook, he notes that “The economic situation in Japan tends to have a low impact on the currency until the Bank of Japan decides to embark on large QE and rate cut programs … the currency tends therefore to follow the mood of global risk appetite.”
Cameron Bowen, a senior content manager at ATFX UK discusses the outlook of global equities based on existing factors and the most likely outcomes.
A major factor that is likely to influence the performance of global stock indices is the coronavirus pandemic that has led to the worst ever quarterly performance for stocks in Q1.
How governments handle the pandemic going forward will determine how stocks perform in Q2.
Cameron also observes that “The short-term future of this market will ultimately come down to how the spread of the coronavirus is handled … I expect to see continued volatility in the coming weeks but I think we will see it soften.”
He also covers cryptocurrencies and how their recent performance negates the concept of cryptos being a safe haven or an uncorrelated asset class.
Martin Lam, ATFX’s Chief Analyst for the Asia Pacific region covers commodities including gold and oil and their likely performance in Q2.
He states that gold is likely to rally during the quarter if the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage countries and the death toll keeps rising.
Another sell-off in the equity markets could trigger a major rally in gold past its recent high of $1,702 that it reached in March.
However, action in the gold markets could be subdued if the equity markets rally and the global economy recovers. Further central bank easing could also trigger a rally by gold.
Mr Lam also covers the crude oil market where he expects oil prices to rise on higher demand and potential supply cuts in Q2.
Oil prices are usually strong in Q2 and this seasonal strength could also boost the commodity. The crude oil outlook will also be affected by the coronavirus pandemic.
ATFX continues to provide regular updates to traders on how the predictions made in the Q2 report are unfolding in the markets during these challenging times.
Download the quarterly market outlook today
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