Cboe Global Markets has announced plans to launch a prediction market framework that allows traders to take positions on market outcomes beyond the traditional binary payout. The contracts are designed to expand outcome-based trading by providing payouts even when predictions are only partly correct.

Prediction markets have attracted retail traders, with platforms like Robinhood and Kalshi reporting strong uptake. Exchanges including Intercontinental Exchange and CME Group have also tested similar products, integrating event-based instruments into regulated markets and complementing traditional derivatives and options strategies.

Cboe Launches BITVX Bitcoin Volatility Index

Cboe is also launching the BITVX, extending its volatility index methodology into digital assets and providing a benchmark for expected bitcoin market fluctuations. While primarily tied to IBIT ETF options, the index may offer derivative traders and institutional participants a reference for pricing and hedging.

Cboe said BITVX uses a consistent 30-day horizon, aggregating option data to deliver a model-free measure of implied volatility that reflects near-term market sentiment rather than historical price movements.

New ‘Payout Zone’

Most event contracts currently offer only two outcomes: a full payout if correct, or nothing if wrong. Cboe’s framework introduces a third option. Contracts would settle at $0, a partial payout within a defined “payout zone,” or a full $100 payout. The exchange Exchange An exchange is known as a marketplace that supports the trading of derivatives, commodities, securities, and other financial instruments.Generally, an exchange is accessible through a digital platform or sometimes at a tangible address where investors organize to perform trading. Among the chief responsibilities of an exchange would be to uphold honest and fair-trading practices. These are instrumental in making sure that the distribution of supported security rates on that exchange are effectiv An exchange is known as a marketplace that supports the trading of derivatives, commodities, securities, and other financial instruments.Generally, an exchange is accessible through a digital platform or sometimes at a tangible address where investors organize to perform trading. Among the chief responsibilities of an exchange would be to uphold honest and fair-trading practices. These are instrumental in making sure that the distribution of supported security rates on that exchange are effectiv Read this Term said this allows traders to benefit when predictions are directionally correct, even if the exact target is missed.

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JJ Kinahan, Head of Retail Expansion and Alternative Investment Products at Cboe, said the contracts “take the mechanics of a traditional vertical spread” and package them “in an intuitive, accessible format for a broader audience.” He added they provide defined risk and allow traders to “earn a partial return when traders are directionally correct.”

🔥CBOE TO REVIVE ALL-OR-NOTHING OPTIONS AMID PREDICTION MARKET BOOM

Cboe Global Markets is in early talks with brokerages to bring back all-or-nothing binary options, aiming to meet rising demand for yes-or-no wagers in financial markets.

The exchange is also discussing… pic.twitter.com/ephZ8DW6hH

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) February 2, 2026

Mini S&P 500 Contract

The first contract will be a Mini S&P 500 Index prediction market product. It allows traders to take positions on where the index may close at the end of a trading day. Participants can choose a traditional “yes” or “no” position. Alternatively, they can use the payout zone to reduce losses if the index moves in the expected direction but does not reach the exact level.

The contract will use a traditional options structure with fixed returns and settle in cash. Cboe said it will list the product on the Cboe Options Exchange, with clearing through the Options Clearing Clearing Clearing is a general term that simply means many different things depending on the subject and related industry. Most commonly, this refers to the reciprocal exchange between banks of checks and drafts, and the settlement of the differences, or the total of claims settled at a clearinghouse. In finance and banking, the word clearing has different meanings depending on the more specific business model. Moving checks from the bank where they were deposited to the bank on which they were drawn. Th Clearing is a general term that simply means many different things depending on the subject and related industry. Most commonly, this refers to the reciprocal exchange between banks of checks and drafts, and the settlement of the differences, or the total of claims settled at a clearinghouse. In finance and banking, the word clearing has different meanings depending on the more specific business model. Moving checks from the bank where they were deposited to the bank on which they were drawn. Th Read this Term Corporation. The launch is expected in the second quarter of 2026.

SPX Prediction Contracts Target Short-Dated Options

Cboe linked the product to retail demand for short-dated S&P 500 options, which averaged 580,000 vertical spread contracts per day in 2025. Rob Hocking, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe, said there is “clear customer demand to trade around market events tied to the S&P 500 Index,” and the contracts are built “directly on top of the SPX options ecosystem.”

Cameron Drinkwater of S&P Dow Jones Indices said the contracts allow new investors access through a simple structure. James Kostulias of Charles Schwab said the brokerage expects to support the products if client demand develops. Cboe may extend the framework to other indices or stocks in the future.