The AUD/USD has reached a key retracement zone. Trader reaction to this will dictate the long term direction of the pair.
The foreign currency to watch this week is the Australian dollar. Following a prolonged move up on the weekly chart, driven by a recovery in commodities and a weaker U.S. dollar, the AUD/USD may have finally reached a top.
Despite the nearly three month rally, the Reserve Bank of Australia had been fairly quiet about the price rise from .6826 to .7722 and its potential impact on the Australian economy. However, Monday’s flat retail sales report may have been the tipping point that convinces the RBA that the time is right to cut interest rates.
I’m going out on a limb because shortly before the April 5 Reserve Bank meeting, traders are only giving a cut in the current 2 percent official cash rate a 7 percent chance.
Although the majority of traders believe the RBA will keep rates on hold, some feel that Governor Glenn Stevens is feeling pressure to pull the trigger as the Aussie nears the key .8000 level. His main concern is that the Aussie’s strength could smother the current economic recovery in Australia.
Even if the RBA leaves its benchmark interest rate unchanged, it is likely to try to talk the currency lower with a change in the language of its monetary policy statement. Given the neutral tone in its March statement, Tuesday’s statement may contain language that suggests the RBA would like to see a lower Australian dollar in order to help the ongoing rebalancing of the economy.
If the RBA passes on a rate cut and leaves the language in its monetary policy statement unchanged, then this will send a message to traders that the central bank is not too concerned about the relatively high price of the currency. In this case, it will be saying that it understands the currency is going up because of the weaker dollar and higher commodity prices, but over time, the currency will level off when the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates on a consistent basis.
Going into the April 5 RBA meeting, the consensus is predicting an unchanged cash rate decision, but investors should prepare for a surprise. The odds are extremely low for a rate cut, but a change in the language of the monetary statement itself could be enough to drive the Aussie lower from its current lofty levels.
Technically, the main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, the AUD/USD has run into a cluster of resistance levels that could trigger a profit-taking break after a prolonged rally in terms of price and time.
The main range is .8162 to .6826. Its retracement zone is .7494 to .7652. This zone is essentially acting like resistance. Currently, the market is trading inside this range. Trader reaction to this zone will likely determine the longer-term direction of the market.
Last week, the AUD/USD reached a high at .7722. This week, resistance is a major long-term downtrending angle at .7692. A sustained move under these levels will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the Fibonacci level at .7652 could trigger the start of an acceleration to the downside with the first major target a major 50% level at .7494.
The 50% level at .7494 is also a trigger point for a steep break with the next major target zone coming in at .7274 to .7168.
If buyers can overcome the downtrending angle at .7692 and last week’s high at .7722 then look for a resumption of the uptrend with .7786 the next major target.
Crossing to the bullish side of the angle at .7786 this week will put the AUD/USD in an extremely bullish position.
Trader reaction to .6952 will likely determine the direction of the market over the near-term. Look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over .6952 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under .6952.
The foreign currency to watch this week is the Australian dollar. Following a prolonged move up on the weekly chart, driven by a recovery in commodities and a weaker U.S. dollar, the AUD/USD may have finally reached a top.
Despite the nearly three month rally, the Reserve Bank of Australia had been fairly quiet about the price rise from .6826 to .7722 and its potential impact on the Australian economy. However, Monday’s flat retail sales report may have been the tipping point that convinces the RBA that the time is right to cut interest rates.
I’m going out on a limb because shortly before the April 5 Reserve Bank meeting, traders are only giving a cut in the current 2 percent official cash rate a 7 percent chance.
Although the majority of traders believe the RBA will keep rates on hold, some feel that Governor Glenn Stevens is feeling pressure to pull the trigger as the Aussie nears the key .8000 level. His main concern is that the Aussie’s strength could smother the current economic recovery in Australia.
Even if the RBA leaves its benchmark interest rate unchanged, it is likely to try to talk the currency lower with a change in the language of its monetary policy statement. Given the neutral tone in its March statement, Tuesday’s statement may contain language that suggests the RBA would like to see a lower Australian dollar in order to help the ongoing rebalancing of the economy.
If the RBA passes on a rate cut and leaves the language in its monetary policy statement unchanged, then this will send a message to traders that the central bank is not too concerned about the relatively high price of the currency. In this case, it will be saying that it understands the currency is going up because of the weaker dollar and higher commodity prices, but over time, the currency will level off when the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates on a consistent basis.
Going into the April 5 RBA meeting, the consensus is predicting an unchanged cash rate decision, but investors should prepare for a surprise. The odds are extremely low for a rate cut, but a change in the language of the monetary statement itself could be enough to drive the Aussie lower from its current lofty levels.
Technically, the main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, the AUD/USD has run into a cluster of resistance levels that could trigger a profit-taking break after a prolonged rally in terms of price and time.
The main range is .8162 to .6826. Its retracement zone is .7494 to .7652. This zone is essentially acting like resistance. Currently, the market is trading inside this range. Trader reaction to this zone will likely determine the longer-term direction of the market.
Last week, the AUD/USD reached a high at .7722. This week, resistance is a major long-term downtrending angle at .7692. A sustained move under these levels will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the Fibonacci level at .7652 could trigger the start of an acceleration to the downside with the first major target a major 50% level at .7494.
The 50% level at .7494 is also a trigger point for a steep break with the next major target zone coming in at .7274 to .7168.
If buyers can overcome the downtrending angle at .7692 and last week’s high at .7722 then look for a resumption of the uptrend with .7786 the next major target.
Crossing to the bullish side of the angle at .7786 this week will put the AUD/USD in an extremely bullish position.
Trader reaction to .6952 will likely determine the direction of the market over the near-term. Look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over .6952 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under .6952.
James A. Hyerczyk is a financial analyst for FX Empire, a leading financial portal. James has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann. James A. Hyerczyk is a senior analyst at FX Empire. He has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.
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1 week to go until FMAS:24 kicks off and we couldn't skip our interviews with some of this year's sponsors 🤩 Starting off strong with Hannelé De Necker, CEO OF IFX Brokers.
See you there!
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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1 week to go until FMAS:24 kicks off and we couldn't skip our interviews with some of this year's sponsors 🤩 Starting off strong with Hannelé De Necker, CEO OF IFX Brokers.
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FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa