Initially the S&P 500 (SPX) moved down then suddenly had a very fast 14-point rally which was subsequently wiped out, and in the process took out an important double bottom in the SPX 2169 area.
That a powerful move up was quickly reversed indicates a shift in psychology from bull to bear and opens the door for more downside action very soon.
Fibonacci price targets
Using Fibonacci analysis is an incredibly accurate methodology for discovering market support and resistance zones. The recent SPX peak made on August 15th is a good example.
The first phase of the SPX 2016 bull market was from February 11th to June 8th. The peak at 2120.55 minus the February 11th bottom of 1810.10 equals 310.45 SPX points. Multiply 310.45 by the Fibonacci ratio of .618 yields 191.85 SPX points. Adding 191.85 to the June 27th bottom of 1991.67 targets SPX 2183.53. Allowing for leeway is very close to the actual peak made on August 15th at 2193.81
Assuming the August 15th top holds we can use this as the starting point to discover the next correction bottom.
Please see the daily SPX Fibonacci price targets chart in Figure 1.
A Fibonacci .236 retrace of the entire bull move from February 11th to August 15th targets SPX 2103.26
A Fibonacci .382 retrace of the move up from the June 27th bottom to August 15th targets SPX 2116.59 giving a broad target zone of 2120 to 2100.
Within the dimension of market momentum, the daily RSI is forecasting a near term move down. Note that the RSI on August 26th has moved below the level it was at the August 2nd minor bottom. SPX price is still above the August 2nd low of 2147.58, RSI is predicting a near term move below that level.
Fibonacci time targets
R.N Elliott discovered not only the wave principle that’s now named after him but he also discovered that markets sometimes move within increments related to the Fibonacci sequence. The sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, to infinity.
Please see the daily SPX Fibonacci time targets chart in Figure 2.
There are two Fibonacci time coordinates targeting August 15, as a potential SPX turning day. January 20th bottom plus 144 trading days and June 27th bottom plus 34 trading days.
Adding 13 trading days to August 15th targets September 1st as the next possible market turn which in this case would be a bottom. Very interesting that September 1st is also a new moon. Occasionally markets can turn on either new or full moons.
Summary
Fibonacci price and time analysis are powerful tools that can be used in any market. Even if the SPX fails to reach the price and time targets the tools are still useful because it tells us something else is happening. Investors and traders are always seeking an edge to improve portfolio performance adding Fibonacci analysis can give you that edge.
Further Reading: Frost A.J and Robert Prechter (1985) “Elliott Wave Principle”, New Classics Library.
This article was written by Mark Rivest, independent investment advisor, trader and writer.
Initially the S&P 500 (SPX) moved down then suddenly had a very fast 14-point rally which was subsequently wiped out, and in the process took out an important double bottom in the SPX 2169 area.
That a powerful move up was quickly reversed indicates a shift in psychology from bull to bear and opens the door for more downside action very soon.
Fibonacci price targets
Using Fibonacci analysis is an incredibly accurate methodology for discovering market support and resistance zones. The recent SPX peak made on August 15th is a good example.
The first phase of the SPX 2016 bull market was from February 11th to June 8th. The peak at 2120.55 minus the February 11th bottom of 1810.10 equals 310.45 SPX points. Multiply 310.45 by the Fibonacci ratio of .618 yields 191.85 SPX points. Adding 191.85 to the June 27th bottom of 1991.67 targets SPX 2183.53. Allowing for leeway is very close to the actual peak made on August 15th at 2193.81
Assuming the August 15th top holds we can use this as the starting point to discover the next correction bottom.
Please see the daily SPX Fibonacci price targets chart in Figure 1.
A Fibonacci .236 retrace of the entire bull move from February 11th to August 15th targets SPX 2103.26
A Fibonacci .382 retrace of the move up from the June 27th bottom to August 15th targets SPX 2116.59 giving a broad target zone of 2120 to 2100.
Within the dimension of market momentum, the daily RSI is forecasting a near term move down. Note that the RSI on August 26th has moved below the level it was at the August 2nd minor bottom. SPX price is still above the August 2nd low of 2147.58, RSI is predicting a near term move below that level.
Fibonacci time targets
R.N Elliott discovered not only the wave principle that’s now named after him but he also discovered that markets sometimes move within increments related to the Fibonacci sequence. The sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, to infinity.
Please see the daily SPX Fibonacci time targets chart in Figure 2.
There are two Fibonacci time coordinates targeting August 15, as a potential SPX turning day. January 20th bottom plus 144 trading days and June 27th bottom plus 34 trading days.
Adding 13 trading days to August 15th targets September 1st as the next possible market turn which in this case would be a bottom. Very interesting that September 1st is also a new moon. Occasionally markets can turn on either new or full moons.
Summary
Fibonacci price and time analysis are powerful tools that can be used in any market. Even if the SPX fails to reach the price and time targets the tools are still useful because it tells us something else is happening. Investors and traders are always seeking an edge to improve portfolio performance adding Fibonacci analysis can give you that edge.
Further Reading: Frost A.J and Robert Prechter (1985) “Elliott Wave Principle”, New Classics Library.
Sky Links Capital Adds LBMA Gold Fixing, Options and Weekend Trading
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The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
The trades that taught me the most aren't the ones that worked. They're the ones that didn't — or the ones I almost caught and didn't have the nerve to ride. In this session, I'll tell you about the Brexit miss, the SNB shocker that nearly handed me a 5400% return, the BoJ surprise that punched me in the gut, and a few wins along the way. Each story carries a lesson, but the lessons aren't the point. Everyone who trades long enough collects a portfolio of moments like these; what separates the people who stay in the game is what they do with them.
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If AI is the engine, data is the fuel. Without quality, accessible data, AI cannot work well; and without the right mindset, data remains just numbers instead of insight. In this session, leading experts will explore how AI and data are democratizing opportunities for businesses and personal growth. Discover practical ways to make AI accessible today, anticipate its transformative impact on African markets, and learn actionable steps to prepare for what's next. Let's talk about:
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-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
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-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
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-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
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-Emerging AI and data trends in Africa and their economic ripple effects
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-How AI and data drive business efficiency and innovation in trading and fintech
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-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
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Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
Most market post-mortems describe what happened to prices. Few describe what happened in the trading room while the position was open: the entry conviction, the moments that tested it, and the exit decision that closed the book.
This session brings one seasoned trader to the stage for an unfiltered account of the position that still defines how they think about markets.
Attendees will walk away with:
-A first-hand account of how a conviction trade is built, from thesis and entry through position management and exit
-Understanding of what turns a market observation into a live position, and what holds it when conditions shift
-Insight into how timing, execution quality, and market structure shaped the final result
-Perspective on what the trade revealed about edge, risk tolerance, and when to hold through a position moving against you
-Clarity on what separates a well-built trade from a well-timed one
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As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
As crypto and CFD trading continue to expand across Africa, access to advanced tools and market insights remains uneven. This session explores how AI and blockchain can bridge that gap by empowering informal traders and underserved communities to participate more effectively in digital financial markets. The discussion will focus on practical applications of technology to improve accessibility, education, and investment outcomes in both formal and informal sectors.
In this discussion, we will explore:
-The role of AI in democratizing access to trading tools, insights, and strategy development
-How crypto and blockchain can enable broader participation beyond traditional financial systems
-Addressing access barriers: infrastructure, education, and affordability in underserved communities
-Opportunities for brokers and platforms to tap into the informal trading economy
