June – a Hot Month for Traders?

June has all the necessary ingredients to be a month full of action.

This article was written by Vitor Oliveira, who worked for more than 20 years in the semiconductor industry and has traded full-time since December 2012. He focuses on currencies, industrial commodities and stock indices.

June promises to be a hot month!

In any hemisphere, and we are not talking about weather! Beyond the usual economic data releases, it is not very common to have a lot of significant events within a single month, some of them with great potential to vigorously move several markets, currencies, commodities and stocks at same time.

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Here they are:

On June 2 we have a new ECB meeting, where the greatest interest will be in the practical results regarding QE.

On the very same day OPEC will meet to discuss the famous production freeze, at a time when many US producers are throwing in the towel (see this article and this one), while Russia and others are still debiting at record levels and Iran is on the way to reaching pre-sanctions levels.

It will be interesting to follow another recent trend as China has greatly increased its oil imports from Russia.

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The next day, June 3, we will have the usual NFP numbers, which we believe be crucial in the current juncture of the USD against its main counterparts.

At the June 15 FOMC meeting the above factors combined with speculation about the imminent rise in interest rates will make this meeting one of the most important. There is potential for large movements in all asset classes and high volatility.

On June 23, the British people will say if they want to stay in the EU or tread an independent path. Recent surveys point to the victory of staying. However, we do not forget the failure of the polls in the Scottish referendum.

Three days later, on June 26, the Spanish people will make another attempt to find a governmental solution. Remaining are the same questions about the new political framework regarding EU membership.

Finally, June is the end of the quarter, when we have the usual expiration of key futures contracts, and the so-called ‘Triple Witching Day’ on June 30.

If you as a trader enjoy action movies, June has all the necessary ingredients to be a month full of action. Good trading !


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