Bitcoin could reach $1 million in 2025 if the US creates a strategic reserve, says a Bitwise executive.
Check the most recent BTC price prediction for 2025 and beyond.
Let's check why Bitcoin price is surging today and what are the BTC predictions for 2025
The
possibility of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $1 million milestone hinges
primarily on one crucial factor: the establishment of a U.S. government
strategic Bitcoin reserve. This assessment comes from Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, who estimates the probability of such
an initiative at less than 10% for 2025.
When Will Bitcoin Hit $1
Million? Park Has the Answer
According
to Park's latest prediction, there is a possibility that Bitcoin's price will
hit $1 million in 2025. However, the chances are only around 10%. Why this
specific probability? He assigns the same likelihood to the potential
establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the United States.
“The
idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a
10% chance event,” Park commented on X (formerly Twitter). “That's
the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.”
In a
separate post on X, he demonstrated his analysis of the probability for this
scenario to materialize.
Bitcoin Market Dynamics
and Strategic Reserve Impact
The
cryptocurrency market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with Bitcoin
currently trading at around $96,000. Park's analysis suggests that a federal
Bitcoin reserve represents the only mathematical pathway for Bitcoin to surpass
the $1 million threshold in 2025.
Legislative Framework
Senator
Cynthia Lummis has already laid the groundwork for such an initiative, introducing
draft legislation that would mandate the US Treasury to acquire 1 billion
Bitcoins over five years. This ambitious proposal has sparked intense debate
within both political and financial circles.
Market Sentiment
While Park
maintains a conservative outlook on the probability of a strategic reserve,
market sentiment appears more optimistic. Polymarket participants currently
price the likelihood of a US Bitcoin reserve at 31% for 2025.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
On Friday,
December 27, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $96,252 on Binance, with the price
continuing to move within the same November-December consolidation range. In my
analysis, Bitcoin is currently benefiting from a compelling support zone
defined by:
An upward
trendline drawn from the local minimums of mid-November (marked in red)
The 23.6%
Fibonacci retracement level measured from August lows to the current ATH,
currently at $94,500
A support
zone marked by December's local bottoms (marked in green)
Bitcoin price prediction based on a technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
We also
can't overlook the proximity to the psychological level of $90,000, which
provides additional support for the current zone. When traders return from
their Christmas and New Year's break, cryptocurrency markets should see renewed
volatility, and, in my opinion, we're likely to see a bounce from the current,
clearly established support level.
“Following this first peak, we anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer,” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel forecasted. “However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and reclaiming previous all-time highs by the end of the year.”
ETF Impact
The
cryptocurrency market has already witnessed substantial institutional interest,
with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $36 billion in inflows. This trend is
expected to continue, potentially supporting price appreciation even without
government intervention.
Economic and Political
Factors
Trump Administration
Influence
The
incoming Trump administration's stance on cryptocurrency regulation could
significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory. The president-elect has expressed
support for the concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, though specific details
remain unclear.
Federal Reserve
Considerations
Market
dynamics could be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
decisions. Recent adjustments to interest rate cut expectations have already
demonstrated their capacity to affect Bitcoin prices.
Market Implications
The
establishment of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve would represent an
unprecedented level of governmental cryptocurrency adoption. Such a move could
trigger a cascading effect, potentially prompting other nations to follow suit
and dramatically accelerating Bitcoin's price appreciation.
Supply Dynamics
With only
21 million Bitcoins possible and 19.79 million already in circulation, any
significant government purchasing program would create substantial upward price
pressure.
While
Park's assessment suggests the million-dollar Bitcoin scenario remains a
low-probability event for 2025, the mere possibility has captured the
cryptocurrency community's attention. The market continues to mature, with
institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and potential government
initiatives shaping its evolution.
Multiple
analysts and industry experts suggest Bitcoin could eventually reach the $1
million milestone, though with varying timelines. Cathie Wood maintains this
target could be achieved by 2030, while others tie this possibility to specific
catalysts like the establishment of a U.S. federal Bitcoin reserve. Bitwise's
Jeff Park suggests this level is achievable in 2025, but only with a 10%
probability linked to government strategic reserve implementation.
Will Bitcoin reach $1
million by 2025?
The
likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2025 appears low, with most
conservative estimates placing Bitcoin between $120,000 and $200,000 by then.
Bernstein analysts recently upgraded their 2025 forecast to $200,000, while
Investing Haven suggests a range of $75,500 to $155,000. The million-dollar
threshold in 2025 would likely require extraordinary catalysts, such as the
proposed federal Bitcoin reserve.
How high will Bitcoin go
in 2030?
Projections
for 2030 vary significantly among analysts. Changelly predicts an average price
of $574,902, while more conservative estimates from Coinpedia suggest $312,767.
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest maintains one of the most bullish outlooks, projecting
Bitcoin to exceed $1 million by 2030. These forecasts assume continued
institutional adoption and favorable regulatory developments.
How high will Bitcoin hit?
Long-term
projections suggest Bitcoin could reach between $1.4 million and $2.1 million
by 2050, with an average price of $1.77 million. However, near-term
expectations are more modest, with most analysts focusing on the $200,000 level
by 2025. The ultimate price ceiling depends on various factors, including
institutional adoption, regulatory environment, and potential government
involvement in the market.
The
possibility of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $1 million milestone hinges
primarily on one crucial factor: the establishment of a U.S. government
strategic Bitcoin reserve. This assessment comes from Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, who estimates the probability of such
an initiative at less than 10% for 2025.
When Will Bitcoin Hit $1
Million? Park Has the Answer
According
to Park's latest prediction, there is a possibility that Bitcoin's price will
hit $1 million in 2025. However, the chances are only around 10%. Why this
specific probability? He assigns the same likelihood to the potential
establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the United States.
“The
idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a
10% chance event,” Park commented on X (formerly Twitter). “That's
the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.”
In a
separate post on X, he demonstrated his analysis of the probability for this
scenario to materialize.
Bitcoin Market Dynamics
and Strategic Reserve Impact
The
cryptocurrency market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with Bitcoin
currently trading at around $96,000. Park's analysis suggests that a federal
Bitcoin reserve represents the only mathematical pathway for Bitcoin to surpass
the $1 million threshold in 2025.
Legislative Framework
Senator
Cynthia Lummis has already laid the groundwork for such an initiative, introducing
draft legislation that would mandate the US Treasury to acquire 1 billion
Bitcoins over five years. This ambitious proposal has sparked intense debate
within both political and financial circles.
Market Sentiment
While Park
maintains a conservative outlook on the probability of a strategic reserve,
market sentiment appears more optimistic. Polymarket participants currently
price the likelihood of a US Bitcoin reserve at 31% for 2025.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
On Friday,
December 27, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $96,252 on Binance, with the price
continuing to move within the same November-December consolidation range. In my
analysis, Bitcoin is currently benefiting from a compelling support zone
defined by:
An upward
trendline drawn from the local minimums of mid-November (marked in red)
The 23.6%
Fibonacci retracement level measured from August lows to the current ATH,
currently at $94,500
A support
zone marked by December's local bottoms (marked in green)
Bitcoin price prediction based on a technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
We also
can't overlook the proximity to the psychological level of $90,000, which
provides additional support for the current zone. When traders return from
their Christmas and New Year's break, cryptocurrency markets should see renewed
volatility, and, in my opinion, we're likely to see a bounce from the current,
clearly established support level.
“Following this first peak, we anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer,” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel forecasted. “However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and reclaiming previous all-time highs by the end of the year.”
ETF Impact
The
cryptocurrency market has already witnessed substantial institutional interest,
with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $36 billion in inflows. This trend is
expected to continue, potentially supporting price appreciation even without
government intervention.
Economic and Political
Factors
Trump Administration
Influence
The
incoming Trump administration's stance on cryptocurrency regulation could
significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory. The president-elect has expressed
support for the concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, though specific details
remain unclear.
Federal Reserve
Considerations
Market
dynamics could be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
decisions. Recent adjustments to interest rate cut expectations have already
demonstrated their capacity to affect Bitcoin prices.
Market Implications
The
establishment of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve would represent an
unprecedented level of governmental cryptocurrency adoption. Such a move could
trigger a cascading effect, potentially prompting other nations to follow suit
and dramatically accelerating Bitcoin's price appreciation.
Supply Dynamics
With only
21 million Bitcoins possible and 19.79 million already in circulation, any
significant government purchasing program would create substantial upward price
pressure.
While
Park's assessment suggests the million-dollar Bitcoin scenario remains a
low-probability event for 2025, the mere possibility has captured the
cryptocurrency community's attention. The market continues to mature, with
institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and potential government
initiatives shaping its evolution.
Multiple
analysts and industry experts suggest Bitcoin could eventually reach the $1
million milestone, though with varying timelines. Cathie Wood maintains this
target could be achieved by 2030, while others tie this possibility to specific
catalysts like the establishment of a U.S. federal Bitcoin reserve. Bitwise's
Jeff Park suggests this level is achievable in 2025, but only with a 10%
probability linked to government strategic reserve implementation.
Will Bitcoin reach $1
million by 2025?
The
likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2025 appears low, with most
conservative estimates placing Bitcoin between $120,000 and $200,000 by then.
Bernstein analysts recently upgraded their 2025 forecast to $200,000, while
Investing Haven suggests a range of $75,500 to $155,000. The million-dollar
threshold in 2025 would likely require extraordinary catalysts, such as the
proposed federal Bitcoin reserve.
How high will Bitcoin go
in 2030?
Projections
for 2030 vary significantly among analysts. Changelly predicts an average price
of $574,902, while more conservative estimates from Coinpedia suggest $312,767.
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest maintains one of the most bullish outlooks, projecting
Bitcoin to exceed $1 million by 2030. These forecasts assume continued
institutional adoption and favorable regulatory developments.
How high will Bitcoin hit?
Long-term
projections suggest Bitcoin could reach between $1.4 million and $2.1 million
by 2050, with an average price of $1.77 million. However, near-term
expectations are more modest, with most analysts focusing on the $200,000 level
by 2025. The ultimate price ceiling depends on various factors, including
institutional adoption, regulatory environment, and potential government
involvement in the market.
Damian's adventure with financial markets began at the Cracow University of Economics, where he obtained his MA in finance and accounting. Starting from the retail trader perspective, he collaborated with brokerage houses and financial portals in Poland as an independent editor and content manager. His adventure with Finance Magnates began in 2016, where he is working as a business intelligence analyst.
Kraken–Deutsche Börse Pact Targets Unified Trading Across Crypto, Stocks and Futures
Marketing in 2026 Audiences, Costs, and Smarter AI
Marketing in 2026 Audiences, Costs, and Smarter AI
As brokers eye B2B business and compete with fintechs and crypto exchanges alike, marketers need to act wisely with often limited budgets. AI can offer scalable solutions, but only if used properly.
Join seasoned marketing executives and specialists as they discuss the main challenges they identify in financial services in 2026 and how they address them.
Attendees of this session will walk away with:
- A nuts-and-bolts account of acquisition costs across platforms and geos
- Analysis of today’s multi-layered audience segments and differences in behaviour
- First-hand account of how global brokers balance consistency and local flavour
- Notes from the field about intelligently using AI and automation in marketing
Speakers:
-Yam Yehoshua, Editor-In-Chief at Finance Magnates
-Federico Paderni, Managing Director for Growth Markets in Europe at X
-Jo Benton, Chief Marketing Officer, Consulting | Fractional CMO
-Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive
-Roberto Napolitano, CMO at Innovate Finance
-Tony Cross, Director at Monk Communications
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #FintechMarketing #AI #DigitalStrategy #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
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🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As brokers eye B2B business and compete with fintechs and crypto exchanges alike, marketers need to act wisely with often limited budgets. AI can offer scalable solutions, but only if used properly.
Join seasoned marketing executives and specialists as they discuss the main challenges they identify in financial services in 2026 and how they address them.
Attendees of this session will walk away with:
- A nuts-and-bolts account of acquisition costs across platforms and geos
- Analysis of today’s multi-layered audience segments and differences in behaviour
- First-hand account of how global brokers balance consistency and local flavour
- Notes from the field about intelligently using AI and automation in marketing
Speakers:
-Yam Yehoshua, Editor-In-Chief at Finance Magnates
-Federico Paderni, Managing Director for Growth Markets in Europe at X
-Jo Benton, Chief Marketing Officer, Consulting | Fractional CMO
-Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive
-Roberto Napolitano, CMO at Innovate Finance
-Tony Cross, Director at Monk Communications
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #FintechMarketing #AI #DigitalStrategy #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
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Much like their traders in the market, brokers must diversify to manage risk and stay resilient. But that can get costly, clunky, and lengthy.
This candid panel brings together builders across the trading infrastructure space to uncover the shifting dynamics behind tools, interfaces, and full-stack ambitions.
Attendees will hear:
-Why platform dependency has become one of the most overlooked risks in the trading business?
-Buy vs. build: What do hybrid models look like, and why are industry graveyards filled with failed ‘killer apps’?
-How AI is already changing execution, risk, and reporting—and what’s next?
-Which features, assets, and tools gain the most traction, and where brokers should look for tech-driven retention?
Speakers:
-Stephen Miles, Chief Revenue Officer at FYNXT
-John Morris, Co-Founder at FXBlue
-Matthew Smith, Group Chair & CEO at EC Markets
-Tom Higgins, Founder & CEO at Gold-i
-Gil Ben Hur, Founder at 5% Group
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #Trading #Fintech #FintechInnovation #TradingTechnology #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Much like their traders in the market, brokers must diversify to manage risk and stay resilient. But that can get costly, clunky, and lengthy.
This candid panel brings together builders across the trading infrastructure space to uncover the shifting dynamics behind tools, interfaces, and full-stack ambitions.
Attendees will hear:
-Why platform dependency has become one of the most overlooked risks in the trading business?
-Buy vs. build: What do hybrid models look like, and why are industry graveyards filled with failed ‘killer apps’?
-How AI is already changing execution, risk, and reporting—and what’s next?
-Which features, assets, and tools gain the most traction, and where brokers should look for tech-driven retention?
Speakers:
-Stephen Miles, Chief Revenue Officer at FYNXT
-John Morris, Co-Founder at FXBlue
-Matthew Smith, Group Chair & CEO at EC Markets
-Tom Higgins, Founder & CEO at Gold-i
-Gil Ben Hur, Founder at 5% Group
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #Trading #Fintech #FintechInnovation #TradingTechnology #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Educators, IBs, And Other Regional Growth Drivers
Educators, IBs, And Other Regional Growth Drivers
When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers.
This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025.
Key Themes:
- Building trader communities through education and local expertise
- Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies
- Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition
- What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets
-Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill
-Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers.
This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025.
Key Themes:
- Building trader communities through education and local expertise
- Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies
- Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition
- What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets
-Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill
-Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
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🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
The Leap to Everything App: Are Brokers There Yet?
The Leap to Everything App: Are Brokers There Yet?
As the arms race to bundle investing, personal finance, and wallets under super apps grows fiercer, brokers are caught between a rock and a hard place.
This session explores unexpected ways for industry players to collaborate as consumer habits evolve, competitors eye the traffic, and regulation becomes more nuanced.
Speakers:
-Laura McCracken,CEO | Advisory Board Member at Blackheath Advisors | The Payments Association
-Slobodan Manojlović,Vice President | Lead Software Engineer at JP Morgan Chase & Co.
-Jordan Sinclair, President at Robinhood UK
-Simon Pelletier, Head of Product at Yuh
Gerald Perez, CEO at Interactive Brokers UK
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
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🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
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As the arms race to bundle investing, personal finance, and wallets under super apps grows fiercer, brokers are caught between a rock and a hard place.
This session explores unexpected ways for industry players to collaborate as consumer habits evolve, competitors eye the traffic, and regulation becomes more nuanced.
Speakers:
-Laura McCracken,CEO | Advisory Board Member at Blackheath Advisors | The Payments Association
-Slobodan Manojlović,Vice President | Lead Software Engineer at JP Morgan Chase & Co.
-Jordan Sinclair, President at Robinhood UK
-Simon Pelletier, Head of Product at Yuh
Gerald Perez, CEO at Interactive Brokers UK
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
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Mind The Gap: Can Retail Investors Save the UK Stock Market?
Mind The Gap: Can Retail Investors Save the UK Stock Market?
As the dire state of listing and investment in the UK goes from a financial services problem to a national challenge, the retail investing industry is taken to task.
Join a host of executives and experts for a candid conversation about the future of millions of Brits, as seen from a financial services standpoint:
-Are they happy with the Leeds Reform, in principle and in practice?
-Is it the government’s job to affect the ‘saver’ mentality? Is it doing well?
-What can brokers and fintechs do to spur UK investment?
-How can the FCA balance greater flexibility with consumer protection?
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Nicola Higgs, Partner at Latham & Watkins
-Dan Lane, Investment Content Lead at Robinhood UK
-Jack Crone, PR & Public Affairs Lead at IG
-David Belle, Founder at Fink Money
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #RetailInvesting #UKFinance
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As the dire state of listing and investment in the UK goes from a financial services problem to a national challenge, the retail investing industry is taken to task.
Join a host of executives and experts for a candid conversation about the future of millions of Brits, as seen from a financial services standpoint:
-Are they happy with the Leeds Reform, in principle and in practice?
-Is it the government’s job to affect the ‘saver’ mentality? Is it doing well?
-What can brokers and fintechs do to spur UK investment?
-How can the FCA balance greater flexibility with consumer protection?
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Nicola Higgs, Partner at Latham & Watkins
-Dan Lane, Investment Content Lead at Robinhood UK
-Jack Crone, PR & Public Affairs Lead at IG
-David Belle, Founder at Fink Money
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #RetailInvesting #UKFinance
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
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