Russia's plan to float its currency by 2015 is becoming a reality and will lessen the degree of intervention in its managed foreign exchange regime and follows its new role of financial markets watchdog.
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has announced an increase in the range that its currency the ruble (RUB) can trade, effective from October 7, 2013, as part of a gradual transition towards a free floating exchange rate by 2015.
The increase was from 1 to 3.1 rubles in the "neutral" range of the USD-EURO dual-currency basket (the basket consists of 0.45 euros and 0.55 US dollars for each ruble) will enable the pegged currency to float freely within that new widened range. As prices deviate away from either side of the neutral range (towards the upper/lower boundaries), the floating operational band boundaries are automatically adjusted depending on the amount of FX interventions required, which forms the range of admitted values for the dual-currency basket.
Thanks to the new widened neutral range the degree and frequency of intervention needed has been mitigated slightly since the central bank does not intervene in the neutral range. The required level of interventions that had taken place previously, has since been shifted towards both ends of the 7 ruble wide corridor of RUB 32.30 - 39.30 (which has not widened or changed since July) . The further the ruble moves away from the 3.1 ruble neutral range toward the the center, the greater the level of intervention required. This is currently targeted near $120mln to as much as $400mln, in order to smooth excess volatility in the ruble exchange rate which is set by the CBR on a managed basis.
Step Towards Modernized FX Monetary Policy
As per the official statement, the changes implemented by the CBR should contribute to strengthening the effectiveness of the interest rate policy it conducts, ensuring price stability in the countries native currency. Figure 3 below shows the revised neutral range that the currency can now float freely within:
In addition, the central bank has increased efforts towards greater transparency by also broadening the number of parameters and information disclosed pertaining to its FX policy implementation. Originally known as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Also known as Bank of Russia) the CBR was founded on July 13, 1990, and today maintains the federation’s monetary reserves of nearly $523bln (USD).
Change in Regulatory Authority
This new shift in monetary policy may allow the currency to weaken in order to more accurately reflect Russia's present economic condition. This in turn may stabilize the economy if a more modernized monetary policy can be consistently applied, while bringing balance to inflationary drivers. The CBR's board of directors recently revised its inflation target from 4.5% to 5% in 2014.
The CBR reported average daily trading volumes of $74.12bln worth of FX Spot transactions across all traded currencies in April 2013. According to the latest survey from the CBR in April 2013, which gathered totals for Forex exchange activity, there was $1.63 trillion worth of currency traded in April (over 22 trading days) reported from 40 dealers, with 75% of the volumes concentrated in the top 16 dealers. Of the 40 reporting dealers, 27 had reported retail-driven flows and at least 3 were prime-brokered.
The average daily FX spot volumes were $74.12bln per day over the 22 trading days in April 2013. These totals were submitted by the central bank to the Bank on International Settlements (BIS) which concluded its most recent triennial survey using April’s volumes from central banks in more than 53 jurisdictions worldwide. By comparison, Russia’s average daily FX volumes account for roughly 1.3% of average global daily turnover (in comparison to the BIS reported statistics). Last week, Forex Magnates covered volumes figures reported in September 2013 by the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX).
IMF Perspective
According to a transcript from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on its speech about the World Economic Outlook at the annual meeting with the World Bank Group in Washington on October 8 2013, the revised GDP forecast for Russia was lowered (along with many other regions in the world) as described below. Questions were posed to the IMF during the session, as to the reason for its lowered revision to 1.5% growth forecasted for this year in Russia, and how the Russian authorities have taken the unusual step of publicly disputing the projection by saying the forecast should be closer to 2% growth.
As for the reasons for the more pessimistic view for Russia in 2013 by the IMF, cyclical and structural issues were to blame. Specifically, the structural issue was related to low potential growth and a business climate that has not been very supportive of investment, both of which had been weighing on activity. The first half of this year was noted as below previous expectations (and "not good"). However, the second half is expected to see a modest recovery, according to the IMF, partly helped by stronger demand from abroad, and with growth expected to move back up around 3% in the start of 2014.
_________
Excerpt from the World Economic Outlook Report, table 1.2.2. forecasts Russia's 5 year GDP at 3.5% or 1.1 basis point lower than the previous 5 year average (of 4.4%):
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has announced an increase in the range that its currency the ruble (RUB) can trade, effective from October 7, 2013, as part of a gradual transition towards a free floating exchange rate by 2015.
The increase was from 1 to 3.1 rubles in the "neutral" range of the USD-EURO dual-currency basket (the basket consists of 0.45 euros and 0.55 US dollars for each ruble) will enable the pegged currency to float freely within that new widened range. As prices deviate away from either side of the neutral range (towards the upper/lower boundaries), the floating operational band boundaries are automatically adjusted depending on the amount of FX interventions required, which forms the range of admitted values for the dual-currency basket.
Thanks to the new widened neutral range the degree and frequency of intervention needed has been mitigated slightly since the central bank does not intervene in the neutral range. The required level of interventions that had taken place previously, has since been shifted towards both ends of the 7 ruble wide corridor of RUB 32.30 - 39.30 (which has not widened or changed since July) . The further the ruble moves away from the 3.1 ruble neutral range toward the the center, the greater the level of intervention required. This is currently targeted near $120mln to as much as $400mln, in order to smooth excess volatility in the ruble exchange rate which is set by the CBR on a managed basis.
Step Towards Modernized FX Monetary Policy
As per the official statement, the changes implemented by the CBR should contribute to strengthening the effectiveness of the interest rate policy it conducts, ensuring price stability in the countries native currency. Figure 3 below shows the revised neutral range that the currency can now float freely within:
In addition, the central bank has increased efforts towards greater transparency by also broadening the number of parameters and information disclosed pertaining to its FX policy implementation. Originally known as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Also known as Bank of Russia) the CBR was founded on July 13, 1990, and today maintains the federation’s monetary reserves of nearly $523bln (USD).
Change in Regulatory Authority
This new shift in monetary policy may allow the currency to weaken in order to more accurately reflect Russia's present economic condition. This in turn may stabilize the economy if a more modernized monetary policy can be consistently applied, while bringing balance to inflationary drivers. The CBR's board of directors recently revised its inflation target from 4.5% to 5% in 2014.
The CBR reported average daily trading volumes of $74.12bln worth of FX Spot transactions across all traded currencies in April 2013. According to the latest survey from the CBR in April 2013, which gathered totals for Forex exchange activity, there was $1.63 trillion worth of currency traded in April (over 22 trading days) reported from 40 dealers, with 75% of the volumes concentrated in the top 16 dealers. Of the 40 reporting dealers, 27 had reported retail-driven flows and at least 3 were prime-brokered.
The average daily FX spot volumes were $74.12bln per day over the 22 trading days in April 2013. These totals were submitted by the central bank to the Bank on International Settlements (BIS) which concluded its most recent triennial survey using April’s volumes from central banks in more than 53 jurisdictions worldwide. By comparison, Russia’s average daily FX volumes account for roughly 1.3% of average global daily turnover (in comparison to the BIS reported statistics). Last week, Forex Magnates covered volumes figures reported in September 2013 by the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX).
IMF Perspective
According to a transcript from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on its speech about the World Economic Outlook at the annual meeting with the World Bank Group in Washington on October 8 2013, the revised GDP forecast for Russia was lowered (along with many other regions in the world) as described below. Questions were posed to the IMF during the session, as to the reason for its lowered revision to 1.5% growth forecasted for this year in Russia, and how the Russian authorities have taken the unusual step of publicly disputing the projection by saying the forecast should be closer to 2% growth.
As for the reasons for the more pessimistic view for Russia in 2013 by the IMF, cyclical and structural issues were to blame. Specifically, the structural issue was related to low potential growth and a business climate that has not been very supportive of investment, both of which had been weighing on activity. The first half of this year was noted as below previous expectations (and "not good"). However, the second half is expected to see a modest recovery, according to the IMF, partly helped by stronger demand from abroad, and with growth expected to move back up around 3% in the start of 2014.
_________
Excerpt from the World Economic Outlook Report, table 1.2.2. forecasts Russia's 5 year GDP at 3.5% or 1.1 basis point lower than the previous 5 year average (of 4.4%):
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔