XRP trades at $1.63 on Monday, February 2, 2026, up 2.5% but offering little comfort after five consecutive down sessions pushed the cryptocurrency to its lowest level since November 2024.

In this article, I'll explain why XRP is falling today and provide detailed technical analysis of the XRP/USDT chart with three downside targets.

Why XRP Is Falling?

Crypto Market Collapse: $2.2 Billion Liquidated

XRP's weakness stems from systemic crypto market failure. Saturday's crash saw $2.2 billion in futures liquidations, dubbed "Black Sunday II,” with 335,000 traders wiped out. XRP dropped 10% to $1.58 during the weekend selloff, extending weekly losses to -11.48%.

Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, confirms the damage: "Bitcoin has dropped to lows not seen since April last year as continued risk-off sentiment weighs on markets. Approximately $1.5 billion worth of long bitcoin perpetual futures positions were liquidated across Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.49 billion in outflows last week, with Thursday seeing $817.8 million, the fourth largest day for recorded outflows since the spot bitcoin Bitcoin While some may still be wondering what is Bitcoin, who created Bitcoin, or how does Bitcoin work, one thing is certain: Bitcoin has changed the world.No one can remain indifferent to this revolutionary, decentralized, digital asset nor to its blockchain technology.In fact, we’ve gone a long way ever since a Florida resident Laszlo Hanyecz made BTC’s first official commercial transaction with a real company by trading 10,000 Bitcoins for 2 pizzas at his local Papa John’s.One could now argue that While some may still be wondering what is Bitcoin, who created Bitcoin, or how does Bitcoin work, one thing is certain: Bitcoin has changed the world.No one can remain indifferent to this revolutionary, decentralized, digital asset nor to its blockchain technology.In fact, we’ve gone a long way ever since a Florida resident Laszlo Hanyecz made BTC’s first official commercial transaction with a real company by trading 10,000 Bitcoins for 2 pizzas at his local Papa John’s.One could now argue that Read this Term ETFs launched two-years ago."

The altcoin carnage hit hard. Peters notes: "Altcoins have also been hit hard, with the total market capitalisation excluding bitcoin falling 11% to $1.02 trillion".

The broader crypto selloff mirrors Bitcoin's drop to my $74k mid-term target and the historic gold/silver crash that wiped $15 trillion from precious metals markets.

XRP-Specific Triggers

Beyond broader crypto weakness, XRP faces specific pressures.

Geopolitical tensions are weighing heavily on risk assets. Vasily Shilov, CBDO at SwapSpace, points to concerns surrounding the situation with Iran as the main news factor dragging markets lower. But Saturday's decline was likely exacerbated by something unexpected: the release of new documents in the Jeffrey Epstein case containing significant incriminating evidence against Trump.

These materials also mention Strategy CEO Michael Saylor in extremely negative terms, and given that Strategy controls massive Bitcoin holdings, the revelation may have fueled weekend selling when liquidity was already thin.

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The Federal Reserve chair transition added another layer of uncertainty. Paul Howard, Director at Wincent, notes the irony: "What was meant to be a bullish move for the markets rotating out Fed chairman to Warsh appears to have (at least) coincided with a broad risk sell-off the last 24h."

Howard emphasizes this is likely temporary turbulence rather than a fundamental shift. "What we are seeing is more likely to be a knee-jerk reaction," he explains. Looking ahead, "this will bring faster structural change on the way macro economic policy is implemented by an administration we know is already in favor of a progressive crypto landscape."

XRP's technical weakness compounds these macro factors, with the token breaking critical support levels during thin weekend liquidity when even modest selling pressure can trigger outsized price moves.

XRP Technical Analysis: Three Downside Targets

XRP quickly realized my first short-term bearish target of $1.80 (mid-December lows), which I outlined in my previous analysis. The cryptocurrency is now forming short-term support between $1.51-1.60, but I view this as only a temporary pause before continued depreciation.

My Three Targets:

Target 1: $1.80 (ACHIEVED)

• Mid-December lows
• Broken on Friday's selloff

Target 2: $1.25-1.26 (Medium-term)

• October 10 flash crash Flash Crash The Flash Crash was a major stock market crash that happened on May 6, 2010 in which three major US indices crashed in the span of 36 minutes.In particular, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 9% before rebounding within minutes. The event differed from other crashes in that most losses were recovered.The crash was believed to be caused in part by Navinder Singh Sarao, a British financial trader. Sarao was later charged with spoofing algorithms, utilized j The Flash Crash was a major stock market crash that happened on May 6, 2010 in which three major US indices crashed in the span of 36 minutes.In particular, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 9% before rebounding within minutes. The event differed from other crashes in that most losses were recovered.The crash was believed to be caused in part by Navinder Singh Sarao, a British financial trader. Sarao was later charged with spoofing algorithms, utilized j Read this Term lows
• Next major support zone
• Primary downside objective

Target 3: $0.53 (Ultra-bearish)

• 100% Fibonacci extension measured on last year's downtrend
• Based on December corrective rally
• Represents -67% from current levels

Follow me on X for more crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk

Bullish Reversal Requirements

What would change my bearish outlook? A return above $1.80 resistance is definitely not enough. I would expect at minimum:

• Reclaim $2.00 psychological level and 50 EMA
• Break downtrend line from July highs (tested multiple times)
• Close above 200 EMA at $2.20 (uptrend/downtrend separator)
• Breakout above $2.35 (early 2026 highs)

Only then would XRP bulls truly free themselves from bearish control, opening the path to $2.66 (October highs) and eventually the $3.00 psychological level. But currently, these are just "what-ifs."

XRP Market Outlook

XRP's -20.25% monthly and -44.17% yearly performance reflects deep structural weakness. While Monday's 2.5% bounce offers temporary relief, the downtrend from July highs remains firmly intact with the 200 EMA acting as a ceiling.

Paul Howard's longer-term view provides some hope: "This will bring faster structural change on the way macro economic policy is implemented by an administration we know is already in favor of a progressive crypto landscape." However, short-term technicals point decisively lower.

I'm targeting $1.25-1.26 as the next destination, with the $0.53 ultra-bearish scenario remaining on the table if broader crypto weakness persists. XRP needs a decisive break above $2.20-2.35 to invalidate this bearish outlook—currently, that looks unlikely.

FAQ, XRP Price Analysis

Why is XRP going down today?

XRP fell to $1.60 (lowest since Nov 2024) after five straight red days amid $2.2B crypto liquidations, $1.49B Bitcoin ETF outflows, and altcoin market cap dropping 11% to $1.02T. Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination, Iran tensions, and Epstein document releases mentioning Michael Saylor triggered risk-off sentiment.

How low can XRP go?

XRP hit my first target at $1.80 (mid-Dec lows). My medium-term target is $1.25-1.26 (Oct flash crash lows), with an ultra-bearish scenario at $0.53 based on 100% Fibonacci extension, representing a potential 67% decline from current $1.63 levels. Short-term support exists at $1.51-1.60.

Will XRP recover?

Recovery requires breaking the July downtrend line and reclaiming $2.00, $2.20 (200 EMA), and $2.35 (2026 highs) to open paths toward $2.66 and $3.00. Currently down 20.25% monthly and 44.17% yearly, XRP shows no technical signs of trend reversal. Paul Howard notes long-term "progressive crypto landscape" potential, but short-term outlook remains bearish.

Is XRP a buy now?

XRP is testing $1.51-1.60 support after falling 11.48% in seven days, but I view this as only a temporary pause before targeting $1.25-1.26. With the downtrend from July highs intact, 200 EMA resistance at $2.20, and broader crypto weakness ($2.2B weekend liquidations), extreme caution is warranted. Wait for clear trend break above $2.35 before considering long positions.