Gold Drops 3%, but Bullish EMA Cross Keeps $4900 Price Prediction Alive

Gold traded at $4,448.47 at 10:13 UTC on Monday, August 31, about 5.3% below last week's three-month high. XAU/USD reached $4,697.66 on Tuesday before a 3.18% fall on Friday pulled it back into a former resistance zone.

The correction was sharp, but it has not erased the bullish setup. The 50-day exponential moving average has crossed above the 200-day EMA, while price remains inside the broad $4,370-$4,546 support band marked on my daily chart.

That is a meaningful change from my August 17 gold analysis. I said a daily close above $4,546 would reopen $4,755 and $4,855. Gold cleared the trigger and came within about $58 of the first target before reversing.

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Why the 3% Gold Price Drop Has Not Broken the Setup

The resistance cluster identified earlier this month has changed roles. The descending trend line was broken, and the horizontal band from $4,370.647 to $4,546.045 is now being tested from above as support.

The faster average has also completed the confirmation that was missing two weeks ago. EMA 50 now stands at $4,335.958, above EMA 200 at $4,314.376. Both lines are rising beneath the market and converge with the broken trend line just below the green support zone.

This creates several layers of support in a relatively narrow area. The first is $4,442.870 inside the green band, followed by its lower boundary near $4,370.647. The third is the moving-average cluster between approximately $4,314 and $4,336.

Can Gold Reach $4,855 After the Correction?

My base case remains a recovery toward $4,755.835, followed by the April resistance area at $4,855.571, as long as the support cluster holds. The second target is about 9.2% above the chart's $4,448.47 reference price.

The market still has work to do before that route becomes active again. Gold must first reclaim the top of the green band near $4,546, then break Tuesday's $4,697.66 high. A daily close above that high would leave only about 1.2% to the first target.

The bullish crossover improves the medium-term structure, but it does not make the target automatic. Friday's selloff showed how quickly a stretched move can reverse, and Goldman Sachs Research warned on August 28 that options hedging may amplify price swings in both directions.

Goldman Sachs and UBS See Higher Gold Prices

My $4,855 chart target also sits close to the latest institutional projections. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts $4,900 gold by the end of 2026, about 10.2% above my chart's reference price.

The bank expects central banks to buy an average of 50 tonnes per month in 2026, compared with 17 tonnes before 2022. Its activity nowcast accelerated to 100 tonnes per month in June on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis.

Goldman's Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven also said the bank's $4,900 forecast does not include the elevated demand for derivatives used as policy-risk hedges. They see extra upside risk from that demand, together with greater volatility Volatility In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, or stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Trad In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, or stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Trad Read this Term when dealers adjust their hedges.

UBS issued an even higher target on August 25. Its Chief Investment Office expects gold to reach $5,400 over the next 12 months, supported by dollar diversification, renewed exchange-traded fund inflows and central-bank buying.

The two bank forecasts do not validate a technical target by themselves, but they show that the $4,855 scenario is within the range major institutions consider plausible.

Analysts Split on Whether the Pullback Is Finished

The immediate outlook is less settled. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex Forex Foreign exchange or forex is the act of converting one nation’s currency into another nation’s currency (that possesses a different currency); for example, the converting of British Pounds into US Dollars, and vice versa. The exchange of currencies can be done over a physical counter, such as at a Bureau de Change, or over the internet via broker platforms, where currency speculation takes place, known as forex trading.The foreign exchange market, by its very nature, is the world’s largest tradi Foreign exchange or forex is the act of converting one nation’s currency into another nation’s currency (that possesses a different currency); for example, the converting of British Pounds into US Dollars, and vice versa. The exchange of currencies can be done over a physical counter, such as at a Bureau de Change, or over the internet via broker platforms, where currency speculation takes place, known as forex trading.The foreign exchange market, by its very nature, is the world’s largest tradi Read this Term told Kitco News that momentum was rolling over after gold peaked near $4,697. Following Friday's slide, he shifted his downside focus to $4,440 and potentially $4,360.

Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro took the opposite view in the same survey. He treated the late-week fall as a local shakeout after an 8.5% five-day rally and argued that profit-taking had reduced short-term overbought conditions, leaving room for another move higher.

My chart places the dividing line between those views at $4,370. A daily close below that level would weaken the support-flip thesis. A close below both EMAs, particularly the 200-day line near $4,314, would invalidate my bullish base case and expose $4,107, followed by $3,958.

Friday's US employment report is the next scheduled test. A stronger dollar and renewed rate-hike expectations could force a retest of the EMA cluster, while a softer result would give buyers another chance to reclaim $4,546 and challenge $4,698.