AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

Talking Points AUDUSD surges post FOMC- Weekly opening-range high in view Key Australian Labor Report to threaten the near-term


Talking Points

  • AUDUSD surges post FOMC- Weekly opening-range high in view
  • Key Australian Labor Report to threaten the near-term reversal
  • Immediate focus is higher- broader bullish invalidation at 7400

AUDUSD 30min

AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD reversed course sharply on the back of today’s FOMC interest rate decision where the committee cited a more dovish tone on the outlook for rates moving forward. The reversal has taken Aussie back through the weekly open with the pair looking to mark a daily outside reversal candle (bullish).

Interim resistance is being tested at the 78.6% retracement of the decline at 7554 with a breach above confluence resistance at the weekly opening-range high / the April low-day close at 7590/92 targeting a more critical resistance zone at 7644/52. This level is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the May decline and the 1.6185% extension of the advance off the 2016 low. Interim support rests at 7481/89 backed by 7442 & our bullish invalidation level at 7407. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since March 1st with positioning climbing to an extreme of -2 early in the month
  • Retail FX sentiment continues to move away from recent extremes as the ratio currently stands at -1.49 even as short positions have fallen 25% from the previous week- suggesting that short interest may be waning

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

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Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/USD Post-FOMC Rally at Risk Ahead of Australian Labor Report

Other Setups in Play:

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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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original source

By: Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
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