prediction markets
“It’s All the Questions About Our Future”: IBKR Founder Notes 49.5% Make Money in Prediction Markets
- Thomas Peterffy said, “options can go to zero too,” arguing prediction markets are not just betting tools.
- Regulation is needed to prevent manipulation and prohibit war or military-related questions.
Friday, 09/01/2026 | 16:40 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Kalshi CEO Draws Battle Lines Over Insider Trading, Highlighting Deep Industry Divide
- The Polymarket insider trading controversy has exposed a sharp divide between regulated prediction markets and offshore platforms.
- As scrutiny grows, competition in prediction markets is shifting away from product features toward regulation, governance, and institutional credibility.
Thursday, 08/01/2026 | 11:31 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Google Opens the Ad Door to Prediction Markets and Keeps It Shut on Binary Options
- Google’s ad policy now ties market visibility directly to federal regulation, giving licensed prediction markets a distribution advantage.
- Binary options remain fully excluded from Google ads due to consumer-protection concerns.
Tuesday, 06/01/2026 | 14:54 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
70% of Prediction Market Traders Are Capital Donors, Matching CFD Losses
- The new blockchain data shows prediction market traders face the same dismal odds as retail CFD investors.
- Analysis of 1.7M Polymarket addresses reveals a familiar pattern where casual participants subsidize sophisticated players.
Tuesday, 30/12/2025 | 08:17 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Crypto.com's Plan to Trade Against Users Puts "No House" Model Under Scrutiny
- By trading on its own prediction market, Crypto.com blurs the line between a neutral venue and a profit-seeking counterparty.
- Rival platforms are also building internal trading desks, suggesting that profit-seeking market making is becoming an industry-wide model.
Friday, 26/12/2025 | 11:21 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin Defends Prediction Markets, Calling Them ‘Healthier’ Than Stocks
- Buterin says prediction markets do not introduce new categories of harm, because similar manipulation risks already operate in equity markets.
- He also argues that bounded pricing and financial accountability can make prediction markets a cleaner signal of uncertainty than social media.
Thursday, 25/12/2025 | 10:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Why Prediction Markets Could Kill Retail Trading Apps' Golden Goose? “A Churned User Is Worth Zero”
- The market has been gripped by a betting mania, covering everything from Bitcoin’s price to UFO landings in the United States
- Event-based contracts are being broadly added not only by crypto exchanges but also by CFD brokers, including Plus500.
- According to the Inversion Capital CEO, this could prove to be a long-term case of shooting themselves in the foot. And a very painful one/
Monday, 22/12/2025 | 10:52 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Oversight Sees DraftKings Launch Prediction Markets Through CME Group
- The firm offers app and web access under US federal oversight in 38 states.
- Kalshi and Polymarket $7.4B, Robinhood 2.5B contracts traded in October; sports lead amid regulatory attention.
Friday, 19/12/2025 | 16:35 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Coinbase Asks Courts to Bar States From Regulating Prediction Markets
- The crypto exchange sued Connecticut, Illinois and Michigan, saying they are unlawfully treating prediction markets as gambling.
- State regulators contend that many prediction market contracts constitute unlicensed gambling activities.
Friday, 19/12/2025 | 14:11 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Kalshi Prediction Market and TRON Integration Bridges Traditional Finance with Crypto
- The integration allows TRX and USDT deposits, expanding multichain liquidity for Kalshi prediction market users.
- Trust Wallet adds prediction markets, letting users trade YES/NO positions directly in-app.
Thursday, 18/12/2025 | 16:06 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Coinbase Enters Prediction Markets as the Amazonification of Financial Platforms Gathers Pace
- Prediction markets are emerging as a core product in the broader industry shift toward one-stop-shop financial solutions.
- Demand from younger investors is pushing platforms to move beyond single-asset models and rethink how retail trading products are bundled.
Thursday, 18/12/2025 | 09:44 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The Winklevoss Twins Just Launched Gemini Predictions in the US
- Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss bring event-based contracts to all 50 states, intensifying competition with Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The crypto exchange received its CFTC license last week and went live yesterday, offering markets on BTC prices, political outcomes, and regulatory events.
Tuesday, 16/12/2025 | 10:44 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Spares Polymarket, Gemini, Aristotle and MIAXdx From Swap Reporting Rules
- The U.S. regulator exempts four prediction market operators from some data and record-keeping requirements.
- The relief highlights the growing role of fully collateralized event contracts in U.S. derivatives markets.
Friday, 12/12/2025 | 06:37 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Robinhood, Kalshi and Crypto.com Face Prediction Markets Crackdown as State Regulators Call it Illegal Gambling
- This time, Connecticut has taken issue with the event-based contracts, becoming the tenth state to file a complaint against Kalshi.
- Crypto.com, however, appears undeterred by regulatory concerns and is launching another partnership in this area.
Thursday, 04/12/2025 | 07:14 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Prediction Markets Boom Draws CZ-Owned Trust Wallet, Joining MetaMask and Polymarket Integration
- The launch is in collaboration with event-market providers Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad.
- Prediction markets achieved record volumes in October alone, with Kalshi and Polymarket handling over $7.4 billion in trades combined.
Tuesday, 02/12/2025 | 14:44 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Will Event Contracts Be Prop Firms’ Next Target? My Funded Futures’ Hint Indicates So
- My Funded Futures’ CEO is looking for “a passionate engineer” to help him build prediction markets for the prop platform.
- Although brokers are adding event contracts to their offerings, prop firms are yet to join the trend.
Tuesday, 02/12/2025 | 08:32 GMT by
Arnab Shome
Robinhood Shares Surge 11% as Fintech Seeks Independence From Kalshi in Prediction Markets
- The platform bets big on prediction markets with MIAXdx’s acquisition.
- Event-based contracts have become a strong revenue source for the fintech, with over 9B traded since their debut.
Thursday, 27/11/2025 | 09:33 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Robinhood, Kalshi, Crypto.com Scramble as Court Rules Prediction Markets Are Gambling
- Nevada decision strips federal protections, exposing platforms to state gaming enforcement.
- Ruling treats sports-event contracts as gambling, upending regulatory strategy.
Wednesday, 26/11/2025 | 07:57 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Robinhood’s Prediction Market Outpaces Rivals With 9 Billion Contracts and 1 Million Users
- Trading activity surges on fintech's event contracts after March debut, as the company eyes futures, derivatives, and new industry partnerships.
- The planned acquisition of MIAXdx signals a move into CFTC-licensed trading, with launch targeted for 2026.
Wednesday, 26/11/2025 | 07:02 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Is Coinbase Building A Secret Prediction Markets Site With Kalshi?
- Tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong uncovers an unreleased prediction markets website as the company chases a “everything exchange” vision.
- Screenshots reveal a USDC-based platform offering markets on economics, sports, politics, and technology.
Wednesday, 19/11/2025 | 07:29 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
UFC and Zuffa Boxing First to Add Polymarket Prediction to Live Broadcasts
- Polymarket becomes first official brand partner of Zuffa Boxing, launching January.
- Prediction markets gain traction as Polymarket and Kalshi record over $7.4 billion in October trades.
Thursday, 13/11/2025 | 14:43 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Polymarket Onboards First US Users Since 2022 Shutdown
- The beta version allows limited users to place real bets as platform races to capture American prediction market.
- The company angles for advantage against Kalshi and FanDuel in growing wagering sector.
Thursday, 13/11/2025 | 07:27 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
Why Is Derivatives Giant CME Partnering With Sports Bettors? Prediction Markets Boom Holds the Answer
- Starting in December, FanDuel Predicts users will be able to trade contracts on sports outcomes, stock indexes, and commodities for as little as one cent.
- The partnership, however, arrives amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty and scrutiny over whether event contracts constitute gambling.
Thursday, 13/11/2025 | 07:16 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
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