prediction markets
CFTC Moves into Sports-Linked Prediction Markets With “First-Ever” MLB Agreement
- The regulator partners with MLB ahead of 2026 season on market integrity issues.
- The MOU allows information sharing under law to support incident response and identification of emerging risks.
Thursday, 19/03/2026 | 15:04 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Funds Are Watching Prediction Markets But Not Using Them Yet, Report Finds
- Funds are testing prediction market data in arbitrage and macro signals, not as a core trading input.
- Fragmented data and integration challenges are slowing institutional use despite growing attention.
Thursday, 19/03/2026 | 09:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Banks Begin Applying Insider Trading Rules to Prediction Markets
- Internal policy reviews mark one of the first signs that prediction markets are entering formal corporate oversight.
- Banks are beginning to treat event-based trading as a potential compliance risk rather than a fringe product.
Tuesday, 17/03/2026 | 10:51 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Polymarket Grabs Nearly 55% of Prediction Markets as Iran Bets Test CFTC Crackdown
- According to Token Terminal, Iran-linked event contracts have driven record trading volumes in the industry.
- Some traders reportedly made about $1 million betting on a U.S. strike on Iran.
- Amid the boom, reports emerged of gamblers issuing threats to sway prediction markets bets.
Monday, 16/03/2026 | 15:27 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Prediction Markets Are Turning Into a Bot Playground
- A review of Polymarket’s leaderboard suggests many of the most profitable wallets are automated trading systems.
- Arbitrage traders extracted about $40 million from Polymarket in a year by exploiting structural pricing inefficiencies.
Monday, 16/03/2026 | 14:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
MEXC Brings Zero-Fee Trading to Prediction Markets
- Event-based trading is spreading from niche platforms to major exchanges as competition shifts toward pricing and infrastructure.
- Coinbase and Crypto.com have already launched regulated prediction markets, with Kraken and Robinhood preparing similar products.
Monday, 16/03/2026 | 11:44 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Can Your Platform Launch Prediction Markets? A CFTC Compliance Checklist
- The CFTC has released new guidance for prediction markets — and it reads almost like a compliance test for platforms.
- Before launching event contracts, platforms may need to prove their markets can withstand manipulation and insider trading.
Friday, 13/03/2026 | 11:10 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
CFTC Opens Consultation on Prediction Markets, Weighs New Rules for Event Contracts
- The regulator withdrew 2024 ban proposal on political and sports-related contracts ahead of consultation.
- Division of Market Oversight reminds exchanges of obligations amid growing prediction market activity.
Thursday, 12/03/2026 | 15:36 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Hedge Funds Move into Prediction Markets via Prime Brokers
- Major prime brokers are preparing to route hedge fund orders into prediction markets listed on Kalshi.
- Data providers and trading platforms are beginning to integrate event contracts into institutional trading infrastructure.
Thursday, 12/03/2026 | 07:12 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Are Prediction Markets the Next Evolution of Retail Prop Trading?
- Prediction markets offer real contract, but they may simply be the next format of the same speculative cycle.
- As regulators tighten scrutiny of simulated prop trading, event markets are starting to look like a structural pivot for parts of the retail trading industry.
Wednesday, 11/03/2026 | 12:07 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
War, Wagers, and the Risk of Insider Bets
- The Iran war has exposed the insider trading problem of prediction markets. Is it going to be a wake-up call for regulators? Paul Golden weighs in.
- He also explores the question of whether Brits should invest in local markets and the increased capital allocations in private markets.
Wednesday, 11/03/2026 | 12:00 GMT by
Paul Golden
Polymarket Taps Palantir to Detect Cheating in Sports Prediction Markets
- Palantir’s analytics engine will monitor trading activity on Polymarket to flag potential manipulation and insider betting patterns.
- The partnership comes as prediction markets expand into sports and face growing scrutiny over market integrity.
Tuesday, 10/03/2026 | 14:44 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Cboe's New S&P 500 Prediction Contracts to Let Retail Traders Get Partial Payouts
- The firm also launches BITVX, a bitcoin volatility index using 30-day option data to guide derivative pricing and hedging.
- Robinhood, Kalshi report uptake in prediction markets; Intercontinental Exchange and CME test event-based, regulated products.
Monday, 09/03/2026 | 16:27 GMT by
Tareq Sikder
Kalshi Taps Brazil’s XP to Take Prediction Markets Global
- XP will distribute Kalshi’s event contracts through its brokerage infrastructure, while Kalshi provides the trading technology and market design.
- The partnership offers a model for exporting US-regulated fintech products through local financial platforms.
Monday, 09/03/2026 | 10:32 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Inside the Prediction Markets: When the Real World Hits the Markets
- War bets, insider-trading concerns, and lawsuits put prediction markets under real-world stress.
- As geopolitical events hit the order book, regulators, courts, and exchanges test the rules of event trading.
Friday, 06/03/2026 | 12:02 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
‘Khamenei Out’ Market Becomes Legal Headache for Kalshi
- A $50M Kalshi market on Iran’s leadership triggered a class-action probe after the exchange settled contracts under its “death carve-out” rule.
- The dispute highlights the tension between regulated prediction markets and traders expecting simple, binary payouts.
Wednesday, 04/03/2026 | 10:31 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
The Prediction Markets Frenzy Just Convinced NinjaTrader to Go B2B
- NinjaTrader Connect offers brokers and fintechs turnkey access to regulated futures and prediction markets through a single API.
- The launch comes as prediction market trading volume hit $44 billion in 2025, drawing a wave of brokers looking for ready-made infrastructure.
Tuesday, 03/03/2026 | 14:00 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
US Military Action Against Iran Exposes Split Between Polymarket and Kalshi Models
- The contrasting responses from offshore Polymarket and regulated Kalshi highlight how different market structures handle real-world geopolitical events.
- Heavy trading, suspected timing patterns and divergent settlement rules reveal tension between unregulated markets and compliance-bound exchanges.
Monday, 02/03/2026 | 10:37 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Ex-Standard Chartered and LSEG Exec Leaves Banking for the Wild West of Prediction Markets
- Kalshi brings in derivatives veteran Andy Ross to pursue Wall Street capital.
- The hire follows a Tradeweb deal and signals event-based contracts' exchange accelerating pivot away from only retail traders.
Thursday, 26/02/2026 | 08:48 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
CFTC Flags Insider Risks in Prediction Markets as Kalshi Sanctions Two Traders
- One case involved an editor who traded on prediction contracts related to a YouTube channel where he worked.
- Chair Michael Selig recently defended the industry against an “onslaught of state-led litigation.”
Wednesday, 25/02/2026 | 21:14 GMT by
Jared Kirui
Trade the Event, Protect the Position
- Prediction markets allow a trader to hedge specific, binary risks with surgical precision. If a client has a heavy long position on the euro, they can hedge the specific risk of political upheaval by taking a position in a prediction market focused on that event.
- In the near future, a brokerage that does not offer prediction markets will be seen as an incomplete platform.
Wednesday, 25/02/2026 | 05:11 GMT by
Leon Okun
Why Prediction Markets Are Now a Strategic Issue for Brokers: KPMG
- KPMG argues event contracts could shift brokers from product sellers to marketplace operators.
- Liquidity depth and regulatory clarity will determine whether prediction markets scale within brokerage platforms.
Tuesday, 24/02/2026 | 14:27 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
Leverate Opens Prediction Markets Platform to Brokers, Claims 85% Monthly Retention in Record-Volume Sector
- The tech provider joins a growing list of infrastructure suppliers targeting the fast-expanding event-based trading space.
- The company says that brokers can go live within days at no development cost, though regulatory classification remains an open question.
Tuesday, 24/02/2026 | 11:48 GMT by
Damian Chmiel
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