MOEX Data Shows Secular Trend of Mixed FX Volumes, But Up MoM

Volatility is coming back slowly to FX markets after a subdued February.

Moscow Exchange (MOEX) said that average daily volumes (ADV) of currency trading were in excess of RUB 1.37 trillion ($21.1 billion) in March, corresponding to a gain of 10.0 percent month-over-month‎ from RUB 1.26 trillion ($19.2 billion) in February 2019. However, this figure was lower, in dollar terms, by 15.0 percent year-over-year from RUB 1.41 trillion ($24.7 billion) in March 2018.

Volatility is coming back slowly to FX markets after a subdued February. The modest bull run in recent weeks created a profitable opportunity for industry players, from major venues, including the likes of Cboe, which also could have extended to an array of retail-focused FX brokerages.

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FX volatility, which is often correlated with volume metrics reported by those platforms, declined over the past two months as policymakers in different regions move together in pressing pause on plans to tighten monetary policy.

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Derivatives volumes lower

Back to MOEX’s figures, Russia’s largest institutional trading venue also reported that total FX market turnover rose 8.7 percent month-over-month to RUB 27.5 trillion ($421 billion) from RUB 25.3 trillion ($385 billion) in the month prior. However, the figure failed to secure a prolonged growth across the yearly timetable, falling by seven percent year-over-year from RUB 29.6 trillion in March 2018.

MOEX’s total FX turnover in March 2019‎ featured spot trades of RUB 6.2 trillion, up 22 percent month-on-month from RUB 5.1 trillion the previous month, while swap trades and forwards together came in at RUB 21.3 trillion, or 5.4 percent higher than the equivalent figures (RUB 20.2 trillion) for February.

MOEX’s derivatives turnovers in March, another major marketplace, also decreased from year-ago levels across different instruments. Specifically, the exchange reported a figure of RUB 6.7 trillion for the month – this was reflective of a drop of 14 percent year-over-year from RUB 7.8 trillion in March 2018.

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