Detailed analysis of the factors affecting the US dollar.
frankieleon @flickr
Slow Q2 Growth Contributes to Lower GDP Outlook for 2016
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% during Q2 2016. This bested the consensus estimate of 1.1% and is sharply higher than the 0.8% for the first quarter of the year. The upward revision to 1.4% represents the strongest growth rate for the US economy in 3 quarters.
Big drivers of GDP growth are personal consumption expenditure, durable goods spending, services and non-durable goods. On the flipside, growth was stifled by private inventories (-1.16%) with businesses losing $9.5 billion in inventories, as opposed to $12.4 billion during the second estimate. This marks the first time in 5 years that inventory levels have fallen.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) scrutinized this data, and is of the opinion that the overall growth for the US economy in 2016 will be 1.6%. This is sharply lower than the 2.6% forecast from 2015. In July 2016, the IMF was expecting growth of 2.2%, but current realities are dragging growth forecasts lower.
Why is the IMF so Bearish on Advanced Economies?
Slow Q2 growth is driving current economic projections for the US economy.
This was presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. According to the IMF, it is weak business investment and sharply lower inventories levels that are contributing to the revised forecasts. However, as we move into 2017, the IMF is upping the ante with growth projections of 2.2% on the back of fading energy prices and USD strength.
The IMF report indicated that the Fed policy should be based purely on evidence of rising prices and strengthening wages. Rate hikes should be implemented gradually, as opposed to sharp increases. Currently, the CME Group FedWatch tool indicates a 15.5% likelihood of rates rising to 0.50% – 0.75% on Wednesday, 2 November 2016. The likelihood of a 0.50% – 0.75% rate hike on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 is now standing at 55%. There is an 8.9% probability of rates rising to 0.75% – 1.00%.
What About Major Trading Partners of the US?
The June 23 Brexit referendum had the potential to devastate the UK and European economies. That a financial crisis was nipped in the bud by swift action was a credit to erstwhile Prime Minister David Cameron and BOE Governor Mark Carney. Expanded QE, a 25-basis point rate cut and the swearing-in of Prime Minister Theresa May have greatly assisted the UK economy in avoiding a financial meltdown.
Nonetheless, the IMF believes that investor confidence will be hit hard by Britain’s decision to break from the EU. UK economic growth is forecast to increase at just 1.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017. For its part, the eurozone is likely to grow by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017. These figures are sharp downward revisions from the 2015 forecasts. The IMF believes that the ECB (European Central Bank) should put in place an expanded asset purchases program with an accommodative stance. Further afield in Asia, the world’s #3 largest economy – Japan – is expected to grow at 0.5% in 2016 and just 0.6% in 2017.
US Personal consumption is strong, but business spending is weak…
Overall, it is clear that growth projections for developed countries have been revised sharply lower. This is the confluence of multiple events, including declining consumer sentiment, plunging commodity prices, weak demand, low inventory levels, deflation, weaker manufacturing data, and more. Major events like the Brexit have yet to impact on global growth, but already fears are coalescing and speculative sentiment is bearish. Prime Minister Theresa May is currently in the midst of setting a timetable for a Brexit in 2017.
This is driving GBP weakness to a 31-year low, while the FTSE 100 index races above 7,000 points. Further afield, EM economies are witnessing strong growth. Growth forecasts are at 4.2%, higher than the 4.1% that was forecast in July. 2017 growth is forecast at 4.6%. From a US perspective however, the main concern remains the lacklustre performance in Q2 2016. While personal consumption numbers remain high, it is the business side that remains problematic. This is the third consecutive quarter of investment spending declines.
How Are Average American Families Faring with the National Debt?
With the US presidential elections now just five weeks away, discussions about the National Debt are resurfacing. According to the numbers, average American families are heavily indebted, and this will only increase moving forward:
The average American family owes $168,007.50 of the National Debt. This is part and parcel of the $19 trillion in IOUs that the American government has racked up.
The National Debt does not come interest-free; American households have to pay interest on that money, and neither Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton or GOP candidate Donald J Trump have any effective mechanism for combating the problem.
According to various authorities, Hillary Clinton would add approximately $200 billion to the National Debt over 10 years while Donald Trump would add approximately $5.3 trillion to the National Debt.
Fortunately for the US, international investors are eager to continue purchasing US debt with interest rates at their current levels. This means that is relatively cheap for the US government to borrow money by selling bonds with ultralow interest rates. When the Fed hikes rates, the cost of that borrowed money will be greater.
Donald J Trump and Hillary R Clinton are of the opinion that greater infrastructure investment spending needs to take place, even at the cost of adding to the National Debt.
Overall, the current investment climate in the US is moderately bullish. We can expect a rate hike by December 14, 2016, and this will certainly benefit banking and financial stocks. However, exports will be impacted to a degree. It should be borne in mind that the anticipation of rate hikes or other monetary policy measures are typically factored into the market well ahead of time. The net effect is usually muted.
Slow Q2 Growth Contributes to Lower GDP Outlook for 2016
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% during Q2 2016. This bested the consensus estimate of 1.1% and is sharply higher than the 0.8% for the first quarter of the year. The upward revision to 1.4% represents the strongest growth rate for the US economy in 3 quarters.
Big drivers of GDP growth are personal consumption expenditure, durable goods spending, services and non-durable goods. On the flipside, growth was stifled by private inventories (-1.16%) with businesses losing $9.5 billion in inventories, as opposed to $12.4 billion during the second estimate. This marks the first time in 5 years that inventory levels have fallen.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) scrutinized this data, and is of the opinion that the overall growth for the US economy in 2016 will be 1.6%. This is sharply lower than the 2.6% forecast from 2015. In July 2016, the IMF was expecting growth of 2.2%, but current realities are dragging growth forecasts lower.
Why is the IMF so Bearish on Advanced Economies?
Slow Q2 growth is driving current economic projections for the US economy.
This was presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. According to the IMF, it is weak business investment and sharply lower inventories levels that are contributing to the revised forecasts. However, as we move into 2017, the IMF is upping the ante with growth projections of 2.2% on the back of fading energy prices and USD strength.
The IMF report indicated that the Fed policy should be based purely on evidence of rising prices and strengthening wages. Rate hikes should be implemented gradually, as opposed to sharp increases. Currently, the CME Group FedWatch tool indicates a 15.5% likelihood of rates rising to 0.50% – 0.75% on Wednesday, 2 November 2016. The likelihood of a 0.50% – 0.75% rate hike on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 is now standing at 55%. There is an 8.9% probability of rates rising to 0.75% – 1.00%.
What About Major Trading Partners of the US?
The June 23 Brexit referendum had the potential to devastate the UK and European economies. That a financial crisis was nipped in the bud by swift action was a credit to erstwhile Prime Minister David Cameron and BOE Governor Mark Carney. Expanded QE, a 25-basis point rate cut and the swearing-in of Prime Minister Theresa May have greatly assisted the UK economy in avoiding a financial meltdown.
Nonetheless, the IMF believes that investor confidence will be hit hard by Britain’s decision to break from the EU. UK economic growth is forecast to increase at just 1.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017. For its part, the eurozone is likely to grow by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017. These figures are sharp downward revisions from the 2015 forecasts. The IMF believes that the ECB (European Central Bank) should put in place an expanded asset purchases program with an accommodative stance. Further afield in Asia, the world’s #3 largest economy – Japan – is expected to grow at 0.5% in 2016 and just 0.6% in 2017.
US Personal consumption is strong, but business spending is weak…
Overall, it is clear that growth projections for developed countries have been revised sharply lower. This is the confluence of multiple events, including declining consumer sentiment, plunging commodity prices, weak demand, low inventory levels, deflation, weaker manufacturing data, and more. Major events like the Brexit have yet to impact on global growth, but already fears are coalescing and speculative sentiment is bearish. Prime Minister Theresa May is currently in the midst of setting a timetable for a Brexit in 2017.
This is driving GBP weakness to a 31-year low, while the FTSE 100 index races above 7,000 points. Further afield, EM economies are witnessing strong growth. Growth forecasts are at 4.2%, higher than the 4.1% that was forecast in July. 2017 growth is forecast at 4.6%. From a US perspective however, the main concern remains the lacklustre performance in Q2 2016. While personal consumption numbers remain high, it is the business side that remains problematic. This is the third consecutive quarter of investment spending declines.
How Are Average American Families Faring with the National Debt?
With the US presidential elections now just five weeks away, discussions about the National Debt are resurfacing. According to the numbers, average American families are heavily indebted, and this will only increase moving forward:
The average American family owes $168,007.50 of the National Debt. This is part and parcel of the $19 trillion in IOUs that the American government has racked up.
The National Debt does not come interest-free; American households have to pay interest on that money, and neither Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton or GOP candidate Donald J Trump have any effective mechanism for combating the problem.
According to various authorities, Hillary Clinton would add approximately $200 billion to the National Debt over 10 years while Donald Trump would add approximately $5.3 trillion to the National Debt.
Fortunately for the US, international investors are eager to continue purchasing US debt with interest rates at their current levels. This means that is relatively cheap for the US government to borrow money by selling bonds with ultralow interest rates. When the Fed hikes rates, the cost of that borrowed money will be greater.
Donald J Trump and Hillary R Clinton are of the opinion that greater infrastructure investment spending needs to take place, even at the cost of adding to the National Debt.
Overall, the current investment climate in the US is moderately bullish. We can expect a rate hike by December 14, 2016, and this will certainly benefit banking and financial stocks. However, exports will be impacted to a degree. It should be borne in mind that the anticipation of rate hikes or other monetary policy measures are typically factored into the market well ahead of time. The net effect is usually muted.
Idan is the VP trading for anyoption.com. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience trading and has a vast knowledge of the financial markets. An expert in the binary options hedging field - Idan provides insights, guidance and coordination in business planning, risk management and technology strategies. He holds a BA in Economics Management and is now busy finishing his MBA in Finance. Idan is the VP trading for anyoption.com. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience and a vast knowledge of the financial markets. An expert in the binary options hedging field - Idan provides insights, guidance and coordination in business planning, risk management and technology strategies. He holds a BA in Economics Management and is now busy finishing his MBA in Finance.
Exclusive: The5ers Founders Enter Brokerage Business with CySEC-Licensed “TSG.”
Marketing in 2026 Audiences, Costs, and Smarter AI
Marketing in 2026 Audiences, Costs, and Smarter AI
As brokers eye B2B business and compete with fintechs and crypto exchanges alike, marketers need to act wisely with often limited budgets. AI can offer scalable solutions, but only if used properly.
Join seasoned marketing executives and specialists as they discuss the main challenges they identify in financial services in 2026 and how they address them.
Attendees of this session will walk away with:
- A nuts-and-bolts account of acquisition costs across platforms and geos
- Analysis of today’s multi-layered audience segments and differences in behaviour
- First-hand account of how global brokers balance consistency and local flavour
- Notes from the field about intelligently using AI and automation in marketing
Speakers:
-Yam Yehoshua, Editor-In-Chief at Finance Magnates
-Federico Paderni, Managing Director for Growth Markets in Europe at X
-Jo Benton, Chief Marketing Officer, Consulting | Fractional CMO
-Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive
-Roberto Napolitano, CMO at Innovate Finance
-Tony Cross, Director at Monk Communications
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #FintechMarketing #AI #DigitalStrategy #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As brokers eye B2B business and compete with fintechs and crypto exchanges alike, marketers need to act wisely with often limited budgets. AI can offer scalable solutions, but only if used properly.
Join seasoned marketing executives and specialists as they discuss the main challenges they identify in financial services in 2026 and how they address them.
Attendees of this session will walk away with:
- A nuts-and-bolts account of acquisition costs across platforms and geos
- Analysis of today’s multi-layered audience segments and differences in behaviour
- First-hand account of how global brokers balance consistency and local flavour
- Notes from the field about intelligently using AI and automation in marketing
Speakers:
-Yam Yehoshua, Editor-In-Chief at Finance Magnates
-Federico Paderni, Managing Director for Growth Markets in Europe at X
-Jo Benton, Chief Marketing Officer, Consulting | Fractional CMO
-Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive
-Roberto Napolitano, CMO at Innovate Finance
-Tony Cross, Director at Monk Communications
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #FintechMarketing #AI #DigitalStrategy #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Much like their traders in the market, brokers must diversify to manage risk and stay resilient. But that can get costly, clunky, and lengthy.
This candid panel brings together builders across the trading infrastructure space to uncover the shifting dynamics behind tools, interfaces, and full-stack ambitions.
Attendees will hear:
-Why platform dependency has become one of the most overlooked risks in the trading business?
-Buy vs. build: What do hybrid models look like, and why are industry graveyards filled with failed ‘killer apps’?
-How AI is already changing execution, risk, and reporting—and what’s next?
-Which features, assets, and tools gain the most traction, and where brokers should look for tech-driven retention?
Speakers:
-Stephen Miles, Chief Revenue Officer at FYNXT
-John Morris, Co-Founder at FXBlue
-Matthew Smith, Group Chair & CEO at EC Markets
-Tom Higgins, Founder & CEO at Gold-i
-Gil Ben Hur, Founder at 5% Group
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #Trading #Fintech #FintechInnovation #TradingTechnology #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Much like their traders in the market, brokers must diversify to manage risk and stay resilient. But that can get costly, clunky, and lengthy.
This candid panel brings together builders across the trading infrastructure space to uncover the shifting dynamics behind tools, interfaces, and full-stack ambitions.
Attendees will hear:
-Why platform dependency has become one of the most overlooked risks in the trading business?
-Buy vs. build: What do hybrid models look like, and why are industry graveyards filled with failed ‘killer apps’?
-How AI is already changing execution, risk, and reporting—and what’s next?
-Which features, assets, and tools gain the most traction, and where brokers should look for tech-driven retention?
Speakers:
-Stephen Miles, Chief Revenue Officer at FYNXT
-John Morris, Co-Founder at FXBlue
-Matthew Smith, Group Chair & CEO at EC Markets
-Tom Higgins, Founder & CEO at Gold-i
-Gil Ben Hur, Founder at 5% Group
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #Trading #Fintech #FintechInnovation #TradingTechnology #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Educators, IBs, And Other Regional Growth Drivers
Educators, IBs, And Other Regional Growth Drivers
When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers.
This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025.
Key Themes:
- Building trader communities through education and local expertise
- Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies
- Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition
- What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets
-Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill
-Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers.
This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025.
Key Themes:
- Building trader communities through education and local expertise
- Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies
- Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition
- What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets
-Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill
-Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
The Leap to Everything App: Are Brokers There Yet?
The Leap to Everything App: Are Brokers There Yet?
As the arms race to bundle investing, personal finance, and wallets under super apps grows fiercer, brokers are caught between a rock and a hard place.
This session explores unexpected ways for industry players to collaborate as consumer habits evolve, competitors eye the traffic, and regulation becomes more nuanced.
Speakers:
-Laura McCracken,CEO | Advisory Board Member at Blackheath Advisors | The Payments Association
-Slobodan Manojlović,Vice President | Lead Software Engineer at JP Morgan Chase & Co.
-Jordan Sinclair, President at Robinhood UK
-Simon Pelletier, Head of Product at Yuh
Gerald Perez, CEO at Interactive Brokers UK
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As the arms race to bundle investing, personal finance, and wallets under super apps grows fiercer, brokers are caught between a rock and a hard place.
This session explores unexpected ways for industry players to collaborate as consumer habits evolve, competitors eye the traffic, and regulation becomes more nuanced.
Speakers:
-Laura McCracken,CEO | Advisory Board Member at Blackheath Advisors | The Payments Association
-Slobodan Manojlović,Vice President | Lead Software Engineer at JP Morgan Chase & Co.
-Jordan Sinclair, President at Robinhood UK
-Simon Pelletier, Head of Product at Yuh
Gerald Perez, CEO at Interactive Brokers UK
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Mind The Gap: Can Retail Investors Save the UK Stock Market?
Mind The Gap: Can Retail Investors Save the UK Stock Market?
As the dire state of listing and investment in the UK goes from a financial services problem to a national challenge, the retail investing industry is taken to task.
Join a host of executives and experts for a candid conversation about the future of millions of Brits, as seen from a financial services standpoint:
-Are they happy with the Leeds Reform, in principle and in practice?
-Is it the government’s job to affect the ‘saver’ mentality? Is it doing well?
-What can brokers and fintechs do to spur UK investment?
-How can the FCA balance greater flexibility with consumer protection?
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Nicola Higgs, Partner at Latham & Watkins
-Dan Lane, Investment Content Lead at Robinhood UK
-Jack Crone, PR & Public Affairs Lead at IG
-David Belle, Founder at Fink Money
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #RetailInvesting #UKFinance
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As the dire state of listing and investment in the UK goes from a financial services problem to a national challenge, the retail investing industry is taken to task.
Join a host of executives and experts for a candid conversation about the future of millions of Brits, as seen from a financial services standpoint:
-Are they happy with the Leeds Reform, in principle and in practice?
-Is it the government’s job to affect the ‘saver’ mentality? Is it doing well?
-What can brokers and fintechs do to spur UK investment?
-How can the FCA balance greater flexibility with consumer protection?
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Nicola Higgs, Partner at Latham & Watkins
-Dan Lane, Investment Content Lead at Robinhood UK
-Jack Crone, PR & Public Affairs Lead at IG
-David Belle, Founder at Fink Money
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #RetailInvesting #UKFinance
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
