Detailed analysis of the factors affecting the US dollar.
frankieleon @flickr
Slow Q2 Growth Contributes to Lower GDP Outlook for 2016
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% during Q2 2016. This bested the consensus estimate of 1.1% and is sharply higher than the 0.8% for the first quarter of the year. The upward revision to 1.4% represents the strongest growth rate for the US economy in 3 quarters.
Big drivers of GDP growth are personal consumption expenditure, durable goods spending, services and non-durable goods. On the flipside, growth was stifled by private inventories (-1.16%) with businesses losing $9.5 billion in inventories, as opposed to $12.4 billion during the second estimate. This marks the first time in 5 years that inventory levels have fallen.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) scrutinized this data, and is of the opinion that the overall growth for the US economy in 2016 will be 1.6%. This is sharply lower than the 2.6% forecast from 2015. In July 2016, the IMF was expecting growth of 2.2%, but current realities are dragging growth forecasts lower.
Why is the IMF so Bearish on Advanced Economies?
Slow Q2 growth is driving current economic projections for the US economy.
This was presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. According to the IMF, it is weak business investment and sharply lower inventories levels that are contributing to the revised forecasts. However, as we move into 2017, the IMF is upping the ante with growth projections of 2.2% on the back of fading energy prices and USD strength.
The IMF report indicated that the Fed policy should be based purely on evidence of rising prices and strengthening wages. Rate hikes should be implemented gradually, as opposed to sharp increases. Currently, the CME Group FedWatch tool indicates a 15.5% likelihood of rates rising to 0.50% – 0.75% on Wednesday, 2 November 2016. The likelihood of a 0.50% – 0.75% rate hike on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 is now standing at 55%. There is an 8.9% probability of rates rising to 0.75% – 1.00%.
What About Major Trading Partners of the US?
The June 23 Brexit referendum had the potential to devastate the UK and European economies. That a financial crisis was nipped in the bud by swift action was a credit to erstwhile Prime Minister David Cameron and BOE Governor Mark Carney. Expanded QE, a 25-basis point rate cut and the swearing-in of Prime Minister Theresa May have greatly assisted the UK economy in avoiding a financial meltdown.
Nonetheless, the IMF believes that investor confidence will be hit hard by Britain’s decision to break from the EU. UK economic growth is forecast to increase at just 1.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017. For its part, the eurozone is likely to grow by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017. These figures are sharp downward revisions from the 2015 forecasts. The IMF believes that the ECB (European Central Bank) should put in place an expanded asset purchases program with an accommodative stance. Further afield in Asia, the world’s #3 largest economy – Japan – is expected to grow at 0.5% in 2016 and just 0.6% in 2017.
US Personal consumption is strong, but business spending is weak…
Overall, it is clear that growth projections for developed countries have been revised sharply lower. This is the confluence of multiple events, including declining consumer sentiment, plunging commodity prices, weak demand, low inventory levels, deflation, weaker manufacturing data, and more. Major events like the Brexit have yet to impact on global growth, but already fears are coalescing and speculative sentiment is bearish. Prime Minister Theresa May is currently in the midst of setting a timetable for a Brexit in 2017.
This is driving GBP weakness to a 31-year low, while the FTSE 100 index races above 7,000 points. Further afield, EM economies are witnessing strong growth. Growth forecasts are at 4.2%, higher than the 4.1% that was forecast in July. 2017 growth is forecast at 4.6%. From a US perspective however, the main concern remains the lacklustre performance in Q2 2016. While personal consumption numbers remain high, it is the business side that remains problematic. This is the third consecutive quarter of investment spending declines.
How Are Average American Families Faring with the National Debt?
With the US presidential elections now just five weeks away, discussions about the National Debt are resurfacing. According to the numbers, average American families are heavily indebted, and this will only increase moving forward:
The average American family owes $168,007.50 of the National Debt. This is part and parcel of the $19 trillion in IOUs that the American government has racked up.
The National Debt does not come interest-free; American households have to pay interest on that money, and neither Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton or GOP candidate Donald J Trump have any effective mechanism for combating the problem.
According to various authorities, Hillary Clinton would add approximately $200 billion to the National Debt over 10 years while Donald Trump would add approximately $5.3 trillion to the National Debt.
Fortunately for the US, international investors are eager to continue purchasing US debt with interest rates at their current levels. This means that is relatively cheap for the US government to borrow money by selling bonds with ultralow interest rates. When the Fed hikes rates, the cost of that borrowed money will be greater.
Donald J Trump and Hillary R Clinton are of the opinion that greater infrastructure investment spending needs to take place, even at the cost of adding to the National Debt.
Overall, the current investment climate in the US is moderately bullish. We can expect a rate hike by December 14, 2016, and this will certainly benefit banking and financial stocks. However, exports will be impacted to a degree. It should be borne in mind that the anticipation of rate hikes or other monetary policy measures are typically factored into the market well ahead of time. The net effect is usually muted.
Slow Q2 Growth Contributes to Lower GDP Outlook for 2016
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% during Q2 2016. This bested the consensus estimate of 1.1% and is sharply higher than the 0.8% for the first quarter of the year. The upward revision to 1.4% represents the strongest growth rate for the US economy in 3 quarters.
Big drivers of GDP growth are personal consumption expenditure, durable goods spending, services and non-durable goods. On the flipside, growth was stifled by private inventories (-1.16%) with businesses losing $9.5 billion in inventories, as opposed to $12.4 billion during the second estimate. This marks the first time in 5 years that inventory levels have fallen.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) scrutinized this data, and is of the opinion that the overall growth for the US economy in 2016 will be 1.6%. This is sharply lower than the 2.6% forecast from 2015. In July 2016, the IMF was expecting growth of 2.2%, but current realities are dragging growth forecasts lower.
Why is the IMF so Bearish on Advanced Economies?
Slow Q2 growth is driving current economic projections for the US economy.
This was presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. According to the IMF, it is weak business investment and sharply lower inventories levels that are contributing to the revised forecasts. However, as we move into 2017, the IMF is upping the ante with growth projections of 2.2% on the back of fading energy prices and USD strength.
The IMF report indicated that the Fed policy should be based purely on evidence of rising prices and strengthening wages. Rate hikes should be implemented gradually, as opposed to sharp increases. Currently, the CME Group FedWatch tool indicates a 15.5% likelihood of rates rising to 0.50% – 0.75% on Wednesday, 2 November 2016. The likelihood of a 0.50% – 0.75% rate hike on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 is now standing at 55%. There is an 8.9% probability of rates rising to 0.75% – 1.00%.
What About Major Trading Partners of the US?
The June 23 Brexit referendum had the potential to devastate the UK and European economies. That a financial crisis was nipped in the bud by swift action was a credit to erstwhile Prime Minister David Cameron and BOE Governor Mark Carney. Expanded QE, a 25-basis point rate cut and the swearing-in of Prime Minister Theresa May have greatly assisted the UK economy in avoiding a financial meltdown.
Nonetheless, the IMF believes that investor confidence will be hit hard by Britain’s decision to break from the EU. UK economic growth is forecast to increase at just 1.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017. For its part, the eurozone is likely to grow by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017. These figures are sharp downward revisions from the 2015 forecasts. The IMF believes that the ECB (European Central Bank) should put in place an expanded asset purchases program with an accommodative stance. Further afield in Asia, the world’s #3 largest economy – Japan – is expected to grow at 0.5% in 2016 and just 0.6% in 2017.
US Personal consumption is strong, but business spending is weak…
Overall, it is clear that growth projections for developed countries have been revised sharply lower. This is the confluence of multiple events, including declining consumer sentiment, plunging commodity prices, weak demand, low inventory levels, deflation, weaker manufacturing data, and more. Major events like the Brexit have yet to impact on global growth, but already fears are coalescing and speculative sentiment is bearish. Prime Minister Theresa May is currently in the midst of setting a timetable for a Brexit in 2017.
This is driving GBP weakness to a 31-year low, while the FTSE 100 index races above 7,000 points. Further afield, EM economies are witnessing strong growth. Growth forecasts are at 4.2%, higher than the 4.1% that was forecast in July. 2017 growth is forecast at 4.6%. From a US perspective however, the main concern remains the lacklustre performance in Q2 2016. While personal consumption numbers remain high, it is the business side that remains problematic. This is the third consecutive quarter of investment spending declines.
How Are Average American Families Faring with the National Debt?
With the US presidential elections now just five weeks away, discussions about the National Debt are resurfacing. According to the numbers, average American families are heavily indebted, and this will only increase moving forward:
The average American family owes $168,007.50 of the National Debt. This is part and parcel of the $19 trillion in IOUs that the American government has racked up.
The National Debt does not come interest-free; American households have to pay interest on that money, and neither Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton or GOP candidate Donald J Trump have any effective mechanism for combating the problem.
According to various authorities, Hillary Clinton would add approximately $200 billion to the National Debt over 10 years while Donald Trump would add approximately $5.3 trillion to the National Debt.
Fortunately for the US, international investors are eager to continue purchasing US debt with interest rates at their current levels. This means that is relatively cheap for the US government to borrow money by selling bonds with ultralow interest rates. When the Fed hikes rates, the cost of that borrowed money will be greater.
Donald J Trump and Hillary R Clinton are of the opinion that greater infrastructure investment spending needs to take place, even at the cost of adding to the National Debt.
Overall, the current investment climate in the US is moderately bullish. We can expect a rate hike by December 14, 2016, and this will certainly benefit banking and financial stocks. However, exports will be impacted to a degree. It should be borne in mind that the anticipation of rate hikes or other monetary policy measures are typically factored into the market well ahead of time. The net effect is usually muted.
Idan is the VP trading for anyoption.com. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience trading and has a vast knowledge of the financial markets. An expert in the binary options hedging field - Idan provides insights, guidance and coordination in business planning, risk management and technology strategies. He holds a BA in Economics Management and is now busy finishing his MBA in Finance. Idan is the VP trading for anyoption.com. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience and a vast knowledge of the financial markets. An expert in the binary options hedging field - Idan provides insights, guidance and coordination in business planning, risk management and technology strategies. He holds a BA in Economics Management and is now busy finishing his MBA in Finance.
Hannah Hill on Innovation, Branding & Award-Winning Technology | Executive Interview | AXI
Hannah Hill on Innovation, Branding & Award-Winning Technology | Executive Interview | AXI
Recorded live at FMLS:25, this executive interview features Hannah Hill, Head of Brand and Sponsorship at AXI, in conversation with Finance Magnates, following AXI’s win for Most Innovative Broker of the Year 2025.
In this wide-ranging discussion, Hannah shares insights on:
🔹What winning the Finance Magnates award means for AXI’s credibility and innovation
🔹How the launch of AXI Select, the capital allocation program, is redefining industry standards
🔹The development and rollout of the AXI trading app across multiple markets
🔹Driving brand evolution alongside technological advancements
🔹Encouraging and recognizing teams behind the scenes
🔹The role of marketing, content, and social media in building product awareness
Hannah explains why standout products, strategic branding, and a focus on innovation are key to growing visibility and staying ahead in a competitive brokerage landscape.
🏆 Award Highlight: Most Innovative Broker of the Year 2025
👉 Subscribe to Finance Magnates for more executive interviews, industry insights, and exclusive coverage from the world’s leading financial events.
#FMLS25 #FinanceMagnates #MostInnovativeBroker #TradingTechnology #FinTech #Brokerage #ExecutiveInterview #AXI
Recorded live at FMLS:25, this executive interview features Hannah Hill, Head of Brand and Sponsorship at AXI, in conversation with Finance Magnates, following AXI’s win for Most Innovative Broker of the Year 2025.
In this wide-ranging discussion, Hannah shares insights on:
🔹What winning the Finance Magnates award means for AXI’s credibility and innovation
🔹How the launch of AXI Select, the capital allocation program, is redefining industry standards
🔹The development and rollout of the AXI trading app across multiple markets
🔹Driving brand evolution alongside technological advancements
🔹Encouraging and recognizing teams behind the scenes
🔹The role of marketing, content, and social media in building product awareness
Hannah explains why standout products, strategic branding, and a focus on innovation are key to growing visibility and staying ahead in a competitive brokerage landscape.
🏆 Award Highlight: Most Innovative Broker of the Year 2025
👉 Subscribe to Finance Magnates for more executive interviews, industry insights, and exclusive coverage from the world’s leading financial events.
#FMLS25 #FinanceMagnates #MostInnovativeBroker #TradingTechnology #FinTech #Brokerage #ExecutiveInterview #AXI
Executive Interview | Dor Eligula | Co-Founder & Chief Business Officer, BridgeWise | FMLS:25
Executive Interview | Dor Eligula | Co-Founder & Chief Business Officer, BridgeWise | FMLS:25
In this session, Jonathan Fine form Ultimate Group speaks with Dor Eligula from Bridgewise, a fast-growing AI-powered research and analytics firm supporting brokers and exchanges worldwide.
We start with Dor’s reaction to the Summit and then move to broker growth and the quick wins brokers often overlook. Dor shares where he sees “blue ocean” growth across Asian markets and how local client behaviour shapes demand.
We also discuss the rollout of AI across investment research. Dor gives real examples of how automation and human judgment meet at Bridgewise — including moments when analysts corrected AI output, and times when AI prevented an error.
We close with a practical question: how retail investors can actually use AI without falling into common traps.
In this session, Jonathan Fine form Ultimate Group speaks with Dor Eligula from Bridgewise, a fast-growing AI-powered research and analytics firm supporting brokers and exchanges worldwide.
We start with Dor’s reaction to the Summit and then move to broker growth and the quick wins brokers often overlook. Dor shares where he sees “blue ocean” growth across Asian markets and how local client behaviour shapes demand.
We also discuss the rollout of AI across investment research. Dor gives real examples of how automation and human judgment meet at Bridgewise — including moments when analysts corrected AI output, and times when AI prevented an error.
We close with a practical question: how retail investors can actually use AI without falling into common traps.
Brendan Callan joined us fresh off the Summit’s most anticipated debate: “Is Prop Trading Good for the Industry?” Brendan argued against the motion — and the audience voted him the winner.
In this interview, Brendan explains the reasoning behind his position. He walks through the message he believes many firms avoid: that the current prop trading model is too dependent on fees, too loose on risk, and too confusing for retail audiences.
We discuss why he thinks the model grew fast, why it may run into walls, and what he believes is needed for a cleaner, more responsible version of prop trading.
This is Brendan at his frankest — sharp, grounded, and very clear about what changes are overdue.
Brendan Callan joined us fresh off the Summit’s most anticipated debate: “Is Prop Trading Good for the Industry?” Brendan argued against the motion — and the audience voted him the winner.
In this interview, Brendan explains the reasoning behind his position. He walks through the message he believes many firms avoid: that the current prop trading model is too dependent on fees, too loose on risk, and too confusing for retail audiences.
We discuss why he thinks the model grew fast, why it may run into walls, and what he believes is needed for a cleaner, more responsible version of prop trading.
This is Brendan at his frankest — sharp, grounded, and very clear about what changes are overdue.
Elina Pedersen on Growth, Stability & Ultra-Low Latency | Executive Interview | Your Bourse
Elina Pedersen on Growth, Stability & Ultra-Low Latency | Executive Interview | Your Bourse
Recorded live at FMLS:25 London, this executive interview features Elina Pedersen, in conversation with Finance Magnates, following her company’s win for Best Connectivity 2025.
🔹In this wide-ranging discussion, Elina shares insights on:
🔹What winning a Finance Magnates award means for credibility and reputation
🔹How broker demand for stability and reliability is driving rapid growth
🔹The launch of a new trade server enabling flexible front-end integrations
🔹Why ultra-low latency must be proven with data, not buzzwords
🔹Common mistakes brokers make when scaling globally
🔹Educating the industry through a newly launched Dealers Academy
🔹Where AI fits into trading infrastructure and where it doesn’t
Elina explains why resilient back-end infrastructure, deep client partnerships, and disciplined focus are critical for brokers looking to scale sustainably in today’s competitive market.
🏆 Award Highlight: Best Connectivity 2025
👉 Subscribe to Finance Magnates for more executive interviews, industry insights, and exclusive coverage from the world’s leading financial events.
#FMLS25 #FinanceMagnates #BestConnectivity #TradingTechnology #UltraLowLatency #FinTech #Brokerage #ExecutiveInterview
Recorded live at FMLS:25 London, this executive interview features Elina Pedersen, in conversation with Finance Magnates, following her company’s win for Best Connectivity 2025.
🔹In this wide-ranging discussion, Elina shares insights on:
🔹What winning a Finance Magnates award means for credibility and reputation
🔹How broker demand for stability and reliability is driving rapid growth
🔹The launch of a new trade server enabling flexible front-end integrations
🔹Why ultra-low latency must be proven with data, not buzzwords
🔹Common mistakes brokers make when scaling globally
🔹Educating the industry through a newly launched Dealers Academy
🔹Where AI fits into trading infrastructure and where it doesn’t
Elina explains why resilient back-end infrastructure, deep client partnerships, and disciplined focus are critical for brokers looking to scale sustainably in today’s competitive market.
🏆 Award Highlight: Best Connectivity 2025
👉 Subscribe to Finance Magnates for more executive interviews, industry insights, and exclusive coverage from the world’s leading financial events.
#FMLS25 #FinanceMagnates #BestConnectivity #TradingTechnology #UltraLowLatency #FinTech #Brokerage #ExecutiveInterview
In this video, we take an in-depth look at @BlueberryMarketsForex , a forex and CFD broker operating since 2016, offering access to multiple trading platforms, over 1,000 instruments, and flexible account types for different trading styles.
We break down Blueberry’s regulatory structure, including its Australian Financial Services License (AFSL), as well as its authorisation and registrations in other jurisdictions. The review also covers supported platforms such as MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader, TradingView, Blueberry.X, and web-based trading.
You’ll learn about available instruments across forex, commodities, indices, share CFDs, and crypto CFDs, along with leverage options, minimum and maximum trade sizes, and how Blueberry structures its Standard and Raw accounts.
We also explain spreads, commissions, swap rates, swap-free account availability, funding and withdrawal methods, processing times, and what traders can expect from customer support and additional services.
Watch the full review to see whether Blueberry’s trading setup aligns with your experience level, strategy, and risk tolerance.
📣 Stay up to date with the latest in finance and trading. Follow Finance Magnates for industry news, insights, and global event coverage.
Connect with us:
🔗 LinkedIn: /financemagnates
👍 Facebook: /financemagnates
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates
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🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/tag/financemagnates
▶️ YouTube: /@financemagnates_official
#Blueberry #BlueberryMarkets #BrokerReview #ForexBroker #CFDTrading #OnlineTrading #FinanceMagnates #TradingPlatforms #MarketInsights
In this video, we take an in-depth look at @BlueberryMarketsForex , a forex and CFD broker operating since 2016, offering access to multiple trading platforms, over 1,000 instruments, and flexible account types for different trading styles.
We break down Blueberry’s regulatory structure, including its Australian Financial Services License (AFSL), as well as its authorisation and registrations in other jurisdictions. The review also covers supported platforms such as MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader, TradingView, Blueberry.X, and web-based trading.
You’ll learn about available instruments across forex, commodities, indices, share CFDs, and crypto CFDs, along with leverage options, minimum and maximum trade sizes, and how Blueberry structures its Standard and Raw accounts.
We also explain spreads, commissions, swap rates, swap-free account availability, funding and withdrawal methods, processing times, and what traders can expect from customer support and additional services.
Watch the full review to see whether Blueberry’s trading setup aligns with your experience level, strategy, and risk tolerance.
📣 Stay up to date with the latest in finance and trading. Follow Finance Magnates for industry news, insights, and global event coverage.
Connect with us:
🔗 LinkedIn: /financemagnates
👍 Facebook: /financemagnates
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates
🐦 X: https://x.com/financemagnates
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/tag/financemagnates
▶️ YouTube: /@financemagnates_official
#Blueberry #BlueberryMarkets #BrokerReview #ForexBroker #CFDTrading #OnlineTrading #FinanceMagnates #TradingPlatforms #MarketInsights
