Investors continue to react to Yellen’s upbeat assessment of the economy and the better-than-expected U.S. retail data.
Last week, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen stood her ground as she testified before the Senate Banking Committee when she delivered her upbeat assessment about the economy and reiterated the Fed’s official stance that there is still the possibility of additional interest rate hikes in 2016.
Her comments, however, highlighted the differences in what the Fed believes and what the financial market investors think. The Fed expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow slow, leading to gradual interest rate hikes in 2016. Investors believe the global economic weakness will have an effect on the domestic economy and that the Fed’s next rate hike won’t take place until early 2017.
Yellen even acknowledged that there was still the possibility of a rate hike in March. “We will meet in March, and our committee will carefully deliberate about what impact these developments have had,” Ms. Yellen told Congress, referring to the market turmoil and next month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “Today I think it’s premature to render a judgment.”
Earlier in the month, the government reported that the economy added 151,000 new jobs in January. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.9 percent. Most of all, Average Hourly Earnings came in at 0.5%, well above the 0.3% forecast. This is an important inflation indicator for the Fed.
The Fed can’t do much about consumer inflation because its actions do not have a direct effect on crude oil prices, which while at a 12-year low, are dragging down the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Yellen acknowledged that “a lot has happened” since December when the Fed predicted it would spend 2016 gradually raising rates. She also added that risk-adverse investors could disrupt slow-and-steady economic growth.
Although stocks were falling sharply and investor money was moving rapidly into the safety of the Treasurys and gold market while Yellen was speaking, stocks have recovered nicely since the end of her testimony on February 11. March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures reached a low that day at 1802.50 and finished the week at 1858.25.
March T-Bonds, which spiked higher as investors climbed the wall of worry last week, reached a high at 170’26 before breaking sharply into the end of the week. The benchmark March 10-Year Notes reached a high at 133’01.5 before weakening into Friday’s close and April Gold, which spiked up to its highest level since May 2015 at $1263.90, also indicated the presence of sellers at the end of the week.
The price action into the end of the week indicates that a shift in investor sentiment may be taking place or that investors overdid the selling in the equity markets and the buying in the Treasurys and gold. This suggests that the markets may be due for a major adjustment while investors reassess the state of the economy given the testimony by Yellen and the strength of the U.S. retail sales report.
The price adjustment could take place this week, driven mostly by the momentum into Friday’s close. On Wednesday, the FOMC Meeting minutes will be released. This should give greater insight into the thinking of the committee members.
If the minutes show that the FOMC members still believe the economy is strong enough to warrant additional rate hikes in 2016 then we could see weakness in the Treasurys and gold. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, will likely be underpinned by the news. The jury is still out on the direction of the equity markets because several factors like the turmoil in international bank stocks are still exerting their influence on stocks.
We could see more volatility if the FOMC minutes indicate dissension between the member over the timing and pace of the additional rate hikes. This will likely cause uncertainty because it will likely lead to a lack of confidence in the Fed’s ability to judge the state of the economy.
In summary, look for early strength in the U.S. stock markets this week and general weakness in the Treasurys and gold as investors continue to react to Yellen’s upbeat assessment of the economy and the better-than-expected U.S. retail data.
Watch for volatility to return with the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday, February 17. The markets are likely to continue their moves from earlier in the week if the FOMC members are on the same page for additional rate hikes. However, we could see excessive volatility if the FOMC members disagreed on the timing and pace of the additional rate increases.
Last week, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen stood her ground as she testified before the Senate Banking Committee when she delivered her upbeat assessment about the economy and reiterated the Fed’s official stance that there is still the possibility of additional interest rate hikes in 2016.
Her comments, however, highlighted the differences in what the Fed believes and what the financial market investors think. The Fed expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow slow, leading to gradual interest rate hikes in 2016. Investors believe the global economic weakness will have an effect on the domestic economy and that the Fed’s next rate hike won’t take place until early 2017.
Yellen even acknowledged that there was still the possibility of a rate hike in March. “We will meet in March, and our committee will carefully deliberate about what impact these developments have had,” Ms. Yellen told Congress, referring to the market turmoil and next month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “Today I think it’s premature to render a judgment.”
Earlier in the month, the government reported that the economy added 151,000 new jobs in January. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.9 percent. Most of all, Average Hourly Earnings came in at 0.5%, well above the 0.3% forecast. This is an important inflation indicator for the Fed.
The Fed can’t do much about consumer inflation because its actions do not have a direct effect on crude oil prices, which while at a 12-year low, are dragging down the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Yellen acknowledged that “a lot has happened” since December when the Fed predicted it would spend 2016 gradually raising rates. She also added that risk-adverse investors could disrupt slow-and-steady economic growth.
Although stocks were falling sharply and investor money was moving rapidly into the safety of the Treasurys and gold market while Yellen was speaking, stocks have recovered nicely since the end of her testimony on February 11. March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures reached a low that day at 1802.50 and finished the week at 1858.25.
March T-Bonds, which spiked higher as investors climbed the wall of worry last week, reached a high at 170’26 before breaking sharply into the end of the week. The benchmark March 10-Year Notes reached a high at 133’01.5 before weakening into Friday’s close and April Gold, which spiked up to its highest level since May 2015 at $1263.90, also indicated the presence of sellers at the end of the week.
The price action into the end of the week indicates that a shift in investor sentiment may be taking place or that investors overdid the selling in the equity markets and the buying in the Treasurys and gold. This suggests that the markets may be due for a major adjustment while investors reassess the state of the economy given the testimony by Yellen and the strength of the U.S. retail sales report.
The price adjustment could take place this week, driven mostly by the momentum into Friday’s close. On Wednesday, the FOMC Meeting minutes will be released. This should give greater insight into the thinking of the committee members.
If the minutes show that the FOMC members still believe the economy is strong enough to warrant additional rate hikes in 2016 then we could see weakness in the Treasurys and gold. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, will likely be underpinned by the news. The jury is still out on the direction of the equity markets because several factors like the turmoil in international bank stocks are still exerting their influence on stocks.
We could see more volatility if the FOMC minutes indicate dissension between the member over the timing and pace of the additional rate hikes. This will likely cause uncertainty because it will likely lead to a lack of confidence in the Fed’s ability to judge the state of the economy.
In summary, look for early strength in the U.S. stock markets this week and general weakness in the Treasurys and gold as investors continue to react to Yellen’s upbeat assessment of the economy and the better-than-expected U.S. retail data.
Watch for volatility to return with the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday, February 17. The markets are likely to continue their moves from earlier in the week if the FOMC members are on the same page for additional rate hikes. However, we could see excessive volatility if the FOMC members disagreed on the timing and pace of the additional rate increases.
James A. Hyerczyk is a financial analyst for FX Empire, a leading financial portal. James has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann. James A. Hyerczyk is a senior analyst at FX Empire. He has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.
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1 week to go until FMAS:24 kicks off and we couldn't skip our interviews with some of this year's sponsors 🤩 Starting off strong with Hannelé De Necker, CEO OF IFX Brokers.
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FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa