Analyzing the markets is like detective work, search for evidence and determine a conclusion. The US dollar is giving many clues not only to the longer term direction, but also to a possible important bottom forming right now.
Long Term Evidence
Sometimes clues can be found with something as simple as a ruler. Please examine the US Dollar (DX) chart in Figure 1.
Note that the long-term declining trend line connecting the peaks made in 1985 and 2001 has been broken. This is a very important piece of evidence considering that the declining trend line covers a multi decade time period. The break above the line implies several more years of a US dollar bull market. Also note the DX decline from the March 2015 peak has so far found support at the trend line.
Now let's narrow the focus to the last five years. Please examine the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) weekly chart in Figure 2.
Note that the Relative Strength Index or RSI hit a high of 86.72 which corresponds with the five-year UUP high made in March 2015. The RSI is a momentum indicator that is used to determine overbought and oversold conditions. Any reading over 70 is considered overbought, readings below 30 are oversold.
The RSI is a terrific indicator and there are many ways it can be utilized. One very important aspect of the RSI is that major trend changes almost always require at least one bullish or bearish divergence. Using the recent UUP March peak as an example, the price peak corresponded with the RSI high of 86.72.
To have a bearish divergence the UUP would have to rally to above the March peak of 26.50 with an RSI reading below 86.72.
The March 2015 RSI reading of 86.72 is the highest this indicator has been since the major UUP bottom made in 2011. The rally from the intermediate bottom made in 2014 took ten months and brought the RSI deep into overbought territory. This created a situation in which the UUP needed to decline at least a few months to relieve the extreme overbought condition. The recent two month decline has brought the RSI to the neutral zone area of 50.00 - the UUP could now be in position to begin the next leg of the bull market, possibly going far above the March 2015 26.50 pinnacle.
Short-Term Evidence
Now let's shift our focus to the UUP activity since the intermediate bottom made on May 6th, 2014. Please examine the UUP daily chart in Figure.3
The UUP rally from May 2014 to March 2015 was smooth and steady, the signature of an impulsive Elliott wave. Impulsive waves subdivide into five waves and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree.
The subsequent decline from March 2015 also gives clues that UUP is still in a bull market. The March to May decline so far is three waves down. The basic Elliott wave bullish form is five waves up followed by three waves down. Even the depth of the March to May drop gives a clue that the March 13th, 2015 top was a “third wave” up of a larger five wave pattern. Typically, wave “two” corrections are deep, anywhere from 61.8% to 99% of the prior wave “one”. Wave “four” corrections are shallow, usually between 23.6% to 38.2% of the prior wave “three” rally.
The May 2014 to March 2015 rally was 5.36 points multiplied by .382 equals 2.04.
The March 2015 peak of 26.50 minus 2.04 targets 24.46 the actual bottom May 15th was 24.47 a bulls eye hit!
It is possible that the wave “four” correction could still be under construction. The decline that ended on May 15th is an Elliott wave single Zigzag. Sometimes this pattern can extend into a double Zigzag; where the first Zigzag completes, followed by an intervening wave, referred to as an “X” wave, then finishing with a second Zigzag.
A clue that this process could be underway comes from a fascinating Fibonacci time ratio.
Near term if UUP is still in a decline it will probably make only a marginal new low below 24.47. Regardless of any further near term decline, UUP should be bought now. The combination of a long-term declining trend line break, Elliott wave formation and Fibonacci support level present a favorable risk to reward ratio.
If a US dollar bull market is in effect- the minimum upside target is the DX 2001 peak near the 120 level, about a 26% increase from current levels. Approximately 31.10 on the UUP.
Place the stop sell order for UUP at 23.50, this is just below the maximum level of decline for a possible double Zigzag formation.
If the US dollar bull market continues, there will be a fundamental reason behind the move. Unfortunately, it will come too late for a low risk entry. Opportunity is knocking now. Heed the call.
Analyzing the markets is like detective work, search for evidence and determine a conclusion. The US dollar is giving many clues not only to the longer term direction, but also to a possible important bottom forming right now.
Long Term Evidence
Sometimes clues can be found with something as simple as a ruler. Please examine the US Dollar (DX) chart in Figure 1.
Note that the long-term declining trend line connecting the peaks made in 1985 and 2001 has been broken. This is a very important piece of evidence considering that the declining trend line covers a multi decade time period. The break above the line implies several more years of a US dollar bull market. Also note the DX decline from the March 2015 peak has so far found support at the trend line.
Now let's narrow the focus to the last five years. Please examine the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) weekly chart in Figure 2.
Note that the Relative Strength Index or RSI hit a high of 86.72 which corresponds with the five-year UUP high made in March 2015. The RSI is a momentum indicator that is used to determine overbought and oversold conditions. Any reading over 70 is considered overbought, readings below 30 are oversold.
The RSI is a terrific indicator and there are many ways it can be utilized. One very important aspect of the RSI is that major trend changes almost always require at least one bullish or bearish divergence. Using the recent UUP March peak as an example, the price peak corresponded with the RSI high of 86.72.
To have a bearish divergence the UUP would have to rally to above the March peak of 26.50 with an RSI reading below 86.72.
The March 2015 RSI reading of 86.72 is the highest this indicator has been since the major UUP bottom made in 2011. The rally from the intermediate bottom made in 2014 took ten months and brought the RSI deep into overbought territory. This created a situation in which the UUP needed to decline at least a few months to relieve the extreme overbought condition. The recent two month decline has brought the RSI to the neutral zone area of 50.00 - the UUP could now be in position to begin the next leg of the bull market, possibly going far above the March 2015 26.50 pinnacle.
Short-Term Evidence
Now let's shift our focus to the UUP activity since the intermediate bottom made on May 6th, 2014. Please examine the UUP daily chart in Figure.3
The UUP rally from May 2014 to March 2015 was smooth and steady, the signature of an impulsive Elliott wave. Impulsive waves subdivide into five waves and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree.
The subsequent decline from March 2015 also gives clues that UUP is still in a bull market. The March to May decline so far is three waves down. The basic Elliott wave bullish form is five waves up followed by three waves down. Even the depth of the March to May drop gives a clue that the March 13th, 2015 top was a “third wave” up of a larger five wave pattern. Typically, wave “two” corrections are deep, anywhere from 61.8% to 99% of the prior wave “one”. Wave “four” corrections are shallow, usually between 23.6% to 38.2% of the prior wave “three” rally.
The May 2014 to March 2015 rally was 5.36 points multiplied by .382 equals 2.04.
The March 2015 peak of 26.50 minus 2.04 targets 24.46 the actual bottom May 15th was 24.47 a bulls eye hit!
It is possible that the wave “four” correction could still be under construction. The decline that ended on May 15th is an Elliott wave single Zigzag. Sometimes this pattern can extend into a double Zigzag; where the first Zigzag completes, followed by an intervening wave, referred to as an “X” wave, then finishing with a second Zigzag.
A clue that this process could be underway comes from a fascinating Fibonacci time ratio.
Near term if UUP is still in a decline it will probably make only a marginal new low below 24.47. Regardless of any further near term decline, UUP should be bought now. The combination of a long-term declining trend line break, Elliott wave formation and Fibonacci support level present a favorable risk to reward ratio.
If a US dollar bull market is in effect- the minimum upside target is the DX 2001 peak near the 120 level, about a 26% increase from current levels. Approximately 31.10 on the UUP.
Place the stop sell order for UUP at 23.50, this is just below the maximum level of decline for a possible double Zigzag formation.
If the US dollar bull market continues, there will be a fundamental reason behind the move. Unfortunately, it will come too late for a low risk entry. Opportunity is knocking now. Heed the call.
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
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Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
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▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔