After a well publicized campaign for Scottish independence, GBP currency trading goes back to rock, Sterling spiked higher as results started to flock in only to give up earlier gains in early European hours.
After weeks of speculation and one questionable YouGov poll result which gave the lead to the NO campaign, trading desks across the industry can take a breather - the Black Swan event never materialized. The Scots rejected independence and voted to remain in the United Kingdom.
Media-induced panic surrounded the vote in recent weeks during which one poll caused some head-scratching and a 150 pips gap in the GBP/USD pair by giving the lead to the YES campaign. Trading on the CME Group of Sterling contracts ramped up with reports of a record high open interest in the UK currency.
A note by French Bank Credit Agricole on Thursday morning stated, “By 8:30 AM on Friday, the pound could be back at 1.6850 if the vote goes the way polls are now showing.”
It’s 9AM on Friday and all we have seen from the pound is a knee-jerk reaction to mark a multi-week high just a touch above 1.6500, and here we are again closing in on the 1.6400 figure.
Analysts at Standard Chartered were much more guarded in their commentary stating, “We see a much greater impact on the GBP and UK assets on a ‘Yes’ than a ‘No’ vote to Scottish independence.”
Despite the “all eyes on Scotland” titles across the press, concerns about a ‘Yes’ vote were never priced into the market. Global hedge funds have long been using their own data to assess the risks surrounding a geopolitical event of this scale.
If there had been any material risk of a secession, we would have witnessed levels much closer to 1.50 to the USD. Unicredit Research acknowledged this in a morning statement, “The decline in Sterling since the beginning of July has been driven by the re-pricing of rate expectations until about early September.”
However, the bank’s note goes on to say, “Previously the British pound was trading around 1.66 and thus we feel that the ‘No’ victory will provide the impetus for a return towards this level in the short-term.”
The author of this article materially disagrees with these notions presented by bank researchers - the only reaction to a potential Scottish independence came just after the release of the YouGov poll which gave the lead to the Yes campaign for the first time in a while, causing GBP/USD to drop towards 1.6050 on September 10th in the aftermath of the news.
According to T.Rowe Price International Bond Fund Manager, Christopher Rothery, even a victory for the ‘No’ campaign would cause longer-term political damage and undermine the pound. Every Labor party victory in the coming months will mean less fiscal discipline at a time when the UK trade deficit is close to all-time highs.
FX Volatility seems to remain unscathed by the turmoil. The Sterling is already tumbling to levels of 150 pips below those seen earlier this morning. GBP/USD bulls are in shambles - just hours after the biggest potential cause for buying the pound.
After weeks of speculation and one questionable YouGov poll result which gave the lead to the NO campaign, trading desks across the industry can take a breather - the Black Swan event never materialized. The Scots rejected independence and voted to remain in the United Kingdom.
Media-induced panic surrounded the vote in recent weeks during which one poll caused some head-scratching and a 150 pips gap in the GBP/USD pair by giving the lead to the YES campaign. Trading on the CME Group of Sterling contracts ramped up with reports of a record high open interest in the UK currency.
A note by French Bank Credit Agricole on Thursday morning stated, “By 8:30 AM on Friday, the pound could be back at 1.6850 if the vote goes the way polls are now showing.”
It’s 9AM on Friday and all we have seen from the pound is a knee-jerk reaction to mark a multi-week high just a touch above 1.6500, and here we are again closing in on the 1.6400 figure.
Analysts at Standard Chartered were much more guarded in their commentary stating, “We see a much greater impact on the GBP and UK assets on a ‘Yes’ than a ‘No’ vote to Scottish independence.”
Despite the “all eyes on Scotland” titles across the press, concerns about a ‘Yes’ vote were never priced into the market. Global hedge funds have long been using their own data to assess the risks surrounding a geopolitical event of this scale.
If there had been any material risk of a secession, we would have witnessed levels much closer to 1.50 to the USD. Unicredit Research acknowledged this in a morning statement, “The decline in Sterling since the beginning of July has been driven by the re-pricing of rate expectations until about early September.”
However, the bank’s note goes on to say, “Previously the British pound was trading around 1.66 and thus we feel that the ‘No’ victory will provide the impetus for a return towards this level in the short-term.”
The author of this article materially disagrees with these notions presented by bank researchers - the only reaction to a potential Scottish independence came just after the release of the YouGov poll which gave the lead to the Yes campaign for the first time in a while, causing GBP/USD to drop towards 1.6050 on September 10th in the aftermath of the news.
According to T.Rowe Price International Bond Fund Manager, Christopher Rothery, even a victory for the ‘No’ campaign would cause longer-term political damage and undermine the pound. Every Labor party victory in the coming months will mean less fiscal discipline at a time when the UK trade deficit is close to all-time highs.
FX Volatility seems to remain unscathed by the turmoil. The Sterling is already tumbling to levels of 150 pips below those seen earlier this morning. GBP/USD bulls are in shambles - just hours after the biggest potential cause for buying the pound.
Interactive Brokers Expands Offerings with Daily Options on French Stocks
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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