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As the Fed Mulls Pulling the Normalization Trigger, Can Bullish Markets Bear It?
As the Fed Mulls Pulling the Normalization Trigger, Can Bullish Markets Bear It?
by
George Tchetvertakov
The Fed's October meeting is highly anticipated and awaited by market participants of all types. Despite the Fed's pretence, if QE3 officially ends today QE4 will be what the markets scream out for in 2015.
Later today, the US central banking system, the Federal Reserve, will announce its latest monetary policy adjustments after concluding its October meeting.
This month's meeting has been earmarked as being the 'end of QE' by market watchers given the Fed's likely move to cease bond buying and asset purchases.
However, there is also a deeper question of whether the Fed will continue on its recent track of preparing the market for higher rates by removing key references from official communications or making any other inferences towards higher short-term interest rates in the near future.
Even without actual interest rate changes, the Fed outlook has a strong influence on market expectations and subsequent price action in all asset classes. After today's 14:00 EST meeting, the last policy meeting for 2014 is scheduled for December 16-17.
Setting the Stage
The mood going into the October meeting is a dovish one. At the previous meeting in September, Fed Chief Janet Yellen stepped short of telegraphing imminent rate tightening or even a definitive confirmation that ultra-low rates would rise at all. A shift to a more cautious stance was enough for the US dollar to slow its recent appreciation in most FX pairs.
The upcoming FOMC statement could mark the official end of the Fed’s stimulus program, with the central bank expected to withdraw the remaining $15 billion in asset purchases. However, a few Fed officials, including James Bullard (a rare centrist at the Fed) have recently spoken about "delaying the taper" now that weak inflationary pressures are becoming a major concern.
The US economy is going through a mechanization phase whereby firms are able to sustain productivity despite reducing their staff levels - driven by technological innovation and mechanization of most work processes. This element has seemingly been missed by the central bank, as it waits for unemployment rates to fall further and for more people to find work in preparation for 'labor market conditions' and the national economy being sufficiently resilient to embrace higher interest rates.
The reasoning is somewhat myopic because as the US economy is demonstrating, it is possible to have lower corporate revenues alongside higher equity valuations. More corporate profitability alongside lower staffing levels. Lower average earnings, alongside higher productivity. The Fed would probably gather a better analysis of labor market conditions if it included a measure of the nation's propensity to participate in retraining and re-education programs or similar indicators.
All the media focus and actual Fed commentary will center around the ‘debate’ of whether to keep (or not to keep) the ‘short-term rates near zero for a considerable time language’ and given the mania that always accompanies Fed-speak, that is all that speculative markets will need to gyrate. The underlying factor that influences the US dollar and all other markets is whether or not the majority of market participants buy into the Fed’s ‘language’.
In addition to the systemically important Fed meeting, early tomorrow morning Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's National Summit on Diversity in Washington DC. It is likely she will make further comments regarding Fed policy or possibly clarify any market outcry following the FOMC statement. To add spice to the mix, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is publishing preliminary US GDP figures for Q3 2014 (expected at 3.1%) 30 minutes before Yellen's speech.
Market Matters
The Fed’s recent commentary could be described as ‘tentatively hawkish’ at best, and yet this is as close as the Fed has been to tighter monetary policy since 2008. If the Fed holds course and convinces market participants that higher rates are imminent, US dollar gains alongside sharp US equity market losses are likely. The ensuing 'risk-off' price tilts in commodities, fixed income, global equities and FX would be a further testament to the speculative nature of market participants as well as its dependence on margin debt.
However, if the Fed communicates a mixed message with hawkish hints being tempered with dovish clues, US dollar gains are likely to remain capped and US equities can safely rejoin their prevailing uptrends. As is often the case following Fed meetings, regardless of developments, equity markets tend to rise on the presumption that the Fed will support them with an appropriately accommodative policy.
Ultra-low rates combined with Fed market support are driving bullish equity markets, so any policy normalization will have to account for the abnormally strong correlation between equity valuations and margin debt.
If QE3 officially ends today, QE4 will be what the markets scream out for in 2015.
Later today, the US central banking system, the Federal Reserve, will announce its latest monetary policy adjustments after concluding its October meeting.
This month's meeting has been earmarked as being the 'end of QE' by market watchers given the Fed's likely move to cease bond buying and asset purchases.
However, there is also a deeper question of whether the Fed will continue on its recent track of preparing the market for higher rates by removing key references from official communications or making any other inferences towards higher short-term interest rates in the near future.
Even without actual interest rate changes, the Fed outlook has a strong influence on market expectations and subsequent price action in all asset classes. After today's 14:00 EST meeting, the last policy meeting for 2014 is scheduled for December 16-17.
Setting the Stage
The mood going into the October meeting is a dovish one. At the previous meeting in September, Fed Chief Janet Yellen stepped short of telegraphing imminent rate tightening or even a definitive confirmation that ultra-low rates would rise at all. A shift to a more cautious stance was enough for the US dollar to slow its recent appreciation in most FX pairs.
The upcoming FOMC statement could mark the official end of the Fed’s stimulus program, with the central bank expected to withdraw the remaining $15 billion in asset purchases. However, a few Fed officials, including James Bullard (a rare centrist at the Fed) have recently spoken about "delaying the taper" now that weak inflationary pressures are becoming a major concern.
The US economy is going through a mechanization phase whereby firms are able to sustain productivity despite reducing their staff levels - driven by technological innovation and mechanization of most work processes. This element has seemingly been missed by the central bank, as it waits for unemployment rates to fall further and for more people to find work in preparation for 'labor market conditions' and the national economy being sufficiently resilient to embrace higher interest rates.
The reasoning is somewhat myopic because as the US economy is demonstrating, it is possible to have lower corporate revenues alongside higher equity valuations. More corporate profitability alongside lower staffing levels. Lower average earnings, alongside higher productivity. The Fed would probably gather a better analysis of labor market conditions if it included a measure of the nation's propensity to participate in retraining and re-education programs or similar indicators.
All the media focus and actual Fed commentary will center around the ‘debate’ of whether to keep (or not to keep) the ‘short-term rates near zero for a considerable time language’ and given the mania that always accompanies Fed-speak, that is all that speculative markets will need to gyrate. The underlying factor that influences the US dollar and all other markets is whether or not the majority of market participants buy into the Fed’s ‘language’.
In addition to the systemically important Fed meeting, early tomorrow morning Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's National Summit on Diversity in Washington DC. It is likely she will make further comments regarding Fed policy or possibly clarify any market outcry following the FOMC statement. To add spice to the mix, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is publishing preliminary US GDP figures for Q3 2014 (expected at 3.1%) 30 minutes before Yellen's speech.
Market Matters
The Fed’s recent commentary could be described as ‘tentatively hawkish’ at best, and yet this is as close as the Fed has been to tighter monetary policy since 2008. If the Fed holds course and convinces market participants that higher rates are imminent, US dollar gains alongside sharp US equity market losses are likely. The ensuing 'risk-off' price tilts in commodities, fixed income, global equities and FX would be a further testament to the speculative nature of market participants as well as its dependence on margin debt.
However, if the Fed communicates a mixed message with hawkish hints being tempered with dovish clues, US dollar gains are likely to remain capped and US equities can safely rejoin their prevailing uptrends. As is often the case following Fed meetings, regardless of developments, equity markets tend to rise on the presumption that the Fed will support them with an appropriately accommodative policy.
Ultra-low rates combined with Fed market support are driving bullish equity markets, so any policy normalization will have to account for the abnormally strong correlation between equity valuations and margin debt.
If QE3 officially ends today, QE4 will be what the markets scream out for in 2015.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔