Google Opens the Ad Door to Prediction Markets and Keeps It Shut on Binary Options

Google will allow prediction market ads in the U.S. only for federally regulated firms, distinguishing CFTC-regulated event contracts from binary options, which remain prohibited.

Starting January 21, 2026, Google will permit ads for “Exchange-Listed Event Contracts.” Only CFTC-authorized platforms, such as Kalshi, or brokerages registered with the NFA offering access to approved DCMs, may qualify.

By setting these conditions, Google uses regulatory status as a primary criterion for access to its advertising platform. While the company is not acting as a financial regulator, its policy makes advertising access contingent on federal oversight of products.

Why Google Allows Prediction Markets but Bans Binary Options

Under the updated rules, prediction markets are permitted to advertise only if the provider is licensed and regulated by the CFTC and categorised under Google’s “Financial Services” policies. Binary options, meanwhile, remain entirely prohibited, including ads from offshore platforms, affiliated educational websites, signal providers, and broker review sites.

Google states that the distinction is based on consumer protection considerations. The company notes that binary options are frequently associated with misleading promotions, systemic abuse, and financial harm.

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The prediction markets are treated as supervised financial instruments rather than mass-market retail products, allowing advertising only for providers operating within a licensed and regulated framework where risk is considered manageable.

What This Means for the Market

The policy change reshapes the competitive landscape. Firms that have invested in obtaining CFTC approval gain access to one of the most influential advertising channels in the U.S. market, while unregulated platforms and binary options providers remain excluded.

For platforms such as Kalshi and brokerages that offer access to regulated event contracts, the update removes a long-standing distribution constraint. At the same time, it reinforces the cost of remaining outside the federal regulatory perimeter, particularly for offshore and lightly regulated operators.

The move highlights a trend in which technology platforms align advertising access with regulatory frameworks. In this case, Google’s policy ties market visibility to federal licensing status.