Contrary to exit polls, Polymarket bettors are still favouring Trump’s victory.
Meanwhile, BTC recently exceeded $73,000, only to drop below $69,000.
The US Presidential election is only a day away. Although current Vice President Kamala Harris started on the back foot in her race against former President Donald Trump, her odds on Polymarket have narrowed significantly recently.
Harris Leads Polls, but Trump Is Bettors’ Favourite
The odds between Harris and Trump have always been narrow in various election polls. In the New York Times poll, Harris is even ahead of Trump, though the lead is very marginal—only 1 percentage point. A similar sentiment can be seen across other US election polls.
However, in the betting markets, where real money is involved, things are different. Polymarket, the largest blockchain-based betting market, keeps Trump ahead of Harris. The gap between them widened to 66.6:33.4 in favor of Trump last week but pushed Harris up over the weekend, narrowing the gap to 56:42, still in Trump’s favor.
Although Polymarket is the largest election betting market, with a volume of more than $2.8 billion, it is an offshore platform. Interestingly, political betting is also available in the US. Kalshi and Interactive Brokers-owned ForecastEx are the top two platforms, but their volumes remain significantly lower than their crypto counterpart.
The bettors on Kalshi are giving Trump a 52 percent odd against 48 percent for Harris on a market of over $185.6 million.
However, ForecastEx is a bit different as it has two separate markets for Harris’s and Trump’s victories. Only 49 percent of the ForecastEx bettors bought the contract favoring Harris’s win, while 54 percent of the bettors favored a Trump victory. The market betting on Harris’s victory has over $80.3 million in open interest, while the one for Trump’s victory has over $74.1 million.
The Legal Political Betting Market in the US
Notably, the onshore dollar-based US elections prediction markets received a setback in opening political markets, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) blocked Kalshi over concerns regarding gaming and other activities that were not in the public’s interest. However, Kalshi sued the agency, and the court sided with it; even an appeals court favored the prediction market.
“Ensuring the integrity of elections and avoiding improper interference and misinformation are undoubtedly paramount public interests, and a substantiated risk of distorting the electoral process would amount to irreparable harm,” the ruling by an appeals court in favor of Kalshi stated.
“The problem is that the CFTC has given this court no concrete basis to conclude that event contracts would likely be a vehicle for such harms.”
Bitcoin Tests Another All-Time High
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also testing a new all-time high ahead of the US elections. Bitcoin, which has a market cap of $1.3 trillion, went past $73,000 and almost touched its previous all-time high. However, the token’s price dropped from that near-peak and is currently moving around $69,000.
Bitcoin price movement; Source: Google Finance
David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX; Photo: LinkedIn
“The relationship between election win odds and crypto prices has fluctuated significantly, partly due to multiple non-electoral factors driving markets. The strongest correlations emerged during periods of Republican momentum—both in mid-July and in recent days,” said David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX.
However, Ether, the second-largest token on the crypto market, underperformed. The only major asset that outperformed Bitcoin was DOGE.
“DOGE was the sole major asset to outperform BTC this week, perhaps due to the Elon Musk association amid election news flow,” Lawant added.
“After six months of directionless trading, markets appear eager to move past election uncertainty towards firmer ground,” he continued. “Trading volumes, typically a reliable confirmation of crypto trends, are starting to show signs of life and have jumped 30–40% above their three-month average in the past couple of days.”
The US Presidential election is only a day away. Although current Vice President Kamala Harris started on the back foot in her race against former President Donald Trump, her odds on Polymarket have narrowed significantly recently.
Harris Leads Polls, but Trump Is Bettors’ Favourite
The odds between Harris and Trump have always been narrow in various election polls. In the New York Times poll, Harris is even ahead of Trump, though the lead is very marginal—only 1 percentage point. A similar sentiment can be seen across other US election polls.
However, in the betting markets, where real money is involved, things are different. Polymarket, the largest blockchain-based betting market, keeps Trump ahead of Harris. The gap between them widened to 66.6:33.4 in favor of Trump last week but pushed Harris up over the weekend, narrowing the gap to 56:42, still in Trump’s favor.
Although Polymarket is the largest election betting market, with a volume of more than $2.8 billion, it is an offshore platform. Interestingly, political betting is also available in the US. Kalshi and Interactive Brokers-owned ForecastEx are the top two platforms, but their volumes remain significantly lower than their crypto counterpart.
The bettors on Kalshi are giving Trump a 52 percent odd against 48 percent for Harris on a market of over $185.6 million.
However, ForecastEx is a bit different as it has two separate markets for Harris’s and Trump’s victories. Only 49 percent of the ForecastEx bettors bought the contract favoring Harris’s win, while 54 percent of the bettors favored a Trump victory. The market betting on Harris’s victory has over $80.3 million in open interest, while the one for Trump’s victory has over $74.1 million.
The Legal Political Betting Market in the US
Notably, the onshore dollar-based US elections prediction markets received a setback in opening political markets, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) blocked Kalshi over concerns regarding gaming and other activities that were not in the public’s interest. However, Kalshi sued the agency, and the court sided with it; even an appeals court favored the prediction market.
“Ensuring the integrity of elections and avoiding improper interference and misinformation are undoubtedly paramount public interests, and a substantiated risk of distorting the electoral process would amount to irreparable harm,” the ruling by an appeals court in favor of Kalshi stated.
“The problem is that the CFTC has given this court no concrete basis to conclude that event contracts would likely be a vehicle for such harms.”
Bitcoin Tests Another All-Time High
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also testing a new all-time high ahead of the US elections. Bitcoin, which has a market cap of $1.3 trillion, went past $73,000 and almost touched its previous all-time high. However, the token’s price dropped from that near-peak and is currently moving around $69,000.
Bitcoin price movement; Source: Google Finance
David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX; Photo: LinkedIn
“The relationship between election win odds and crypto prices has fluctuated significantly, partly due to multiple non-electoral factors driving markets. The strongest correlations emerged during periods of Republican momentum—both in mid-July and in recent days,” said David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX.
However, Ether, the second-largest token on the crypto market, underperformed. The only major asset that outperformed Bitcoin was DOGE.
“DOGE was the sole major asset to outperform BTC this week, perhaps due to the Elon Musk association amid election news flow,” Lawant added.
“After six months of directionless trading, markets appear eager to move past election uncertainty towards firmer ground,” he continued. “Trading volumes, typically a reliable confirmation of crypto trends, are starting to show signs of life and have jumped 30–40% above their three-month average in the past couple of days.”
Arnab is an electronics engineer-turned-financial editor. He entered the industry covering the cryptocurrency market for Finance Magnates and later expanded his reach to forex as well. He is passionate about the changing regulatory landscape on financial markets and keenly follows the disruptions in the industry with new-age technologies.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
Executive Interview | Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller| CEO & Founder Muinmos | FMLS:25
Executive Interview | Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller| CEO & Founder Muinmos | FMLS:25
In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this conversation, we speak with Aydin Bonabi, CEO and co-founder of Surveill, a firm focused on fraud detection and AI-driven compliance tools for financial institutions.
We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
In this conversation, we speak with Aydin Bonabi, CEO and co-founder of Surveill, a firm focused on fraud detection and AI-driven compliance tools for financial institutions.
We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Executive Interview | Jas Shah | FMLS:25
Executive Interview | Jas Shah | FMLS:25
Interview with Jas Shah
Builder | Adviser | Fintech Writer | Product Strategist
In this episode, Jonathan Fine sat down with Jas Shah, one of the most thoughtful voices in global fintech. Known for his work across advisory, product, stablecoins, and his widely read writing, Jas brings a rare combination of industry insight and plain-spoken clarity.
We talk about his first impression of the Summit, the projects that keep him busy today, and how they connect to the stablecoin panel he joined. Jas shares his view on the link between fintech, wealthtech and retail brokers, especially as firms like Revolut, eToro and Trading212 blur long-standing lines in the market.
We also explore what stablecoin adoption might look like for retail investment platforms, including a few product and UX angles that are not obvious at first glance.
To close, Jas explains how he thinks about writing, and how he approaches “shipping” pieces that spark debate across the industry.
Interview with Jas Shah
Builder | Adviser | Fintech Writer | Product Strategist
In this episode, Jonathan Fine sat down with Jas Shah, one of the most thoughtful voices in global fintech. Known for his work across advisory, product, stablecoins, and his widely read writing, Jas brings a rare combination of industry insight and plain-spoken clarity.
We talk about his first impression of the Summit, the projects that keep him busy today, and how they connect to the stablecoin panel he joined. Jas shares his view on the link between fintech, wealthtech and retail brokers, especially as firms like Revolut, eToro and Trading212 blur long-standing lines in the market.
We also explore what stablecoin adoption might look like for retail investment platforms, including a few product and UX angles that are not obvious at first glance.
To close, Jas explains how he thinks about writing, and how he approaches “shipping” pieces that spark debate across the industry.
