Analysis provided by Ashton Fraser, learn more about his Forex Reversals trading strategies.
Namecoin’s bears are gathering momentum this morning; let’s take a closer look at the H4 chart below (click to expand).
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Straight away we can see how price has already reached the 38.2% Fib retracement level, and in fact, this line has already been tested two times before, on the 26th. On both occasions price reacted, initiated a period of consolidation, and in fact hasn’t touched that area since, until today, and right now that is.
Seeing as though price reacted off the 38.2% on two previous attempts, I’d suggest that will likely happen again. However, the difference on this occasion is, it’s unlikely for price to be contained within the line for too long. I expect price shall break 3.225 within the next 24 hours, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, we can see how both the Bill William’s Oscillators (Accelerator and Awesome) have both turned red. Secondly, the Stochastics are heading downwards with a smooth trajectory. Finally, the previous three candles are all bearish candles, with barely any wicks between them, indicating the bears are getting stronger.
There may be some further choppiness over the course of the day, but the overall trend is very likely going to continue south. We should see price hit the 50% retracement level by the weekend. If it doesn’t it would be because the 38.2% level, whilst on it’s own is a solid support level, is strengthened by the fact it’s a psychological round number as well, namely, 3.200.