Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has committed up to $2 billion to acquire a stake in Polymarket, joining a growing roster of established financial institutions betting on prediction markets as retail demand for event-based contracts accelerates.

NYSE Parent ICE Invests $2 Billion in Polymarket

The investment values the crypto-based prediction platform at approximately $8 billion pre-money. Under the agreement announced today (Tuesday), ICE will distribute Polymarket's event probability data to institutional clients worldwide and collaborate on future tokenization projects.

“There are opportunities across markets which ICE, together with Polymarket, can uniquely serve,” said Jeffrey Sprecher, ICE's chairman and chief executive.

The move positions ICE against Chicago rival CME Group, which partnered with sports betting company FanDuel in August to develop similar event contracts. That joint venture will allow FanDuel's millions of customers to trade financial market outcomes with wagers starting at $1, targeting products tied to equity indices, commodities, and economic indicators.

Competition Intensifies with Kalshi

ICE's entry comes as Polymarket faces mounting pressure from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated competitor that has seized market leadership in recent months. Between September 11–17, Kalshi captured 62% of total prediction market volume compared to Polymarket's 37%, processing over $500 million in weekly trades, according to Dune Analytics data. That share has since widened to 65%.

The shift represents a reversal from late 2024, when Polymarket commanded 95% of the market. Kalshi raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation in its most recent funding round , backed by crypto-focused investors Paradigm and Multicoin.

Analysts attribute Kalshi's gains to faster position turnover compared to Polymarket's longer-duration markets.

“Stickier positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi” characterize the platforms' divergent trading patterns, with Kalshi maintaining average open interest of $189 million versus Polymarket's $164 million during the September period.

The prediction market sector has drawn increasing interest from retail traders and professional investors seeking real-time sentiment indicators on market-moving events. Both Kalshi and Polymarket gained attention during the 2024 election cycle for generating outcome probabilities that closely tracked final results, though trading volumes declined following the vote.

Competition between Kalshi and Polymarket is clearly intensifying. Just a few days ago, Kalshi’s new head of crypto, 23-year-old John Wang, mentioned that he wants the event contracts offered by his company to soon be available on all major crypto exchanges.

Regulatory Questions Persist

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket operates peer-to-peer smart contracts that allow users to buy and sell shares representing event outcomes. The platform has facilitated billions of dollars in wagers across politics, sports, and current events this year, gaining prominence as the official prediction market partner of X and Stocktwits.

However, Polymarket currently blocks U.S. users following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company paid $1.4 million to resolve charges that it operated an unregistered exchange and recently acquired regulated derivatives venue QCX in an attempt to re-enter the American market.

ICE expects the all-cash transaction to have minimal impact on its 2025 financial results or capital return plans. The company will provide additional details during its third-quarter earnings call scheduled for October 30.

Coplan said the partnership represents “a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” adding that combining ICE's institutional infrastructure with Polymarket's retail reach would deliver “world-class products for the modern investor.”

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