Crypto exchange Bitnomial is set to launch the first-ever Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated XRP futures in the United States today (Thursday), following its decision to voluntarily dismiss a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

XRP Futures Break New Ground as Bitnomial Ends SEC Standoff

The Chicago-based firm announced that the physically settled XRP futures will be available to current users starting March 20, marking a significant milestone for cryptocurrency derivatives in the U.S. market.

"Regulatory clarity has improved," Bitnomial stated in its announcement, explaining the rationale behind dropping its legal action against the SEC, which had previously blocked the exchange's attempts to list XRP futures.

Clients seeking access to Bitnomial's XRP futures can onboard through one of the exchange 's Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) partners, including R.J. O'Brien and Associates, Marex Capital Markets, Inc., or Bitnomial Clearing, LLC.

Why Is XRP Price Going Up Today?

XRP's price surged approximately 12% following the news, trading at $2.53 with a market capitalization exceeding $148 billion, making it the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value.

Although XRP is correcting by just under 4% on March 20, 2025, and changing hands at $2.45 at the time of writing, it remains above the 50 EMA moving average and close to three-week highs.

How does the situation look from a technical perspective? Based on my technical analysis, the XRP to USDT price has been moving in a downward-sloping regression channel since January's peaks. While both market sides are currently testing the upper and lower boundaries of this channel, there's also a fairly wide resistance zone giving bears additional advantages.

This resistance zone is defined by the peaks from late 2024, ranging from $2.60 to almost $2.89, which were subsequently tested as support at the beginning of this year. These levels coincide with the upper boundary of the downward channel, which leads me to lean more toward an XRP price correction rather than a continuation of the rebound (despite several favorable developments for XRP).

I identify important support at the $2 level: this is not only a psychological threshold but also a zone that XRP has tested six times since December, each time providing a stronger impulse for a rebound. If the price falls below this level, bulls can still rely on support provided by the regression channel, currently around $1.80, which coincides with the February 3 lows when the price temporarily dropped to just $1.77.

The introduction of physically settled XRP futures represents a significant development for the cryptocurrency derivatives market in the United States. Physical settlement means actual delivery of the underlying asset occurs at contract expiration, potentially creating more direct market impact than cash-settled alternatives.

How the End of the SEC Case May Influence the XRP Market

Dr Kirill Kretov, at Coinpanel, provided his detailed analysis of XRP price for Finance Magnates:

"Looking at the daily chart (top-left), the price surge following the SEC announcement (marked by the green candle on March 19) is notable, but it’s not the largest one since the start of 2025. On March 2, XRP saw a sharp price increase following the news of its addition to the Strategic Crypto Reserve was three times larger than the current price jump. This suggests that previous bullish catalysts, such as the broader pro-crypto sentiment associated with Donald Trump, had a stronger influence on the market. At present, investors appear to be more cautious, likely due to lingering uncertainties."

"A closer look at the charts also reveals an interesting trend: since November, XRP has largely followed Bitcoin’s upward trajectory (compare the top-left chart with the bottom-left chart). On the hourly chart (top-right), the recent price increase appears significant. It’s also worth noting that a short uptrend had already begun on the evening of March 18—potentially indicating that some market participants were anticipating the positive announcement. On a broader scale, we may also observe accumulation patterns starting from March 11."

His predictions? "Realistically, I would anticipate a price increase of 10-20%, which is already a strong return by traditional financial standards. Given that much of this move has already played out following the SEC news, the opportunity for further significant gains may be limited—unless a new catalyst emerges."

XRP News: Regulatory Battle Concludes

The path to launching XRP futures wasn't straightforward for Bitnomial. The exchange initially filed a self-certification with the CFTC to list XRP futures contracts in August 2024, but faced resistance from the SEC, which insisted Bitnomial register as a securities exchange before proceeding.

This regulatory standoff led Bitnomial to sue the SEC and its five commissioners on October 10, accusing the agency of overstepping its jurisdiction by classifying XRP as a security.

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SEC Drops XRP Lawsuit

The exchange's decision to drop its lawsuit coincides with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's announcement that the SEC has abandoned its appeal against a July 2023 ruling by Judge Analisa Torres, which found that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors.

"I'm finally able to announce that the case has ended; it's over," Garlinghouse stated in a video message. "We're now closing a chapter in crypto history."

Shifting Regulatory Landscape

The developments at Bitnomial reflect a broader shift in the U.S. regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies. Under new leadership following Gary Gensler's departure as SEC Chair, the agency has been walking back several enforcement actions against crypto firms.

Mark Uyeda, the SEC's acting chair, recently indicated plans to scrap a rule proposed under the Biden administration that would tighten crypto custody standards for investment advisers. He has also suggested abandoning proposed changes that would require crypto firms to register as exchanges.

This regulatory pivot comes as the Trump administration appears to be taking a more accommodating stance toward the cryptocurrency industry, with Garlinghouse emphasizing that "it's time to make the United States the crypto capital of the world."