Falling unemployment and fiscal policies have been underpinning growth, but banking sector slumps still looms large.
The fluid conditions across the Euro Area continue to spotlight the uneven recovery of economic fundamentals despite the extreme amount of accommodation already in place.
Germany in particular has benefited from the conditions as a result of increased competitiveness. However, despite the bullishness on the economy relative to other European peers, certain metrics remain in troubling territory.
This is widely reflected by the overwhelmingly negative performance of the DAX 30 components over the last 52-weeks and since the outset of 2016.
Even with a growing emphasis on fighting deflation and improving trade, the German economy remains unbalanced, contributing to an uncertain outlook for the DAX 30. Although the index is still in the process of rebounding from February lows, without a positive backdrop to support further gains, the longer-term downtrend may resume.
Macro support
On the whole, Germany has been a strong performer from a purely fundamental perspective over the years.
Severe underperformance of the German banking sector has been dragging on the index, specifically Deutsche Bank's -33.36% tumble
Falling unemployment and fiscal discipline have been hallmarks of the policies driving sustained growth in the region in spite of troubling external conditions. Helping the positive momentum has been a supportive monetary policy environment, especially with the nation on the cusp of deflation with headline annualized inflation last printing at 0.10%.
While a number of data points that have lent themselves towards optimism in German stocks, namely better trade, there still is substantial cause for concern.
From purely a charting perspective the German DAX remains in an uptrend in the medium-term despite remaining in a longer-term downtrend that has been intact for the better part of the last year.
Even after climbing above the 10000 psychological level, a reversal will not be confirmed until the index is able to overcome resistance sitting firmly at 11350. There are several factors contributing to the near-term bullish bias that might enable the DAX 30 to reach these levels, namely the 50-day moving average which is acting as support at the moment.
Although the 200-day moving average remains in a downward trend, acting as resistance against any upside momentum, should this level be broken to the upside by the 50-day moving average and DAX 30 price action, it could signal another leg higher in the index.
Outside of the moving averages, the other bullish indication is the upward trending equidistant channel that has been forming since February.
The channel has three points of contact touching both the upper and lower channel lines, suggesting that ideal positions initiated at the lower channel line should target the upper channel line for an exit. However, if the DAX 30 should fall below the lower channel line, a candlestick close below this level would indicate a channel-based breakout to the downside to be confirmed by higher than average trading volumes and heightened directional momentum.
Upcoming factors that could shift DAX momentum
Looking forward for the DAX 30, there are several factors that could help or harm the ongoing climb in the index. The main items to watch over the coming sessions is the inflation and GDP data coming out on Friday.
Should the annualized CPI print in deflationary territory at -0.10% as is currently forecast by consensus, it could be a sign of worsening domestic conditions.
Additionally, preliminary GDP is anticipated to decelerate to 1.50% expansion on an annualized basis, adding to potential factors stacking up against the DAX.
However, despite tapering in growth, the preliminary first quarter GDP projection is for 0.60% growth, a nice improvement from the 0.30% reported in the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, the tailwinds from monetary policy which remain widely supportive of the index climbing further from current levels. Thanks to the balance sheet expansion undertaken by the European Central Bank, excess cash is likely to find its way towards risk assets especially with interest rates in negative territory.
The expansionary efforts will also continue to pressure the Euro lower, helping to drive relative value plays in the DAX that see component valuations rise over time. Added monetary stimulus will also contribute to momentum higher in the index, but that depends largely on how conditions evolve across the Euro Area over the medium-term. While technical indicators may be back bullishness going forward, attention must be paid to the evolving fundamental conditions which are also reflected by the DAX 30.
The fluid conditions across the Euro Area continue to spotlight the uneven recovery of economic fundamentals despite the extreme amount of accommodation already in place.
Germany in particular has benefited from the conditions as a result of increased competitiveness. However, despite the bullishness on the economy relative to other European peers, certain metrics remain in troubling territory.
This is widely reflected by the overwhelmingly negative performance of the DAX 30 components over the last 52-weeks and since the outset of 2016.
Even with a growing emphasis on fighting deflation and improving trade, the German economy remains unbalanced, contributing to an uncertain outlook for the DAX 30. Although the index is still in the process of rebounding from February lows, without a positive backdrop to support further gains, the longer-term downtrend may resume.
Macro support
On the whole, Germany has been a strong performer from a purely fundamental perspective over the years.
Severe underperformance of the German banking sector has been dragging on the index, specifically Deutsche Bank's -33.36% tumble
Falling unemployment and fiscal discipline have been hallmarks of the policies driving sustained growth in the region in spite of troubling external conditions. Helping the positive momentum has been a supportive monetary policy environment, especially with the nation on the cusp of deflation with headline annualized inflation last printing at 0.10%.
While a number of data points that have lent themselves towards optimism in German stocks, namely better trade, there still is substantial cause for concern.
From purely a charting perspective the German DAX remains in an uptrend in the medium-term despite remaining in a longer-term downtrend that has been intact for the better part of the last year.
Even after climbing above the 10000 psychological level, a reversal will not be confirmed until the index is able to overcome resistance sitting firmly at 11350. There are several factors contributing to the near-term bullish bias that might enable the DAX 30 to reach these levels, namely the 50-day moving average which is acting as support at the moment.
Although the 200-day moving average remains in a downward trend, acting as resistance against any upside momentum, should this level be broken to the upside by the 50-day moving average and DAX 30 price action, it could signal another leg higher in the index.
Outside of the moving averages, the other bullish indication is the upward trending equidistant channel that has been forming since February.
The channel has three points of contact touching both the upper and lower channel lines, suggesting that ideal positions initiated at the lower channel line should target the upper channel line for an exit. However, if the DAX 30 should fall below the lower channel line, a candlestick close below this level would indicate a channel-based breakout to the downside to be confirmed by higher than average trading volumes and heightened directional momentum.
Upcoming factors that could shift DAX momentum
Looking forward for the DAX 30, there are several factors that could help or harm the ongoing climb in the index. The main items to watch over the coming sessions is the inflation and GDP data coming out on Friday.
Should the annualized CPI print in deflationary territory at -0.10% as is currently forecast by consensus, it could be a sign of worsening domestic conditions.
Additionally, preliminary GDP is anticipated to decelerate to 1.50% expansion on an annualized basis, adding to potential factors stacking up against the DAX.
However, despite tapering in growth, the preliminary first quarter GDP projection is for 0.60% growth, a nice improvement from the 0.30% reported in the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, the tailwinds from monetary policy which remain widely supportive of the index climbing further from current levels. Thanks to the balance sheet expansion undertaken by the European Central Bank, excess cash is likely to find its way towards risk assets especially with interest rates in negative territory.
The expansionary efforts will also continue to pressure the Euro lower, helping to drive relative value plays in the DAX that see component valuations rise over time. Added monetary stimulus will also contribute to momentum higher in the index, but that depends largely on how conditions evolve across the Euro Area over the medium-term. While technical indicators may be back bullishness going forward, attention must be paid to the evolving fundamental conditions which are also reflected by the DAX 30.
Idan is the VP trading for anyoption.com. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience trading and has a vast knowledge of the financial markets. An expert in the binary options hedging field - Idan provides insights, guidance and coordination in business planning, risk management and technology strategies. He holds a BA in Economics Management and is now busy finishing his MBA in Finance. Idan is the VP trading for anyoption.com. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience and a vast knowledge of the financial markets. An expert in the binary options hedging field - Idan provides insights, guidance and coordination in business planning, risk management and technology strategies. He holds a BA in Economics Management and is now busy finishing his MBA in Finance.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
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▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔