WTI crude oil settled at $112.41 per barrel on Monday, April 7, 2026, while Brent closed at $109.77, as President Trump's Tuesday night ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept the market on edge. Both benchmarks have nearly doubled since January, when WTI traded below $58, making this the steepest year-to-date rally since 2008.

Six months ago, the oil price prediction consensus centered on oversupply and sub-$60 crude. The effective closure of the Strait, through which 20% of global oil supply once flowed daily, has replaced that narrative entirely.

Goldman Sachs now calls it the largest supply shock in the history of the global crude market, and the question facing traders is no longer whether prices stay elevated, but how high they can go.

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Why Oil Prices Are Rising? Strait of Hormuz and the Tuesday Ultimatum

The war between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran, which began on February 28 with coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has now entered its sixth week with no resolution in sight. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday, April 8, at 8 PM ET to reopen the Strait or face strikes on every bridge and power plant in the country. Iran rejected Washington's ceasefire proposal and submitted its own 10-point plan, which includes a permanent end to hostilities and the lifting of sanctions, according to Axios.

The scale of supply destruction is historic. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels will be lost by the end of April, comprising approximately 600 million barrels of crude and 350 million barrels of refined products. Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a note to clients that the conflict lasting into deep April means the supply math is getting worse by the day. Rapidan Energy projects a total net loss of 630 million barrels of oil and products by the end of June.

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Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, noted that the continued surge comes as markets anticipate further escalation, which threatens structural disruption to crude oil supply chains originating in the region. He added that energy markets are bracing for a massive supply shock as the geopolitical theater enters the most dangerous phase of the war.

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to boost production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, but as Finance Magnates' analysis of the 74% three-week oil price surge from March 9 established, the theoretical increase is meaningless while the Strait remains closed and Gulf infrastructure sustains ongoing damage. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported significant drone damage to several operational facilities over the weekend. OPEC+ itself warned that repairing energy infrastructure attacked during the conflict is costly and time-consuming.

However, there are early signs of a partial thaw. Shipping data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed 8 tankers transited the Strait on Monday, up from fewer than 2 per day throughout March. That remains a fraction of prewar volumes, but represents the first measurable improvement since hostilities began.

Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade, noted that early signs of potential de-escalation have tempered supply concerns to a degree, pushing prices down from intraday highs. But he cautioned that underlying conditions remain fragile and vessel transit through the Strait remains limited.

Oil Technical Analysis: WTI Oil Price Chart at 2022 War Levels

My chart shows WTI crude has been trading since early March within a volatility channel that mirrors the price range observed during the 2022 Ukraine war spike. Based on my over 15 years of experience as an analyst and trader, this is a structurally significant pattern.

The resistance zone at $114-$115 per barrel forms the upper boundary of the current consolidation. WTI has tested this area for three consecutive sessions without a decisive breakout. In 2022, this same price zone marked the beginning of the final push toward the $130 intraday high. A sustained close above $115 would suggest the market is repricing for a prolonged disruption scenario rather than a near-term resolution.

The lower boundary sits at approximately $84 per barrel, corresponding to the session lows from early March that were subsequently retested in late March. This level coincides with the 50-day exponential moving average, reinforcing its importance as dynamic support. As the Finance Magnates coverage of the initial Strait of Hormuz closure from March 2 documented, the oil price gap that opened between $66 and $84 during the first week of the conflict remains partially unfilled.

Oil WTI price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com

The structural dividing line between a bullish and bearish WTI outlook sits near $70 per barrel, where the 200-day moving average currently runs. This level also intersects with the bullish gap from the February-March 2022 Ukraine war breakout. A retreat below the 200 MA would require either a ceasefire or a resolution far more comprehensive than what is currently on the table.

My directional bias remains cautiously bullish as long as price holds above the 50 EMA at $84. A breakout above $115 targets $130 and potentially higher. However, the outcome depends less on technical patterns and more on whether the current crisis produces a diplomatic resolution or an escalation.

As I noted in previous Finance Magnates oil market coverage, the fundamentals shifted the oil narrative from oversupply to supply crisis in under five weeks, and they can shift it back just as quickly.

Oil Price Prediction 2026: What Banks and Analysts Forecast

The institutional consensus has undergone a dramatic revision since February. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs projected WTI averaging $53 per barrel in 2026. That forecast now looks like it belongs to a different era.

Goldman Sachs, led by commodities analyst Daan Struyven, raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $85 per barrel on March 22, up from $77, with the WTI forecast lifted to $79 from $72. The bank's model assumes roughly six weeks of severely restricted Hormuz flows. For Q4 2026, Goldman's base case sits at $71 Brent and $67 WTI, but its risk scenario, which assumes a two-month disruption, pushes Q4 Brent to $93. Goldman has flagged a peak scenario at $135 per barrel if the market needs to force demand destruction to offset six months of restricted supply.

JPMorgan issued the most aggressive warning among major banks. The bank's commodities team cautioned that Brent could overshoot toward $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut into mid-May. As the Finance Magnates analysis of $200 oil scenarios from March 30 outlined, Macquarie and Wood Mackenzie have sketched similar upside ranges, though the $200 level remains an extreme tail risk rather than a base case.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, whose updated Short-Term Energy Outlook was due for release on April 7, projected in its March report that Brent would remain above $95 over the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 and toward $70 by year-end. That forecast assumes the Strait gradually reopens, a condition that has yet to materialize.

The futures curve tells its own story. As oil traders increasingly turn to prediction markets for forward signals, the Brent forward curve prices a decline to $90 by August and below $80 by December, indicating the market's base expectation remains that the disruption is temporary.

FAQ

How high can oil prices go in 2026?

JPMorgan warns Brent crude could overshoot toward $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed into mid-May. Goldman Sachs has flagged an extreme peak scenario at $135 per barrel. WTI crude settled at $112.41 on April 7, 2026, up roughly 96% year-to-date. The outcome depends primarily on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict.

Why are oil prices rising so fast in 2026?

The US-Israeli war on Iran, which began February 28, 2026, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off approximately 20% of global seaborne oil supply. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and products will be lost by end of April. This represents the largest supply disruption in the history of the global crude market, according to Goldman Sachs.

Will oil prices go down in 2026?

The EIA projects Brent falling below $80 per barrel by Q3 and toward $70 by year-end, assuming the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. Goldman Sachs' Q4 2026 base case is $71 Brent and $67 WTI. A ceasefire deal between the US and Iran would likely trigger a rapid decline in crude prices, as the futures curve already prices Brent at $90 by August.

What happens to oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz reopens?

A full reopening of the Strait would remove the war premium currently embedded in crude prices. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs projected WTI averaging $53 in 2026. However, analysts caution that even after a ceasefire, infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supply normalization could take months, limiting the pace of any price decline.

What is the oil price prediction for the end of 2026?

Goldman Sachs' base case projects $71 Brent and $67 WTI by Q4 2026. Under a risk scenario where Hormuz disruptions last two months, Goldman sees Q4 Brent at $93. JPMorgan's pre-war outlook assumed Brent returning to the $60 range. The EIA forecasts approximately $70 Brent by December, contingent on resumed Strait flows and US production growth averaging 13.6 million barrels per day.