Gold prices tumbled over 2.5% on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, with silver falling by a steeper 4% margin, marking the weakest levels in 11 days as both metals test critical support zones following their brief recovery from the catastrophic January 31 selloff.

The yellow metal drew intraday lows at $4,858 before recovering slightly to trade at $4,911 per ounce, while silver crashed below $73 during Asian hours before stabilizing around $74. This renewed weakness comes despite ANZ Bank's upgraded forecast projecting gold will reach $5,800 per ounce in Q2 2026, up from their previous $5,400 target.

In this article, I explain why gold and silver are falling again, what ANZ's bullish forecast means for precious metals, and why Ron Paul's $20,000 gold price prediction remains intact despite extreme short-term volatility .

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Why Gold And Silver Are Going Down Today?

Recovery Tested After Historic Crash

February 17 marks a critical test for precious metals bulls. After staging a powerful recovery from the January 31 crash lows, gold and silver are retesting support levels that could determine whether the correction deepens or the bull market resumes.

Gold peaked at $5,608 on January 30, then crashed to $4,745 the next day before recovering to the $4,750-4,800 range by February 2. The metal traded as high as $5,120 on February 11, suggesting the worst was over. But Tuesday's selloff pushed gold back toward $4,850, down 2.6% intraday, raising questions about whether another leg down is imminent.

Gold's Current Price Action:

Current: $4,911 per ounce
Intraday low: $4,858 (Feb 17)
Recent high: $5,120 (Feb 11)
Key support: $4,850-4,600
Resistance: $5,000-5,100

Silver's Current Price Action:

Current: $74 per ounce
Intraday low: Under $73 (Feb 17)
Recent recovery high: $83 (Feb 2)
Key support: $70, then $55
Resistance: $80, then $100-120

Despite the renewed weakness, gold remains up 6.5% over the past month and a remarkable 67% year-over-year. Silver still shows monthly gains of 4% and annual returns exceeding 155%, underscoring that this remains a secular bull market experiencing violent corrections rather than a trend reversal.

Dilin Wu, Research Strategist at Pepperstone, notes: "If short-term bears dominate, the lower boundary of the February upward channel near $4,900, and further down at $4,640, may provide support. Conversely, a sustained break above $5,100 could open the way toward $5,180-$5,200, representing key resistance levels before challenging new highs."

Technical Analysis: Critical Support Tested

Gold's Chart Setup

Gold's price action on February 17 shows the metal falling 2.6% with intraday lows at $4,858 before recovering to trade slightly above $4,911 per ounce. The price is moving within a support zone between $4,850-$4,900, marked by the psychological $5,000 level above and critical support at $4,600 below.

According to my chart, the 50 exponential moving average (50 EMA) has been tested multiple times since the January 31 crash, with gold bouncing off this level on February 2 before rallying to $5,120 on February 11. Tuesday's weakness brings the metal back toward this critical technical level, which could determine the next directional move.

Why gold is going down today? Source: Tradingview.com

Key support levels include the current $4,850-4,900 zone, followed by $4,640 (identified by Pepperstone's Dilin Wu as highly important), and then the major support zone at $3,900-4,000 where the 200 EMA and November 2025 lows converge.

On the upside, resistance sits at $5,000-5,100, with a sustained break above that level potentially opening the path toward $5,180-5,200 before challenging the January 30 all-time high of $5,608. The trend remains officially bullish based on long-term moving average alignment, meaning any moves down to support should be treated as buying opportunities for those betting on a return to higher levels.

Silver's Volatile Pattern

Silver's chart shows even more dramatic swings. According to my technical analysis, the white metal is down over 4% on February 17, testing lows under $73 per ounce (11-day lows) before recovering slightly to trade around $74. Direct support sits at the round $70 level, while major support lies at $55 where the 200 EMA currently resides.

This $55 level coincides with historical highs from October 2024, making it a critical zone for bulls to defend if selling pressure intensifies. A break below $55 would signal bears have significantly shifted the balance of power on the chart.

Why silver is going down today? Source: Tradingview.com

Resistance for silver is found at $80 (the 50 EMA, which is positioned horizontally since late January), with the next barrier at the round $100 level and ultimately historical highs above $120 tested in late January. The long-term trend remains bullish based on the 200 EMA slope, meaning pullbacks to support zones should theoretically attract buyers looking to position for the next leg higher.

If Tuesday's session closes near current levels without further deterioration, silver will add another lower wick to recent price action, potentially forming a base from which to launch the next rally phase. But a close below $70 would raise concerns that another violent leg down could be in progress.

Gold Price Prediction: ANZ Raises Forecast to $5,800 Target for Q2 2026

While traders panic over daily price swings, ANZ Bank upgraded its gold forecast on February 13, projecting the metal will reach $5,800 per ounce in Q2 2026, up from the previous $5,400 target. This represents 18% upside from current levels and suggests the bank views recent weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a trend change.

ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes emphasized that "the rally is not yet mature enough to reverse anytime soon." They argue the backdrop for gold in 2026 differs fundamentally from previous peak periods in 1980 and 2013.

The key differences: easy U.S. monetary policy, escalating geopolitical tensions, ongoing policy uncertainty, and a weakening dollar create an environment where appetite for diversification is intensifying. Unlike past peaks that ended in sustained bear markets, current structural factors suggest dips should be bought.

"We believe gold remains an insurance asset against a plethora of uncertainties, and the recent correction presents an opportunity for fresh investment," the ANZ team wrote. They noted that market focus is increasingly turning to potential tariff effects, which haven't yet shown up in economic or inflation data but pose significant risks.

In the meantime, Congressman and Liberty Report host Ron Paul maintains his ultra-bullish long-term forecast that many dismissed as extreme when first announced.

In a January 27 interview with The David Lin Report, just days before the crash, Paul warned: "The fiat monetary system is dying" and predicted gold could reach $20,000 or even $100,000 as the dollar collapses and trust in currency evaporates.

Gold and Silver Price Analysis FAQ

Why are gold and silver falling today?

Gold fell 2.6% to $4,911 and silver crashed 4% to $74 on February 17, 2026, testing recovery levels reached after the historic January 31 crash. The renewed weakness comes despite ANZ Bank raising its Q2 2026 gold forecast to $5,800, suggesting markets remain nervous about Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination and potential monetary policy tightening.

What is the gold price forecast for 2026?

ANZ Bank upgraded its gold price forecast to $5,800 per ounce for Q2 2026, up from the previous $5,400 target. The bank views recent corrections as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals, citing easy monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, ongoing uncertainty, and a weakening dollar as structural support factors that differ from previous peak periods in 1980 and 2013.

Will gold and silver continue falling?

Technical analysis shows gold testing critical support at $4,850-$4,900 with key levels at $4,640 (Pepperstone's Dilin Wu calls this "highly important") and $3,900-$4,000 (200 EMA zone). Silver is testing $70-$74 support with major support at $55. Central bank buying (755+ tonnes expected in 2026) provides a structural floor, while Ron Paul maintains $20,000-$100,000 long-term targets based on fiat system collapse thesis.

Is this a good time to buy gold and silver?

Both metals are testing support levels after violent corrections (gold from $5,608 to $4,850, silver from $122 to $74). ANZ characterizes this as an "opportunity for fresh investment" with $5,800 upside target. However, extreme volatility persists with multi-percent daily swings. Central bank buying at 755+ tonnes annually and industrial silver demand (680 million ounces) provide structural support, but bears could push prices lower if $4,600 gold and $70 silver break.