As Liberation Day approaches, America’s new economic doctrine kicks off with a bang. While most economists are in a panic some, like Owen Cass, are supportive. Reports are saying that Howard Lutnick might just be the fall guy if it all goes wrong.

What Is Liberation Day?

Mark your calendars and cancel your overseas Zoom calls — today, April 2, is Liberation Day, the newest entry in America’s long history of declaring freedom from things. This time, it’s global trade rules. President Trump, riding high on campaign energy and Wall Street noise, is positioning today as the start of a new American economic doctrine, built on the good ol’ fashioned foundations of tariffs, economic nationalism, and performative patriotism.

So, what is Liberation Day? It’s not just another MAGA-themed merch opportunity (although that’s coming). It’s the start of a sweeping tariff regime designed to “re-liberate” American industry from the cruel tyranny of imported goods — a plan critics say could set the global trade order on fire faster than you can say “Smoot-Hawley.”

As per our previous reporting, this is no one-off policy stunt. The tariffs are a calculated move aimed at resetting trade ties with China, Mexico, and even the EU, with tech and semiconductors in the crosshairs. This is protectionism rebranded, wrapped in fireworks, and served with a side of “America First” swagger.

What Time Is the Liberation Day Announcement?

For those of you wondering “what time is Liberation Day?”, set your alarms for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s when Trump is expected to hit “send” on a statement that may very well shift stock markets, realign trade flows, and ruin a few economists’ vacations.

The event, being held at the White House’s Rose Garden, is expected to be equal parts policy rollout and campaign rally. Expect red-white-and-blue stagecraft, angry digs at Biden, and maybe even a confetti cannon if Trump’s advisors don’t talk him out of it. But, we still don’t know what he’s going to say.

And if you're a trader? Strap in. Futures markets are already jumpy, with tech stocks especially vulnerable to a tariff onslaught targeting key components sourced from Asia.

(Some) Economists Say It’s a Good Thing, Actually

Enter Oren Cass, the intellectual spine of the “common good capitalism” movement and one of the few policy wonks still willing to endorse Trumpism with a straight face. Even Cass is wondering what’s to come, and he appears more than a little nervous. In his latest in Understanding America, Cass says, “I am broadly supportive of President Trump’s desire to reshape the global trading system, and especially enthusiastic about the quality of the team he has assembled (VP Vance, Rubio at State, Bessent at Treasury, Miran at CEA, Greer at USTR) and the sharp critiques and frameworks they have developed. But the rubber meets the road in the clarity of the administration’s communication about its plans and goals, and in the coherence of the policy agenda actually implemented, and there the first two months have left much to be desired.”

Cass supports the administration’s “three demands” approach to trade: require reciprocity, strengthen domestic supply chains, and punish bad actors (read: China). Cass’s take is that the tariffs will “rebalance” rather than destabilize. Critics, however, aren’t buying it — pointing out that similar policies in the Trump 1.0 era mostly just made microwaves more expensive.

But hey, why let past failures ruin a great branding opportunity?

A Chorus of Doubt

If Cass is wary, other economists and bankers seem downright scared. Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession within the next year from 20% to 35%, attributing this heightened risk to the anticipated tariffs.​

Kara Reynolds, an economist at American University, emphasized that if both businesses and consumers become concerned and reduce their spending, it could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.​ Anne Villamil, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, broadly agreed with Reynolds, saying that a decline in business investment, potentially triggered by increased costs due to tariffs, could lead to a recession.​

And to top it off, Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University, pointed out that the existing chaos and uncertainty surrounding tariff policy are already affecting consumer confidence, which has declined to its lowest level since 2021.

Howard Lutnick: Hero or Human Shield?

If things go sideways — say, markets crash or Walmart shelves start looking like Soviet supermarkets — the administration may already have a designated scapegoat: Howard Lutnick.

Yes, that Howard Lutnick — the former Cantor Fitzgerald CEO, mega-donor, and friend of Trump. According to Politico, Lutnick has been positioning himself as the public-facing Wall Street liaison to the new trade order. He’s been making the rounds, talking up the need for “bold moves” and “economic self-determination.”

Behind the scenes, insiders say he’s also the most likely fall guy if Liberation Day turns into a flaming economic pile-up. One source was reported as saying, “I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him [Lutnick],” and that Lutnick is often in the Oval Office, “giving him [Trump] bad advice — pushing more aggressive tariffs”.

In fairness, Lutnick probably knows the risks. But when you play ball with Trump, you either walk away a kingmaker or a cautionary tale. The odds are about 50/50 — slightly worse if tariffs hit your portfolio.

The Big Picture: Economic Doctrine or Theatrical Detour?

Liberation Day may sound like a dystopian Netflix original, but its implications for global trade are very real. If Trump’s tariffs escalate into a full-scale trade war (again), expect retaliatory moves, export restrictions, and massive volatility across sectors — especially tech, agriculture, and automotive.

Meanwhile, economists are split. Some see this as a necessary shock to a bloated, dependency-ridden trade system. Others call it “economic cosplay” that risks alienating allies and tanking supply chains just when they were starting to stabilize.

But for now, all eyes are on 2:00 p.m. ET. Liberation is coming — whether the world wants it or not.