Tesla (TSLA) stock gained 3.8% yesterday (Monday) to close at $368.06 on Nasdaq, two days before the company reports third-quarter results. The close left the shares 65 cents below $368.71, the first of the resistance levels my daily chart puts in front of any run toward $432 and $451.
The gain came as technology stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq Composite up more than 1%. Talk of a tie-up with SpaceX also kept circulating after Tesla unveiled its Roadster at a SpaceX test site in Texas last Thursday.
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Why Is Tesla Stock Going Up?
Tesla filed its proxy statement on Monday for its December 3 annual meeting, where shareholders will vote on re-electing Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel to the board.
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Barclays analyst Dan Levy sees a possible SpaceX merger announcement before that meeting, in an all-stock deal in which SpaceX would acquire Tesla, Yahoo Finance reported. The outlet added that the rally on its own does not show that talks are underway.
The company also gave bulls a number earlier this month. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, 2.1% fewer than a year earlier but above the 469,000 that analysts expected, according to Visible Alpha consensus data.
How High Can Tesla Stock Go?
On my daily chart, Tesla has traded for more than a year in a wide range between the $297.48 floor and the record high near $499 it set in December 2025. The sell-off after second-quarter results in July took the stock back to that floor, and the rebound since then has added nearly 24%.
That rebound now runs into a cluster of resistance. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits at $377.19, between $368.71, the late May 2025 peak, and $382.73, where the November 2025 lows are.
The whole move since August also sits inside a rising channel, and the price has not broken out of it yet. After a rebound of this size, I would expect some holders to take profits into that resistance.
If buyers clear the band with a daily close above $382.73, my next targets are $432.65, the July high, and $451.72, the May peak. That is 13% and 18% above the top of the band, or about 18% and 23% above Monday's close.
The band includes the level I flagged after Tesla's July results, when I called $368.42 the line the stock had to reclaim. Tesla hit my $336.50 target and kept falling to the $297 floor before the rebound brought it back to the same line.
Back in May 2025, my golden-cross analysis pointed toward the all-time high area, then near $475. The stock went on to set its record in December 2025.
| Scenario | Confirmation | Target | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout | Daily close above $382.73 | $432.65, then $451.72 | Daily close back below $368.71 |
| Rejection at resistance | No close above $382.73, then a daily close below the 50-day EMA at $365.47 | April low at $336.74 | Daily close above $382.73 |
| Return to the range floor | Daily close below $336.74 | $297.48 | Recovery above $336.74 |
What Do Analysts Expect From Tesla's Q3 Earnings?
Tesla reports after the close tomorrow (Wednesday) and holds its webcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, according to its filing with the SEC. Visible Alpha consensus puts revenue at $28.04 billion, down 0.2% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings at 44 cents a share, down 11.8%.
Cash is the weaker spot. The same consensus has free cash flow at negative $4.09 billion and capital spending at $7.94 billion, up from $5.79 billion in the second quarter, as Tesla spends on AI, Cybercab and Optimus.
Analysts have been cutting rather than raising. Data show 18 downward and four upward earnings revisions over the past 90 days. The average price target of $397.83 is about 8% above Monday's close and below my first target. JPMorgan kept a Hold rating with a $415 target on October 16, and Cantor Fitzgerald a Buy with $485 on Monday.
What Would Break the Tesla Rebound?
For my scenario, the line is the top of the band at $382.73. A rejection there and a daily close below the 50-day EMA at $365.47 would point back to $336.74, the April low, with the range floor at $297.48 below it.
