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Bond Traders Give Fed Green Light to Lift Rates as Soon as June
Bond Traders Give Fed Green Light to Lift Rates as Soon as June
by
Bloomberg News
The bond market is boosting its bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in June as stocks and oil...
The bond market is boosting its bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in June as stocks and oil rally.
After Treasury 10-year notes recorded a third straight weekly decline, traders now see the odds of a June rate hike at about a coin flip, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up from a 45 percent chance assigned March 10 and odds below 10 percent seen a month ago. Since 1994, the Fed hasn’t raised rates unless the futures market had priced in at least 60 percent of the move the day before, Bank of America interest-rate strategist Mark Cabana wrote in a March 11 note.
“It seems like the market is within in the range” that “the Fed would be comfortable with” for a June increase, Cabana said by phone from New York.
There’s almost no market expectation for the Fed to raise rates at its next policy-setting meeting March 15-16, with the futures market implying a 4 percent chance, assuming the fed funds effective rate averages 0.625 percent after the next hike. For the central bank’s June meeting, though, the market-implied probability rose to 50 percent Friday as gains in stocks and crude prices dented demand for Treasuries and other havens.
Benchmark 10-year note yields rose 11 basis points last week, or 0.11 percentage point, to 1.98 percent as of 5 p.m. New York time Friday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data, the highest on a closing basis since Jan. 27. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in February 2026 fell 31/32, or $9.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 96 25/32.
The Bank of America analysts found that the amount of Fed tightening has been “closely linked” to financial conditions since the start of 2015, and the market seems to have noticed. On Feb. 11, the 2016 low for stocks, Treasury yields and the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, the futures-implied probability of a Fed hike this year was 11 percent. By Friday, the probability had climbed to 77 percent.
That might eventually pose a challenge for both traders and U.S. central-bank officials, said Cabana.
“At some point, they’re going to want to break that link, and that could be a surprise to the market and put them in a bit of a tight spot,” he said.
Improving U.S. economic data in recent weeks have boosted the outlook for inflation and economic growth. Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., which measures the strength of data relative to analysts forecasts, climbed to minus 9.3 Friday, the highest closing level since November. While still below zero, which shows data releases have been undershooting predictions, the gauge has risen from an eight-month low of minus 55.7 reached on Feb. 4.
As data and financial conditions improve, Treasuries have been the worst performers after Canadian bonds in the past month among global sovereign debt, based on Bloomberg World Bond Indexes, which track 26 nations. U.S. debt has lost 1.2 percent, and Canadian debt has handed investors a 1.7 percent loss.
Even so, more losses could be in store, according to Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer for global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co. He said the market is still underrating U.S. economic strength and the Fed’s path.
“The market may be underestimating the fact that the U.S. economy is doing pretty well, and that the Fed is probably going to go this year,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Friday.
The U.S. will sell $11 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities on March 17.
--With assistance from Wes Goodman and Anooja Debnath To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Scaggs in New York at ascaggs@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net, Michael Aneiro
The bond market is boosting its bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in June as stocks and oil rally.
After Treasury 10-year notes recorded a third straight weekly decline, traders now see the odds of a June rate hike at about a coin flip, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up from a 45 percent chance assigned March 10 and odds below 10 percent seen a month ago. Since 1994, the Fed hasn’t raised rates unless the futures market had priced in at least 60 percent of the move the day before, Bank of America interest-rate strategist Mark Cabana wrote in a March 11 note.
“It seems like the market is within in the range” that “the Fed would be comfortable with” for a June increase, Cabana said by phone from New York.
There’s almost no market expectation for the Fed to raise rates at its next policy-setting meeting March 15-16, with the futures market implying a 4 percent chance, assuming the fed funds effective rate averages 0.625 percent after the next hike. For the central bank’s June meeting, though, the market-implied probability rose to 50 percent Friday as gains in stocks and crude prices dented demand for Treasuries and other havens.
Benchmark 10-year note yields rose 11 basis points last week, or 0.11 percentage point, to 1.98 percent as of 5 p.m. New York time Friday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data, the highest on a closing basis since Jan. 27. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in February 2026 fell 31/32, or $9.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 96 25/32.
The Bank of America analysts found that the amount of Fed tightening has been “closely linked” to financial conditions since the start of 2015, and the market seems to have noticed. On Feb. 11, the 2016 low for stocks, Treasury yields and the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, the futures-implied probability of a Fed hike this year was 11 percent. By Friday, the probability had climbed to 77 percent.
That might eventually pose a challenge for both traders and U.S. central-bank officials, said Cabana.
“At some point, they’re going to want to break that link, and that could be a surprise to the market and put them in a bit of a tight spot,” he said.
Improving U.S. economic data in recent weeks have boosted the outlook for inflation and economic growth. Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., which measures the strength of data relative to analysts forecasts, climbed to minus 9.3 Friday, the highest closing level since November. While still below zero, which shows data releases have been undershooting predictions, the gauge has risen from an eight-month low of minus 55.7 reached on Feb. 4.
As data and financial conditions improve, Treasuries have been the worst performers after Canadian bonds in the past month among global sovereign debt, based on Bloomberg World Bond Indexes, which track 26 nations. U.S. debt has lost 1.2 percent, and Canadian debt has handed investors a 1.7 percent loss.
Even so, more losses could be in store, according to Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer for global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co. He said the market is still underrating U.S. economic strength and the Fed’s path.
“The market may be underestimating the fact that the U.S. economy is doing pretty well, and that the Fed is probably going to go this year,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Friday.
The U.S. will sell $11 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities on March 17.
--With assistance from Wes Goodman and Anooja Debnath To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Scaggs in New York at ascaggs@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net, Michael Aneiro
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔