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Gold May Tumble, But Love for Newcrest Bonds Seen Here to Stay
Gold May Tumble, But Love for Newcrest Bonds Seen Here to Stay
by
Bloomberg News
Newcrest Mining Ltd. bondholders are reaping the rewards of the surge in gold that has the metal on course...
Newcrest Mining Ltd. bondholders are reaping the rewards of the surge in gold that has the metal on course for its best quarterly gain in almost 30 years. They could keep on prospering even if prices make an expected retreat.
Dollar debt from Australia’s biggest gold producer is poised to return 14 percent this quarter, the most since at least 2012, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. While the precious metal this month climbed to a one-year high of $1,284.64 an ounce, the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts is for gold to drop to $1,150 by the end of 2016.
“Even if gold prices, whether in U.S. dollars or Australian dollars, come off a bit, it shouldn’t affect the overall story too much,” Anthony Ip, a credit sector specialist at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney, said by phone. With average production costs of $770 an ounce in the six months to Dec. 31, lower prices wouldn’t “materially change the deleveraging story, and the free cash flow story that’s occurring,” he said.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,228.14 an ounce as of 1 p.m. on Thursday in Sydney, equating to A$1,604.57. The price in Australian dollar terms reached a four-year high of A$1,778.65 on Feb. 11, although an appreciation of the local currency since then has raised costs and eroded some benefits for suppliers in the country, the world’s largest gold producer after China.
Newcrest declined to comment on the performance of its notes. The producer, with mines in Australia, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and the Ivory Coast, trimmed costs in the second half of 2015 by 5 percent from the same period a year earlier, boosted production and outlined a potential lower-cost expansion plan at Lihir, its largest mine.
The producer has also taken advantage of gold’s almost 16 percent leap in 2016 to add its first hedging on the metal in eight years to cover some production at its higher cost Telfer operation in Western Australia.
“Looking ahead and putting the gold price to one side, there’s a relative value argument to make here,” Ip said. “It still looks quite cheap.”
The company’s Lihir mine in particular has had trouble with maintaining a consistent operating performance in the past, according to Michael Bush, a Melbourne-based credit strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd.
“They’ve done very well over the last year, absolutely, but they’ll need to continue that performance to convince the market that the operation, and particularly the mill, has properly been turned around,” he said.
While Moody’s has issued downgrades to mining competitors including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. this year amid a collapse in the prices of other metals and materials, it affirmed Newcrest’s Baa3 rating this month after placing it under review for a possible cut in January.
The rebound in gold prices is also helping Newcrest’s fellow Melbourne-based miner St. Barbara Ltd., which this week had its credit rating raised one level to B by Standard & Poor’s amid an improvement in operating performance.
“For the gold miners, the important thing to understand is that they’ve actually gone through a lot of the restructuring, assets sales and removal of costs,” said Citigroup’s Ip. “They started doing that a lot earlier than some of the other mining companies, because you’ve had a three- or four-year period of gold prices dropping.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Benjamin Purvis in Sydney at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, David Stringer in Melbourne at dstringer3@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrew Monahan at amonahan@bloomberg.net, Jason Rogers at jrogers73@bloomberg.net, Sandy Hendry at shendry@bloomberg.net, Ken McCallum, Keith Gosman
Newcrest Mining Ltd. bondholders are reaping the rewards of the surge in gold that has the metal on course for its best quarterly gain in almost 30 years. They could keep on prospering even if prices make an expected retreat.
Dollar debt from Australia’s biggest gold producer is poised to return 14 percent this quarter, the most since at least 2012, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. While the precious metal this month climbed to a one-year high of $1,284.64 an ounce, the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts is for gold to drop to $1,150 by the end of 2016.
“Even if gold prices, whether in U.S. dollars or Australian dollars, come off a bit, it shouldn’t affect the overall story too much,” Anthony Ip, a credit sector specialist at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney, said by phone. With average production costs of $770 an ounce in the six months to Dec. 31, lower prices wouldn’t “materially change the deleveraging story, and the free cash flow story that’s occurring,” he said.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,228.14 an ounce as of 1 p.m. on Thursday in Sydney, equating to A$1,604.57. The price in Australian dollar terms reached a four-year high of A$1,778.65 on Feb. 11, although an appreciation of the local currency since then has raised costs and eroded some benefits for suppliers in the country, the world’s largest gold producer after China.
Newcrest declined to comment on the performance of its notes. The producer, with mines in Australia, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and the Ivory Coast, trimmed costs in the second half of 2015 by 5 percent from the same period a year earlier, boosted production and outlined a potential lower-cost expansion plan at Lihir, its largest mine.
The producer has also taken advantage of gold’s almost 16 percent leap in 2016 to add its first hedging on the metal in eight years to cover some production at its higher cost Telfer operation in Western Australia.
“Looking ahead and putting the gold price to one side, there’s a relative value argument to make here,” Ip said. “It still looks quite cheap.”
The company’s Lihir mine in particular has had trouble with maintaining a consistent operating performance in the past, according to Michael Bush, a Melbourne-based credit strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd.
“They’ve done very well over the last year, absolutely, but they’ll need to continue that performance to convince the market that the operation, and particularly the mill, has properly been turned around,” he said.
While Moody’s has issued downgrades to mining competitors including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. this year amid a collapse in the prices of other metals and materials, it affirmed Newcrest’s Baa3 rating this month after placing it under review for a possible cut in January.
The rebound in gold prices is also helping Newcrest’s fellow Melbourne-based miner St. Barbara Ltd., which this week had its credit rating raised one level to B by Standard & Poor’s amid an improvement in operating performance.
“For the gold miners, the important thing to understand is that they’ve actually gone through a lot of the restructuring, assets sales and removal of costs,” said Citigroup’s Ip. “They started doing that a lot earlier than some of the other mining companies, because you’ve had a three- or four-year period of gold prices dropping.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Benjamin Purvis in Sydney at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, David Stringer in Melbourne at dstringer3@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrew Monahan at amonahan@bloomberg.net, Jason Rogers at jrogers73@bloomberg.net, Sandy Hendry at shendry@bloomberg.net, Ken McCallum, Keith Gosman
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FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
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▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa