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Federal Reserve Stays on Course Despite Tweaking Its Policy Road Map
Federal Reserve Stays on Course Despite Tweaking Its Policy Road Map
Thursday,18/09/2014|03:54GMTby
George Tchetvertakov
With QE tapering and policy normalization drawing closer, the Fed's latest FOMC meeting reveals several policy tweaks, a severely dovish bias and still a far from unanimous consensus on future policy
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, reduce asset purchases by $10bn and a general policy to remain on the course already set by the central bank. In essence, the contents of this week's Fed meeting was largely expected although accompanying data and commentary provide an insight into the Fed's future actions.
From Then to Now
In her iconic appearance at Jackson Hole in August, Janet Yellen emphasized employment conditions being paramount in the Fed's road map for normalizing monetary policy. With positive indicators in the form of GDP, jobless claims and a falling unemployment rate helping the Fed to justify tapering, Ms. Yellen said she was "surprised by the economy's strength," in August this year.
However, at this month's FOMC meeting, Yellen made two remarks on labor market developments that could be considered dovish upon reinterpretation at a future date. Firstly, Ms. Yellen stated, "The slow increase in wages was indicative of labor market slack." Secondly, she said that there was a "meaningful cyclical shortfall in participation." Both factors are rather macroeconomic and would take years to rectify.
For the first time, the central bank released policy makers’ predictions for rates in 2017. Most Fed officials (14 out of 17), expect to start raising short-term interest rates from near zero in 2015, according to the forecasts released. According to the Fed's statistics, most officials see short-term rates above 3% – and somewhere near what officials consider the long-run normal rate – around three years from now. The new projections show officials expect their benchmark short-term rate, the federal funds rate, to be between 1.25% and 1.50% in late 2015 and between 2.75% and 3.0% in late 2016.
Fed Member Projections for Future Interest Rates | Source: Federal Reserve
The Fed slashed its 2015 GDP growth forecast range down to 2.6%-3.0% in September, down from 3.0% to 3.2% in June.
It's worth remembering that in January 2012, the Fed's 2014 growth forecast was in the range of 3.7%-4.0%. Now, that forecast is 2.0%-2.2%. The actual figure will only be known in 2015, and if it meets the forecast expectations, it will be the first time a Fed growth forecast has been accurate.
With Tapering Nearly Done, What Happens to Existing Purchased Assets?
The Fed's balance sheet is now $4.4 Trillion - 4 times larger than in 2008. The Fed insists it is committed to reducing the balance to a more normal size but how it plans to do that has changed. In yesterday's statement, the Fed formally announced it does not plan to sell any of its assets, a complete U-turn on the plans that were presented at the launch of all QE phases.
In a revised approach, the Fed said it will eventually stop reinvesting maturing securities and let them runoff. However, the central bank claims this process will not start only until after benchmark interest rates have risen. "The Committee has concluded that some aspects of the eventual normalization process will likely differ from those specified earlier," according to an official press release. "The Committee currently does not anticipate selling agency mortgage-backed securities as part of the normalization process, although limited sales might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings."
“The decisions the committee makes about what is the appropriate time to raise its target for the federal funds rate will be data dependent.” Adding, “There is no mechanical interpretation of the time period.” said Ms. Yellen when asked about the likely timing of future rate increases.
The Fed also announced that it will tweak its own normalization policy in order for Fed exit policy to be more effective. Instead of focusing on base interest rate banks use to lend to each other, the Fed plans to target the level of interest received by banks for capital deposited at the Fed. Additionally, the Fed wants to introduce a rate at which non-bank financial institutions can deposit capital at the Fed at a slightly lower level than the base interest rate set by the Fed.
Market Reaction
Equity markets were volatile during the time of the press conference but overall Fed comments were taken positively. The S&P 500 rose above 2,000 to close within reach of its all-time high, while the Dow consolidated above 17,000. The U.S dollar reacted positively, appreciating across the board against all other currencies. The AUD/USD rate in particular suffered extensive declines before and after the press conference.
Dissenters
Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher joined his Philadelphia counterpart Charles Plosser in dissenting against the Fed’s decision.Both cited the guidance on "considerable time" as overstating the amount of time the Fed has, and given their generally hawkish stance, their dissent was not unexpected.
Federal Reserve Member Stances Source: Thomson Reuters
Related News
This week sees the resolution of the Scottish independence saga and the introduction of a new Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) in Europe. Both of these issues have dominated market attention and price volatility more so than the Fed and this is where investor attention is focusing this Thursday and Friday.
A Scottish 'No' vote is likely to be GBP positive although a 'Yes' vote is unlikely to weaken GBP much further considering the downside price action already seen over the past 3 weeks. The event risk is to the upside. EUR/GBP will be a volatile currency pair over the next two days.
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, reduce asset purchases by $10bn and a general policy to remain on the course already set by the central bank. In essence, the contents of this week's Fed meeting was largely expected although accompanying data and commentary provide an insight into the Fed's future actions.
From Then to Now
In her iconic appearance at Jackson Hole in August, Janet Yellen emphasized employment conditions being paramount in the Fed's road map for normalizing monetary policy. With positive indicators in the form of GDP, jobless claims and a falling unemployment rate helping the Fed to justify tapering, Ms. Yellen said she was "surprised by the economy's strength," in August this year.
However, at this month's FOMC meeting, Yellen made two remarks on labor market developments that could be considered dovish upon reinterpretation at a future date. Firstly, Ms. Yellen stated, "The slow increase in wages was indicative of labor market slack." Secondly, she said that there was a "meaningful cyclical shortfall in participation." Both factors are rather macroeconomic and would take years to rectify.
For the first time, the central bank released policy makers’ predictions for rates in 2017. Most Fed officials (14 out of 17), expect to start raising short-term interest rates from near zero in 2015, according to the forecasts released. According to the Fed's statistics, most officials see short-term rates above 3% – and somewhere near what officials consider the long-run normal rate – around three years from now. The new projections show officials expect their benchmark short-term rate, the federal funds rate, to be between 1.25% and 1.50% in late 2015 and between 2.75% and 3.0% in late 2016.
Fed Member Projections for Future Interest Rates | Source: Federal Reserve
The Fed slashed its 2015 GDP growth forecast range down to 2.6%-3.0% in September, down from 3.0% to 3.2% in June.
It's worth remembering that in January 2012, the Fed's 2014 growth forecast was in the range of 3.7%-4.0%. Now, that forecast is 2.0%-2.2%. The actual figure will only be known in 2015, and if it meets the forecast expectations, it will be the first time a Fed growth forecast has been accurate.
With Tapering Nearly Done, What Happens to Existing Purchased Assets?
The Fed's balance sheet is now $4.4 Trillion - 4 times larger than in 2008. The Fed insists it is committed to reducing the balance to a more normal size but how it plans to do that has changed. In yesterday's statement, the Fed formally announced it does not plan to sell any of its assets, a complete U-turn on the plans that were presented at the launch of all QE phases.
In a revised approach, the Fed said it will eventually stop reinvesting maturing securities and let them runoff. However, the central bank claims this process will not start only until after benchmark interest rates have risen. "The Committee has concluded that some aspects of the eventual normalization process will likely differ from those specified earlier," according to an official press release. "The Committee currently does not anticipate selling agency mortgage-backed securities as part of the normalization process, although limited sales might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings."
“The decisions the committee makes about what is the appropriate time to raise its target for the federal funds rate will be data dependent.” Adding, “There is no mechanical interpretation of the time period.” said Ms. Yellen when asked about the likely timing of future rate increases.
The Fed also announced that it will tweak its own normalization policy in order for Fed exit policy to be more effective. Instead of focusing on base interest rate banks use to lend to each other, the Fed plans to target the level of interest received by banks for capital deposited at the Fed. Additionally, the Fed wants to introduce a rate at which non-bank financial institutions can deposit capital at the Fed at a slightly lower level than the base interest rate set by the Fed.
Market Reaction
Equity markets were volatile during the time of the press conference but overall Fed comments were taken positively. The S&P 500 rose above 2,000 to close within reach of its all-time high, while the Dow consolidated above 17,000. The U.S dollar reacted positively, appreciating across the board against all other currencies. The AUD/USD rate in particular suffered extensive declines before and after the press conference.
Dissenters
Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher joined his Philadelphia counterpart Charles Plosser in dissenting against the Fed’s decision.Both cited the guidance on "considerable time" as overstating the amount of time the Fed has, and given their generally hawkish stance, their dissent was not unexpected.
Federal Reserve Member Stances Source: Thomson Reuters
Related News
This week sees the resolution of the Scottish independence saga and the introduction of a new Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) in Europe. Both of these issues have dominated market attention and price volatility more so than the Fed and this is where investor attention is focusing this Thursday and Friday.
A Scottish 'No' vote is likely to be GBP positive although a 'Yes' vote is unlikely to weaken GBP much further considering the downside price action already seen over the past 3 weeks. The event risk is to the upside. EUR/GBP will be a volatile currency pair over the next two days.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
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🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24