Robinhood has moved into direct competition with traditional sportsbooks by expanding its prediction markets with new parlay-style contracts tied to NFL games.
The launch signals a deeper push into event-based trading and marks the segment’s transition from an add-on product to a material revenue contributor.
What sets the business apart is its scale and user engagement. Analysts estimate Robinhood’s prediction markets division is tracking toward roughly $300 million in annual revenue.
The segment has also been cited as one of the factors supporting the company’s strong stock performance in 2025. According to Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev, Robinhood has identified a product that closely aligns with its retail user base.
Robinhood users are significantly more likely to engage with prediction markets than the general public, supporting higher activity levels and repeat participation. That dynamic is reflected in the platform’s trading data.
Since launching prediction market contracts in March, more than 9 billion contracts have traded on Robinhood, with over one million users participating. In the third quarter alone, trading volumes reached approximately 2.3 billion contracts. Activity accelerated further in the following months, rising to 2.5 billion contracts in October and exceeding 3 billion in November.
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From Financial Contracts to Sports-Linked Events
The latest expansion applies familiar sports-betting mechanics to regulated event contracts. Robinhood users can now trade preset combinations of NFL game outcomes, with custom combinations expected to launch in 2026. The platform has also introduced live contracts tied to individual player performance metrics, including passing yards and points scored.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s general manager of futures and international, said the company views prediction markets as a durable part of its product strategy, citing sustained customer demand.
Beyond sports, Robinhood is exploring ways to link contracts across multiple event categories, potentially allowing users to combine outcomes tied to economic data, climate-related events, or political developments.
The expansion has also attracted regulatory scrutiny. Earlier this year, state regulators in Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders to several prediction market platforms, including Robinhood, arguing that sports-linked event contracts resembled unlicensed sports betting under state law.
The episode highlighted ongoing uncertainty around the boundary between state-level gaming rules and federally regulated event-based derivatives.
A Structural Shift Toward Event-Based Markets
Robinhood’s move reflects a wider shift across trading and derivatives markets. Traditional brokers, crypto firms, and exchange operators are increasingly treating event-based contracts as a distinct asset class rather than a niche product.
Plus500 recently entered the space as a clearing partner for CME Group and FanDuel’s event-based contracts platform, underlining growing institutional interest in the model.
Robinhood has signalled similar ambitions at the infrastructure level. The company has announced plans to operate a regulated futures and derivatives exchange alongside its consumer-facing platform, subject to regulatory approval. If realised, the move would further integrate prediction markets into Robinhood’s broader financial ecosystem.
Collectively, these developments suggest prediction markets are becoming a more established component of modern financial platforms rather than experimental offerings.
For Robinhood, the segment provides a meaningful additional revenue stream while extending user engagement beyond traditional asset classes. How far the model can scale, however, will depend on how regulatory frameworks evolve to accommodate event-based trading.
