US prediction market operator Kalshi and Brazilian brokerage XP Inc. have partnered to distribute event-based contracts tied to Brazilian economic developments, launching one of the first regulated prediction market products outside the US.
Under the arrangement, XP will manage local distribution, client relationships, and regulatory interactions in Brazil, while Kalshi will provide the trading technology, market design, and risk-management tools behind the event contracts.
Initially, the contracts will be available to Kalshi’s US investors and to a limited group of XP clients who hold international accounts. The products will be listed through XP’s US brokerage arm, allowing the firms to operate within existing regulatory frameworks.
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara declared the alliance a strategic milestone for the company’s international ambitions. “It makes sense for us to go through these international partners,” Lopes Lara said. “They already have the customers and the brand.”
Testing Demand Through Local Distribution
XP, Brazil’s largest brokerage by client base, has been expanding its product range beyond traditional equity trading. The partnership gives the firm access to event contracts linked to economic and political outcomes.
Lucas Rabechini, head of financial products at XP, said the payoff structures resemble derivative products that many of the firm’s clients already use.
Kalshi executives have long targeted Brazil as a prime expansion zone, drawn by its deep pool of active retail investors and intense appetite for macro-driven trades.
A Market Taking Shape
The collaboration comes as Brazilian financial institutions and regulators are beginning to examine the role of prediction markets in the country’s capital markets.
Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), has recently authorised the exchange operator B3 to explore prediction markets structured as derivatives rather than gambling products.
That approach mirrors the framework used in the United States, where Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange offering event-based contracts.
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For Kalshi, the XP partnership represents an early attempt to distribute its contracts outside the United States while remaining within existing regulatory structures.
Both the US and Brazil are exploring ways to place outcome-based contracts within traditional financial market frameworks rather than treating them as gambling products.
