Polymarket and Parcl are moving real estate into onchain prediction markets, creating a new venue where traders can speculate on the direction of housing prices without touching physical property or long-term mortgages.

The integration links Polymarket’s event-based markets with Parcl’s independently published, daily home price indices, reportedly enabling faster, rules-based settlement of contracts tied to major U.S. housing markets.

Under the partnership, Polymarket will list and operate a new suite of housing-focused prediction markets, while Parcl will supply the independent index data and final settlement values.

The indices, produced by Parcl Labs, track home prices in near real time and serve as the objective reference point for determining whether a market resolves higher or lower over a given period.

How the New Markets Will Work

According to the official announcement, the first wave of markets will focus on major U.S. cities, with contracts framed around the movement of Parcl’s city-level home price indices over set timeframes.

“Prediction markets work best when the data is clear, and the outcome can be verified without debate,” commented Matthew Modabber, the CMO of Polymarket. “Parcl’s daily housing indices give us a strong foundation to launch housing markets that settle transparently and consistently.”

Typical structures will ask whether a given city index finishes a month, quarter, or year up or down, or whether it crosses specific price thresholds by a stated date.

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Each market will link to a dedicated Parcl resolution page that shows the final settlement value, historical index context, and the methodology used to calculate the index.

By using published indices instead of discretionary judgments, the partners aim to reduce ambiguity around resolutions and to lower the risk of settlement disputes.

Keep reading: Polymarket Rolls Out U.S. App After CFTC Green Light, Starting With Sports Events

Real estate remains the world’s largest asset class, yet investors often need to navigate property-level complexity, leverage, and long holding periods to express even a simple view on price direction.

Why It Matters for Housing and Crypto

By combining daily index data with Polymarket’s event-market structure, the new product offers a more direct way to trade housing outcomes, with clear rules and public, auditable resolution data.

Parcl operates a real-time housing data and onchain real estate platform, delivering indices and analytics that allow users to gain long or short exposure to home price movements.

Meanwhile, Blockchain analyst defioasis.eth recently released data showing that roughly 70% of Polymarket’s 1.7 million trading addresses have realized losses, mirroring loss rates long observed among retail CFD traders in traditional markets.

The analysis covered Polymarket’s entire trading history through December 28, examining realized profit and loss for 1,733,785 unique addresses.

A separate report also showed that Polymarket is outperforming most decentralized finance projects in keeping users active. According to Dune and Keyrock, Polymarket maintained stronger month-to-month user activity than 85% of the platforms analyzed.