NMC/BTC Technical Analysis – 8th May 2014

Namecoin vs Bitcoin has been meandering between two Fibonacci levels over the past couple of weeks, and the way things are going, this may continue for a few days yet.

Let's take a closer look at the latest NMC/BTC Daily chart below:

I’ve performed the Fibonacci study from the low on the 13th of April at 0.00390, until the latest high, three days later on the 16th, at 0.00655, which represented a massive 66% increase.

Once the Fibs have been applied, it's immediately clear what's been happening; a picture paints a thousands words, I really don't need to delve too much into this, apart from to say, this current traversing of price between the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels is likely to continue, as long as we see the Accelerator Oscillator change green by the weekend, which I am optimistically anticipating.

Also, take a look at the Stochastic Oscillator, we can see how it's crossed over two times in a space of a few candles, without even getting close to the 20 (oversold) or 80 (overbought) levels within that time period - another sign of ranging. Perhaps the most telling of all indicators in this case are the Bollinger Bands, specifically their width; the fact that they've become narrower is an assertion of this period of consolidation, as all three bands approach a horizontal trajectory.

Now, we already know that price has tested the 78.6% Fib twice back in late April on consecutive days (27th and 28th), circled in blue, and as we can see on the chart above, price is very close to testing that level once again. Will it perform the same bouncing act as last time once it touches? We have to be careful here since the Parabolic SAR and the Awesome are still giving us bearish signs, and, as mentioned above, I'm waiting for the AC to change before I can place a threshold of confidence in such a bounce.