NMC/BTC Technical Analysis – 28th April 2014

Namecoin vs Bitcoin has been falling since the middle of the month, with barely a single bull candle since then. Will the trend continue?

Let's take a closer look at the current NMC/BTC Daily chart below (click to expand):

I've performed the Fibonacci study from the low on the 13th of April at 0.00390, until the latest high, three days later on the 16th, at 0.00655, which represented a massive 66% increase in not even half a week.

Since then, the sell off has been as consistent as the upsurge (marked with an orange arrow), if not as powerful, something quite rare, especially in currency markets, since there's usually some forms of retraces to be found, but in this case, specifically on the Daily timeframe, the bears have just been digging continuously, leaving no breathing space for the bulls.

The fact that so many key indicators, such as the Stochastic, the Accelerator and the Awesome Oscillators have all displayed similar consistent bear dynamics, is a testament to the nature of the trend. The Accelerator and the Awesome have been red for a number of days, without interruption, whilst the Stochastic has been heading down in a smooth manner.

Such has been the momentum of the sell off that it's taken the last major Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% at 0.00447, to put some brakes on NMC/BTC. Price has tested 78.6% twice, once yesterday and once today, marked in blue.

So the key question is, is this southern trend going to continue? For the short term - it's very likely we'll see some bulls attempting to muster some strength. I say this due to what I'm seeing on the H4 timeframe below (click to expand):

We can see how right now, the Stochastics are beginning to creep upwards from an extremely oversold position, with the AC and AO just turning green, but this could be a temporary respite seeing as though the bears have been going strong for a number of days now.