LTC/BTC Technical Analysis – 1st May 2014

Litecoin vs Bitcoin reached a week high of 0.0252 as I had predicted, but are we about to see a reversal?

During my previous technical analysis on LTC/BTC, I posted the following chart (click to expand):

When I explained that, "I am of the opinion price will eventually break (above) this level (0.0235) within the next few candles. If it doesn’t break by tonight, then we may enter a period of consolidation. But as I’ve explained, there is a decent possibility of the break occurring, since we also have the PSAR and the Accelerator Oscillator giving us bullish suggestions."

This proved to be the case, as we observe the latest LTC/BTC four hour chart below (click to expand):

For today's analysis, I've performed the Fibonacci study from the low of the week on Monday at 0.0228, until the high of the week (this morning) at 0.0252.

We can see how price has risen with, generally speaking, a smooth trajectory. Look at the Awesome Oscillator, there have been no interruptions, with consecutive green bars, likewise the Parabolic SAR, all the dots during the uptrend were below the candlesticks, telling us at the very least, this was a consistent trend, although not necessarily a powerful one. The latter attribute attained its proof by way of price action itself, namely the three candles marked 1,2,3 in blue - they all share one key characteristic, in that they all closed above the upper Bollinger band. Yet it wasn't long before we saw a reversal pattern in the works, via the candle circled in red, since this candle both opened and closed above the upper Bollinger line. And, as so often is the case, other technicals followed, such as the Accelerator Oscillator turning green, and the Stochastic Oscillator beginning to cross south from an overbought, northerly position.

Right now, price has settled at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, at 0.0246. The problem is, even though current technicals as discussed above are implying is a sell is imminent, including the now red Awesome, I'm not really sure, mainly due to what I'm seeing on the higher Daily timeframe, which is frankly, very conflicting. When such conflicts occur, it often means there's going to be some ranging, whilst the market seeks a clear direction.