Litecoin (LTC) has fallen hard in the past 24 hours, particularly in trade with Bitcoin (BTC). The LTC/BTC pair has established a new 2014 low of 0.0142 and more selling is possible.
As has been the recent trend throughout its lengthy decline, which can be traced to as far back as March, losses have been most pronounced when Bitcoin rises. Bitcoin is trading significantly higher today, gaining as much as 5% on BTC-e and now trading at $621. Conversely, LTC/USD has convincingly broken through the $9 level which had been offering at lost some hope of support. Six hours ago, it hit a new 2014 low of $8.65. It did unexpectedly spike immediately thereafter, also by 5% and in sync with BTC/USD’s rise. The rise was short-lived as BTC held onto its gains while LTC is gravitating back toward its newly-established lows.
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Litecoin investors will find this recent trend disturbing. In the “old era”, a 5% gain for Bitcoin often translated into a 10% gain or more for Litecoin. Correspondingly, the LTC/BTC pair would rise substantially. During the peak of November’s crypto craze, the pair traded as high as 0.052.
LTC/BTC has not traded above its 50-day moving average since April. The gap between its price and 50-day moving average has widened since then and now stands at 23%. The decline has been gradual and has not been accompanied with reliable indications for reversal, such as the successive establishment of increasingly higher peaks for a meaningful period.
Fundamentally, many altcoins seem to be falling out of favor with traders unless they bring something fresh and unique to the table. There are now hundreds of altcoins, literally a “dime a dozen” (at best). Despite Litecoin having come first to the game, it is struggling to stand out in the eyes of traders. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is gaining further acceptance with merchants every day; there is demand for its practical use. While Litecoin has gained some traction in this regard, it is nowhere near on the scale of Bitcoin.
Combining the fundamental and technical indications, one cannot rule out LTC/BTC reaching 0.01 by late August. There is little mid-term support standing in the way. The 0.01 level has not been visited since prior to the crypto markets’ meteoric rise in November. If reached, it could represent a meaningful pivot point.