BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 21st April 2014

Bitcoin started at 483 in the early hours of this morning, rising to a high of just over 500, but as I type, price has come back down to 483 again - there is a clear struggle between the bulls and the bears, each of them attempting to set the tone for this coming week.

Let's take a closer look at the latest BTC/USD chart below (click to expand). This time on the fifteen minute chart:

I've performed the Fibonacci study from the high of today at 504, until the current low at 483. The move down was pretty smooth, we can tell this by looking at the Awesome Oscillator, how all the bars during the downtrend were red, no interruption whatsoever, marked with an orange arrow.

Despite this, price has now stalled, putting restraint upon the bears, and for a number of key reasons.

1. Firstly, as mentioned above, 483 is actually today's low from twelve hours ago, i.e. price has already been there, so it makes it a natural point of support.

2. Not only is it today's low, it's also a Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 timeframe, :

"So to re-iterate, expect another test of 38.2% at 482 later today."

3. We also have the Stochastics now in oversold territory, with the K period now crossing above the D period, aiming to head north.

4. We have a candle (marked in a blue ellipse), that's a) a spinning top, and b) a bull candle that opened and closed below the lower Bollinger line, a very powerful reversal pattern.

As a result price has risen to the 23.6% Fib (on our M15 chart above), and we could see a rise to 38.2% in the short term. The only issue is the momentum of the Awesome Oscillator, until that turns green, it's hard to see price rising above 38.2%. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see another test of 483 within the next few candles.