BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 18th April 2014

Bitcoin is meandering between two key Fibonacci levels this morning, will the status quo continue?

Let's take a look at the latest BTC/USD chart on the H4 timeframe (click below to expand):

I’ve performed today's Fibonacci study from the low of the month at 343, until the high of the month at 545.

In yesterday's analysis on Bitcoin, I mentioned that, "The problem from a purely technical perspective is, there are conflicting signs on the higher timeframes, especially on the Daily. Hence this is one of the reasons why we are seeing such a fight between the bulls and the bears. The fight is likely to continue for some time yet." Indeed, this has continued to be the case, as I've outlined via the rectangular white box, which are actually the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels at 497 and 467 respectively.

Another piece of price action emerging from the white box is the multitude of candles possessing relatively long upper and lower wicks, no more apparent than the current candle in formation, which is right now a spinning top, one of many. All in all, it's clear that we're not seeing any clear direction, and with the Accelerator Oscillator in contrast to the Awesome Oscillator, it's a further sign of the conflicting nature of the market.

Bitcoin may well continue to fluctuate between 23.6% and 38.2% for the rest of the day, but if price can manage to break 38.2%, then I'd expect a drop to 443 at 50%, as I mentioned yesterday, "in the short term the bears will probably show greater strength". This holds true today, although I'm cautious due to the recent ranging price action.