BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 16th April 2014

Bitcoin rises as high as 545 this morning, but has retreated to around 500.

Let's take a closer look at the current BTC/USD H4 chart below (click to expand):

I've performed the Fibonacci study from the low of the month at 382, until the high of the month at 545.

I've also drawn an important red trendline which tells us how, despite the current bulls on Bitcoin, there was definitely a certain ceiling in place which is providing some resistance, as it's been tested on a number of occasions, circled in yellow. It's interesting to note that the last test of that red line happened when the candle was a) a very long candlestick in relation to the previous few, b) far exceeding the upper Bollinger band. At the same time we had the Accelerator Oscillator as red and consequently there very next candle closed as a bear candle.

Since then, we've seen less of a clear direction, with price dropping down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 483, circled in blue.

With the Stochastics heading down, along with the Accelerator Oscillator and Awesome Oscillator turning red, I expect we'll see another test of 23.6%. There's something peculiar concerning the motion of the Stochastics though, since, even though the K period has long since crossed the D period, the trajectory is very shallow, almost horizontal, this is often a sign of a weak trend, and I'd be surprised if there we going to be seeing much activity over the next few candles.