Recall that Englander previously warned of downward pressure on prices due to the USMS auction, also citing a perceived oversupply flooding the market. In the 3 weeks following the auction, bitcoin prices, already near the upper end of their mid-term trading range, remained largely flat, trading within a 10% band of the $620 level. Volume was well below average.
Thereafter until last week, prices have indeed declined. However, it is unlikely that they were hit by an oversupply arising from the auction, considering that the winner was Tim Draper, Bitcoin enthusiast and founder of the venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson. It is not impossible that anything resembling a transfer from his address would be heavily scrutinized in the Bitcoin world.
Following are some key points from Englander's recent report:
1. Miners
As mining costs rise, miners come under pressure to "sell their freshly unearthed bitcoin" to recoup the costs of their equipment investment.
Such an argument is akin to saying, "a rise in gold mining costs will cause gold miners to sell off their freshly unearthed gold..." We know this to not be the case. Mining costs have been skyrocketing for years, leaving many debt-laden miners in risky positions and with lower incomes, as reflected in their underperforming stock prices. Yet the price of gold has trended higher, even when accounting for a major correction last year. Based on any multi-year time horizon analysis, one cannot argue that prices have declined in sync.
The argument also doesn't account for the natural equilibrium of Bitcoin mining and prices, which suggests the opposite conclusion: if costs go up, fewer people mine, leading to a slower increase in supply. This provides upward pressure on prices, which trend toward making mining more profitable. While the model is not that simple, the "deflationary" nature of Bitcoin is well known.
2. Merchants
Merchants accepting the coin have it immediately converted to fiat, dumping it on the market and lowering prices.
What this argument ignores: for every seller (the merchant), there must have been a buyer (the consumer). Wouldn't the consumer's buying of bitcoins in the first place have pressured prices upward?
The above arguments carry more weight if we make the assumption that the bulk of Bitcoin-based commercial sales are driven by miners who never had to buy the coins. But data is needed to back this up...
3. Miners contribution to supply
The article quotes Mark Lamb, CEO of Coinfloor, as saying that miners sell an estimated 70-90% of their coins. Therefore, the article indicates, there is downward pressure on bitcoin prices.
Again, data is needed to verify not that miners sell most of their coins, but that miners constitute most of the market's sellers. Considering that over 100,000 BTC are traded daily around the world, the handful of BTC mined each day is negligible.
4. Large organizations and accounting rules
It is argued that large organizations are hesitant to hold on to bitcoins out of fear that they can't account for them as assets according to GAAP rules, due to their volatile nature.
Again, a lot of assumptions are made here. First, that the amount unloaded by organizations is enough to move the market. Second, that such GAAP considerations are enough to motivate them to dump shares at disadvantageous prices. Third, that such accounting considerations are even relevant and will make a tangible difference, such as when carrying a high level of debt.
5. For "love", not money
Consumers are spending the currency more for ideological reasons, "for love, not money". They do not necessarily experience financial benefit in doing so.
This argument has validity in many cases. An interesting open discussion, titled "Bitcoin is like a drug", took place here- offering a rare glimpse into how some Bitcoiners really feel deep down.
Fundamental evaluation
By the looks of it, the report was more qualitative than quantitative. A fundamental derivation for current prices, a quantitative analysis of how the said forces will affect them and a long-term price prediction were not cited in the Coindesk article.
Notwithstanding my above arguments, a qualitative analysis is a good starting point but would be far more convincing if accompanied by the math to back it up.
I, for one, don't know where Bitcoin prices are headed in the long term. My outlook is neither positive nor negative. I do see some major fundamental vulnerabilities, discussed previously and perhaps again in the future. Some of these have been naturally priced in by the market. While Citi's conclusion vis-à-vis long-term prices may be true, the approach taken in deriving such is fundamentally flawed.
Recall that Englander previously warned of downward pressure on prices due to the USMS auction, also citing a perceived oversupply flooding the market. In the 3 weeks following the auction, bitcoin prices, already near the upper end of their mid-term trading range, remained largely flat, trading within a 10% band of the $620 level. Volume was well below average.
Thereafter until last week, prices have indeed declined. However, it is unlikely that they were hit by an oversupply arising from the auction, considering that the winner was Tim Draper, Bitcoin enthusiast and founder of the venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson. It is not impossible that anything resembling a transfer from his address would be heavily scrutinized in the Bitcoin world.
Following are some key points from Englander's recent report:
1. Miners
As mining costs rise, miners come under pressure to "sell their freshly unearthed bitcoin" to recoup the costs of their equipment investment.
Such an argument is akin to saying, "a rise in gold mining costs will cause gold miners to sell off their freshly unearthed gold..." We know this to not be the case. Mining costs have been skyrocketing for years, leaving many debt-laden miners in risky positions and with lower incomes, as reflected in their underperforming stock prices. Yet the price of gold has trended higher, even when accounting for a major correction last year. Based on any multi-year time horizon analysis, one cannot argue that prices have declined in sync.
The argument also doesn't account for the natural equilibrium of Bitcoin mining and prices, which suggests the opposite conclusion: if costs go up, fewer people mine, leading to a slower increase in supply. This provides upward pressure on prices, which trend toward making mining more profitable. While the model is not that simple, the "deflationary" nature of Bitcoin is well known.
2. Merchants
Merchants accepting the coin have it immediately converted to fiat, dumping it on the market and lowering prices.
What this argument ignores: for every seller (the merchant), there must have been a buyer (the consumer). Wouldn't the consumer's buying of bitcoins in the first place have pressured prices upward?
The above arguments carry more weight if we make the assumption that the bulk of Bitcoin-based commercial sales are driven by miners who never had to buy the coins. But data is needed to back this up...
3. Miners contribution to supply
The article quotes Mark Lamb, CEO of Coinfloor, as saying that miners sell an estimated 70-90% of their coins. Therefore, the article indicates, there is downward pressure on bitcoin prices.
Again, data is needed to verify not that miners sell most of their coins, but that miners constitute most of the market's sellers. Considering that over 100,000 BTC are traded daily around the world, the handful of BTC mined each day is negligible.
4. Large organizations and accounting rules
It is argued that large organizations are hesitant to hold on to bitcoins out of fear that they can't account for them as assets according to GAAP rules, due to their volatile nature.
Again, a lot of assumptions are made here. First, that the amount unloaded by organizations is enough to move the market. Second, that such GAAP considerations are enough to motivate them to dump shares at disadvantageous prices. Third, that such accounting considerations are even relevant and will make a tangible difference, such as when carrying a high level of debt.
5. For "love", not money
Consumers are spending the currency more for ideological reasons, "for love, not money". They do not necessarily experience financial benefit in doing so.
This argument has validity in many cases. An interesting open discussion, titled "Bitcoin is like a drug", took place here- offering a rare glimpse into how some Bitcoiners really feel deep down.
Fundamental evaluation
By the looks of it, the report was more qualitative than quantitative. A fundamental derivation for current prices, a quantitative analysis of how the said forces will affect them and a long-term price prediction were not cited in the Coindesk article.
Notwithstanding my above arguments, a qualitative analysis is a good starting point but would be far more convincing if accompanied by the math to back it up.
I, for one, don't know where Bitcoin prices are headed in the long term. My outlook is neither positive nor negative. I do see some major fundamental vulnerabilities, discussed previously and perhaps again in the future. Some of these have been naturally priced in by the market. While Citi's conclusion vis-à-vis long-term prices may be true, the approach taken in deriving such is fundamentally flawed.
3rd Largest Bitcoin Miner on Wall Street Acquires Crypto Competitor for $93 Million
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Sherwan Zeybo | FXGT | Executive Interviews
Sherwan Zeybo | FXGT | Executive Interviews
Sherwan Zeybo | FXGT | Executive Interviews
Sherwan Zeybo | FXGT | Executive Interviews
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In this video, Sherwan Zeybo, Head of Business Development at @fxgtofficial , discusses the growth and development of the CFD broker since its inception in 2019. Starting with a small team, FXGT has expanded to over 280 employees and obtained multiple licenses across various jurisdictions. Sher highlights the broker's commitment to providing security, transparency, and a comprehensive trading environment for clients. Sherwan also mentions upcoming developments, including a new trading app and a web trading platform, as well as a copy trading and social trading platform.
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In this video, Sherwan Zeybo, Head of Business Development at @fxgtofficial , discusses the growth and development of the CFD broker since its inception in 2019. Starting with a small team, FXGT has expanded to over 280 employees and obtained multiple licenses across various jurisdictions. Sher highlights the broker's commitment to providing security, transparency, and a comprehensive trading environment for clients. Sherwan also mentions upcoming developments, including a new trading app and a web trading platform, as well as a copy trading and social trading platform.
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In this video, Sherwan Zeybo, Head of Business Development at @fxgtofficial , discusses the growth and development of the CFD broker since its inception in 2019. Starting with a small team, FXGT has expanded to over 280 employees and obtained multiple licenses across various jurisdictions. Sher highlights the broker's commitment to providing security, transparency, and a comprehensive trading environment for clients. Sherwan also mentions upcoming developments, including a new trading app and a web trading platform, as well as a copy trading and social trading platform.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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In our discussion with Rhonda K. Müller, CEO of Muinmos, during iFX EXPO International, she covered regulatory changes impacting the trading industry, particularly focusing on new frameworks like MICA and Dora. She highlights the positive effects of regulation, such as increased order and transparency, and predicts that these changes will ignite more competition in the crypto market. Rhonda also touches on the rising trend of prop trading and anticipates future regulations in this area to ensure legitimacy. Finally, she shares Mooz's commitment to digitization and connectivity, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions from investor protection to risk profiling.
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Tom Higgins | Gold-i
Tom Higgins | Gold-i
Tom Higgins | Gold-i
Tom Higgins | Gold-i
Tom Higgins | Gold-i
Tom Higgins | Gold-i
In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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In this interview, Tom Higgins, CEO of Gold-i, discusses the convergence of crypto and FX liquidity. He explains the challenges of accessing crypto liquidity and how different execution methods, such as iceberg orders, help manage large transactions. Tom addresses the impact of AI in trading, emphasizing its use in sentiment analysis and trading pattern recognition. He also talks about the significance of Bitcoin ETFs in boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets. Lastly, Tom outlines the growth and future plans for Gold-i, focusing on enhancing their Matrix Net technology and expanding their role in crypto liquidity aggregation.
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Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
Throwback to FMLS:23 | FMvoices
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
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FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ At the same time, it's a throwback to our very successful FMLS:23 and we want to give out a special thank you to everyone who took the time to talk to us during the busy hours of the expo!
Ugnė B., payabl.
Joe Pelley, ActivTrades
William Thomas, BVNK
Got FOMO? Register now and secure your spot to the most premium financial event of London 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/EmKzD?utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=FMvoices-FMLS23&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMvoices+FMLS23
#fmls24 #fmls24 #fmls #fmevents #London #networking #financesummit
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates.
Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24
FMvoices are here to confirm all the great things you've heard about our events ✨ #fmevents #fmls24