The price of BTC has often seen sustained increases through the last week of the year. Is this year different?
FM
Well, folks, it’s almost that time of year again. Q4 is drawing to a close, chestnuts are roasting on an open fire, and Bitcoin investors closely watching to see if Rudolph’s nose will flash red or green in the days leading up to the end of the year; after all, it could be time for a good ol' Bitcoin Santa Rally.
A “Santa Rally” or "Santa Claus Rally"--which actually is not, in fact, unique to Bitcoin or even cryptocurrency--is when there is a sustained increase during the price of an asset throughout the last week of December and into the first two trading days in January.
What causes "Santa Rallies" to happen?
Investopedia explains that there are several possible explanations for this phenomenon. One theory points to sentimental causes--that holiday cheer and holiday bonuses result in an injection of new capital into the market.
A more practical theory explains that the cause is likely the fact that institutional investors--who tend to be pessimistic--go on vacation around this time of year, leaving the markets to retail investors (while the cat’s away, the mice will play.)
This phenomenon is well-documented outside of the crypto world. Over 65% of Decembers since the 1960s have resulted in positive gains for shareholders. However, within the cryptosphere, which is just over ten years old, the phenomenon has also been observed.
For example, on December 1 of 2017, the price of BTC was roughly $10,840; by January 1, 2018, the price had risen to roughly $13,902 (though Bitcoin had risen to nearly $20,000 midway through the month, and a severe price crash followed soon after.) The year prior to that (2016), BTC was roughly $750 on December 1 and $970 on January 1, 2017. 2015 to 2016 also saw an increase from $360 to $430.
BTC 2016-2017
However, the Santa rally is not a guarantee--take, for example, last year. On December 1, 2018, BTC was hovering around $4,240; on January 1, it had fallen to $3,750, although the price had fallen as low as $3,200 in mid-December. Similarly, from 2013-2014, Bitcoin recovered from a mid-December crash to roughly $420 to $770 by the first of the year, though it had started the month at roughly $1,000.
What’s in store for this year?
An inflection point approaches
Last Monday, Bloomberg predicted that Bitcoin was approaching an “inflection point” as the price was continuing to fall toward the lower limit its Trading Envelope Indicator.
“The gauge smooths moving averages to map out higher and lower limits, with a break below the lower band potentially preceding a retreat similar to the one seen on Sept. 24, when the coin fell 12% in one day,” the article said. “A bounce off the lower limit, on the other hand, could signal support at that level and, possibly, a rally similar to the one seen on Oct. 25, when Bitcoin posted a 15% gain.”
Since that piece was posted, the price of Bitcoin has risen from roughly $7,280 to approximately $7,500 at press time. But where could it go from here?
Willy Woo: “on-chain momentum is crossing into bullish”
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo Tweeted on Saturday, December 7, that he has observed a trend reversal toward a more bullish sentiment in the price of BTC. Specifically, Woo wrote that “on-chain momentum is crossing into bullish,” and pointed toward the upcoming “halvening.”
On-chain momentum is crossing into bullish. Prep for halvening front running here on in. Can't say what this indicator is, as it's proprietary to @AdaptiveFund, but it tracks investor momentum. The bottom is mostly likely in, anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view. pic.twitter.com/WqiPRpweUv
“Halvening,” or “halving,” is a term that refers to the instances when BTC mining rewards are cut in half. On the Bitcoin network, halving happens regularly at preset intervals of every 210,000 blocks. This is built into the Bitcoin protocol; the next halvening is scheduled for May 14.
I only tweet when I'm at high confidence, else it erodes my rep.
While there’s not a direct correlation between halvenings and the price of BTC, increases in BTC’s valuation have often followed.
The most popular theory behind these price increases seem to be that fewer mining rewards result in less cryptocurrency is being mined. The increased scarcity that results from the decrease in mining drives the price of that cryptocurrency up. Therefore, if miners have less incentive to keep doing their work, less coins will be mined, and the coins that are mined will be more valuable.
“The 1000 whales that control 50% of all bitcoin don’t care about on-chain [transactions].”
However, entrepreneur Charles Fuchs tweeted in response to Woo that on-chain transactions only tell a part of the story: “the 1000 whales that control 50% of all bitcoin don’t care about on-chain [transactions],” he wrote.
The 1000 whales that control 50% of all bitcoin don’t care about on chain ????
In other words, the massive amounts of cryptocurrency that are traded off of the Bitcoin Blockchain often aren’t immediately reflected in the markets. Therefore, making observations and predictions of on-chain volume can only be effective to a certain extent.
Bearish opinions
However, according to cryptocurrency analyst Eric Thies, things aren’t looking up for Bitcoin. “$BTC is done for a while...short the corn,” he wrote on Twitter.
Yikes. I’m taking the hint this time guys.. $BTC is done for a while. This squashes some bullish sentiment i was feeling yesterday ....the purpose and reason I built this tool was to eliminate my emotion in analysis and it’s pretty clear I need to listen to it.
However, in response to a Tweet by @CredibleCrypto, Thies acknowledged that it’s possible that the sell signal will have disappeared by the end of the month.
Mitoshi Kaku, technical Analyst and Creator of The "Waves & Particles Trading System” at Ikagi, responded critically to this:
So you told everyone to short on a 1M candle signal, at the opening of the candle, even knowing that signal won’t be certain until the end of the month? Come on dude, you have a big following don’t mess with them like that! ?
Charles Hoskinson says “crypto is unstoppable”; Tom Lee sees possible positive motion from new money and China
But while a Santa Rally could yield some positive short-term results, what are experts saying about the long term?
Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Ethereum and the creator of Cardano, seems unabashedly bullish about what’s in store for cryptocurrency. “ We will see 10k btc again and welcome 100k,” he wrote last week. “Crypto is unstoppable. Crypto is the future.”
Bitcoin's price is going down? Remember everyone, after the FUD, news trading and manipulation clears out, we still have a global movement that's going to change the world. We will see 10k btc again and welcome 100k. Crypto is unstoppable. Crypto is the future pic.twitter.com/9vlgH4S7u2
However, Tom Lee, Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, also seems to be fairly confident about the future.
"I think bitcoin's weakness since July is understandable," he said recently to CNBC. “I don't think adoption has really grown since July and if you can't grow adoption, network effects don't take place and so bitcoin drifts lower. But does this change the 10-year, five-year, or even two-year outlook for bitcoin? I don't think so."
Lee noted that the increasing availability of institutional-grade investment products and services in crypto could bring new money into the space, and that China’s increased interest in blockchain technology could be good for the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
What are your thoughts about the year ahead for Bitcoin? Share them in the comments below.
Well, folks, it’s almost that time of year again. Q4 is drawing to a close, chestnuts are roasting on an open fire, and Bitcoin investors closely watching to see if Rudolph’s nose will flash red or green in the days leading up to the end of the year; after all, it could be time for a good ol' Bitcoin Santa Rally.
A “Santa Rally” or "Santa Claus Rally"--which actually is not, in fact, unique to Bitcoin or even cryptocurrency--is when there is a sustained increase during the price of an asset throughout the last week of December and into the first two trading days in January.
What causes "Santa Rallies" to happen?
Investopedia explains that there are several possible explanations for this phenomenon. One theory points to sentimental causes--that holiday cheer and holiday bonuses result in an injection of new capital into the market.
A more practical theory explains that the cause is likely the fact that institutional investors--who tend to be pessimistic--go on vacation around this time of year, leaving the markets to retail investors (while the cat’s away, the mice will play.)
This phenomenon is well-documented outside of the crypto world. Over 65% of Decembers since the 1960s have resulted in positive gains for shareholders. However, within the cryptosphere, which is just over ten years old, the phenomenon has also been observed.
For example, on December 1 of 2017, the price of BTC was roughly $10,840; by January 1, 2018, the price had risen to roughly $13,902 (though Bitcoin had risen to nearly $20,000 midway through the month, and a severe price crash followed soon after.) The year prior to that (2016), BTC was roughly $750 on December 1 and $970 on January 1, 2017. 2015 to 2016 also saw an increase from $360 to $430.
BTC 2016-2017
However, the Santa rally is not a guarantee--take, for example, last year. On December 1, 2018, BTC was hovering around $4,240; on January 1, it had fallen to $3,750, although the price had fallen as low as $3,200 in mid-December. Similarly, from 2013-2014, Bitcoin recovered from a mid-December crash to roughly $420 to $770 by the first of the year, though it had started the month at roughly $1,000.
What’s in store for this year?
An inflection point approaches
Last Monday, Bloomberg predicted that Bitcoin was approaching an “inflection point” as the price was continuing to fall toward the lower limit its Trading Envelope Indicator.
“The gauge smooths moving averages to map out higher and lower limits, with a break below the lower band potentially preceding a retreat similar to the one seen on Sept. 24, when the coin fell 12% in one day,” the article said. “A bounce off the lower limit, on the other hand, could signal support at that level and, possibly, a rally similar to the one seen on Oct. 25, when Bitcoin posted a 15% gain.”
Since that piece was posted, the price of Bitcoin has risen from roughly $7,280 to approximately $7,500 at press time. But where could it go from here?
Willy Woo: “on-chain momentum is crossing into bullish”
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo Tweeted on Saturday, December 7, that he has observed a trend reversal toward a more bullish sentiment in the price of BTC. Specifically, Woo wrote that “on-chain momentum is crossing into bullish,” and pointed toward the upcoming “halvening.”
On-chain momentum is crossing into bullish. Prep for halvening front running here on in. Can't say what this indicator is, as it's proprietary to @AdaptiveFund, but it tracks investor momentum. The bottom is mostly likely in, anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view. pic.twitter.com/WqiPRpweUv
“Halvening,” or “halving,” is a term that refers to the instances when BTC mining rewards are cut in half. On the Bitcoin network, halving happens regularly at preset intervals of every 210,000 blocks. This is built into the Bitcoin protocol; the next halvening is scheduled for May 14.
I only tweet when I'm at high confidence, else it erodes my rep.
While there’s not a direct correlation between halvenings and the price of BTC, increases in BTC’s valuation have often followed.
The most popular theory behind these price increases seem to be that fewer mining rewards result in less cryptocurrency is being mined. The increased scarcity that results from the decrease in mining drives the price of that cryptocurrency up. Therefore, if miners have less incentive to keep doing their work, less coins will be mined, and the coins that are mined will be more valuable.
“The 1000 whales that control 50% of all bitcoin don’t care about on-chain [transactions].”
However, entrepreneur Charles Fuchs tweeted in response to Woo that on-chain transactions only tell a part of the story: “the 1000 whales that control 50% of all bitcoin don’t care about on-chain [transactions],” he wrote.
The 1000 whales that control 50% of all bitcoin don’t care about on chain ????
In other words, the massive amounts of cryptocurrency that are traded off of the Bitcoin Blockchain often aren’t immediately reflected in the markets. Therefore, making observations and predictions of on-chain volume can only be effective to a certain extent.
Bearish opinions
However, according to cryptocurrency analyst Eric Thies, things aren’t looking up for Bitcoin. “$BTC is done for a while...short the corn,” he wrote on Twitter.
Yikes. I’m taking the hint this time guys.. $BTC is done for a while. This squashes some bullish sentiment i was feeling yesterday ....the purpose and reason I built this tool was to eliminate my emotion in analysis and it’s pretty clear I need to listen to it.
However, in response to a Tweet by @CredibleCrypto, Thies acknowledged that it’s possible that the sell signal will have disappeared by the end of the month.
Mitoshi Kaku, technical Analyst and Creator of The "Waves & Particles Trading System” at Ikagi, responded critically to this:
So you told everyone to short on a 1M candle signal, at the opening of the candle, even knowing that signal won’t be certain until the end of the month? Come on dude, you have a big following don’t mess with them like that! ?
Charles Hoskinson says “crypto is unstoppable”; Tom Lee sees possible positive motion from new money and China
But while a Santa Rally could yield some positive short-term results, what are experts saying about the long term?
Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Ethereum and the creator of Cardano, seems unabashedly bullish about what’s in store for cryptocurrency. “ We will see 10k btc again and welcome 100k,” he wrote last week. “Crypto is unstoppable. Crypto is the future.”
Bitcoin's price is going down? Remember everyone, after the FUD, news trading and manipulation clears out, we still have a global movement that's going to change the world. We will see 10k btc again and welcome 100k. Crypto is unstoppable. Crypto is the future pic.twitter.com/9vlgH4S7u2
However, Tom Lee, Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, also seems to be fairly confident about the future.
"I think bitcoin's weakness since July is understandable," he said recently to CNBC. “I don't think adoption has really grown since July and if you can't grow adoption, network effects don't take place and so bitcoin drifts lower. But does this change the 10-year, five-year, or even two-year outlook for bitcoin? I don't think so."
Lee noted that the increasing availability of institutional-grade investment products and services in crypto could bring new money into the space, and that China’s increased interest in blockchain technology could be good for the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
What are your thoughts about the year ahead for Bitcoin? Share them in the comments below.
Rachel is a self-taught crypto geek and a passionate writer. She believes in the power that the written word has to educate, connect and empower individuals to make positive and powerful financial choices. She is the Podcast Host and a Cryptocurrency Editor at Finance Magnates.
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This is Brendan at his frankest — sharp, grounded, and very clear about what changes are overdue.
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In this interview, Brendan explains the reasoning behind his position. He walks through the message he believes many firms avoid: that the current prop trading model is too dependent on fees, too loose on risk, and too confusing for retail audiences.
We discuss why he thinks the model grew fast, why it may run into walls, and what he believes is needed for a cleaner, more responsible version of prop trading.
This is Brendan at his frankest — sharp, grounded, and very clear about what changes are overdue.
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👉 Subscribe to Finance Magnates for more executive interviews, industry insights, and exclusive coverage from the world’s leading financial events.
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Recorded live at FMLS:25 London, this executive interview features Elina Pedersen, in conversation with Finance Magnates, following her company’s win for Best Connectivity 2025.
🔹In this wide-ranging discussion, Elina shares insights on:
🔹What winning a Finance Magnates award means for credibility and reputation
🔹How broker demand for stability and reliability is driving rapid growth
🔹The launch of a new trade server enabling flexible front-end integrations
🔹Why ultra-low latency must be proven with data, not buzzwords
🔹Common mistakes brokers make when scaling globally
🔹Educating the industry through a newly launched Dealers Academy
🔹Where AI fits into trading infrastructure and where it doesn’t
Elina explains why resilient back-end infrastructure, deep client partnerships, and disciplined focus are critical for brokers looking to scale sustainably in today’s competitive market.
🏆 Award Highlight: Best Connectivity 2025
👉 Subscribe to Finance Magnates for more executive interviews, industry insights, and exclusive coverage from the world’s leading financial events.
#FMLS25 #FinanceMagnates #BestConnectivity #TradingTechnology #UltraLowLatency #FinTech #Brokerage #ExecutiveInterview
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Watch the full review to see whether Blueberry’s trading setup aligns with your experience level, strategy, and risk tolerance.
📣 Stay up to date with the latest in finance and trading. Follow Finance Magnates for industry news, insights, and global event coverage.
Connect with us:
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#Blueberry #BlueberryMarkets #BrokerReview #ForexBroker #CFDTrading #OnlineTrading #FinanceMagnates #TradingPlatforms #MarketInsights
In this video, we take an in-depth look at @BlueberryMarketsForex , a forex and CFD broker operating since 2016, offering access to multiple trading platforms, over 1,000 instruments, and flexible account types for different trading styles.
We break down Blueberry’s regulatory structure, including its Australian Financial Services License (AFSL), as well as its authorisation and registrations in other jurisdictions. The review also covers supported platforms such as MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader, TradingView, Blueberry.X, and web-based trading.
You’ll learn about available instruments across forex, commodities, indices, share CFDs, and crypto CFDs, along with leverage options, minimum and maximum trade sizes, and how Blueberry structures its Standard and Raw accounts.
We also explain spreads, commissions, swap rates, swap-free account availability, funding and withdrawal methods, processing times, and what traders can expect from customer support and additional services.
Watch the full review to see whether Blueberry’s trading setup aligns with your experience level, strategy, and risk tolerance.
📣 Stay up to date with the latest in finance and trading. Follow Finance Magnates for industry news, insights, and global event coverage.
Connect with us:
🔗 LinkedIn: /financemagnates
👍 Facebook: /financemagnates
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates
🐦 X: https://x.com/financemagnates
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/tag/financemagnates
▶️ YouTube: /@financemagnates_official
#Blueberry #BlueberryMarkets #BrokerReview #ForexBroker #CFDTrading #OnlineTrading #FinanceMagnates #TradingPlatforms #MarketInsights
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- Managing growth across emerging markets
👉 Watch the full interview for fundamental insights into the future of trading in Africa.
#Exness #Forex #Trading #SouthAfrica #CapeTown #Finance #FinanceMagnates
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Filmed during the grand opening of Exness’s new Cape Town office, Alfonso sits down with Andrea Badiola Mateos from Finance Magnates to discuss:
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- What makes their trading product stand out
- Customer retention vs. acquisition strategies
- The role of local influencers
- Managing growth across emerging markets
👉 Watch the full interview for fundamental insights into the future of trading in Africa.
#Exness #Forex #Trading #SouthAfrica #CapeTown #Finance #FinanceMagnates
