When US-Israeli strikes on Iran began last weekend, local crypto activity did not explode in a rush for the exits. Instead, transaction volumes and flows on Iranian platforms fell sharply as authorities enforced sweeping internet restrictions and exchanges shifted into defensive operations.

TRM Lab's analysis shows that Iran’s largest exchange, Nobitex, recorded around $3 million more in combined inflows and outflows around the strikes. However, these movements remain within its historic operating range and likely reflect internal treasury shifts rather than capital flight.

Despite the escalating conflict in the region, crypto traders are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a financial lifeline in Iran. They are reportedly using it to hedge against domestic uncertainty and potential restrictions on the banking system.

Blackouts Choke Liquidity

Iran’s crypto slowdown begins with the internet switch. Connectivity reportedly fell by about 99% as the regime imposed severe restrictions, a playbook it used during the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict and earlier mass protests.

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Local exchanges also share key infrastructure, which magnified the shock. Wallex attributed a temporary outage to a power problem at the Asiatech data center, a facility Nobitex also uses in its hosting stack. That single point of failure underscores how physical dependencies can ripple across supposedly decentralized markets.

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Trading volumes between February 27 and March 1 fell by roughly 80%, matching both a retreat in risk appetite and simple inability to reach platforms in real time.

Nobitex Flows: Noise, Not a Bank Run

Against this backdrop, Nobitex’s wallets drew attention. TRM identified an extra $3 million in activity on February 28 versus the prior day, driven in part by an internal transfer on Polygon from a hot wallet to cold storage.

Analysts also flagged a separate cold storage movement of more than USD 35 million from a Nobitex hot wallet, but classified it as routine infrastructure liquidity management, not a sign of large-scale withdrawals.

Nobitex has reportedly processed around USD 5 billion in volume since the start of 2025, making it the central hub of Iran’s crypto market. In that light, the observed transfers sit within normal operational ranges, even if they occurred during a period of heightened geopolitical tension.

The exchange kept deposits and withdrawals open “to the extent possible” but warned clients to expect delays and shallower markets. Ramzinex paused crypto deposits and withdrawals while stressing that client assets sat in cold wallets, and Tabdeal switched to twice-daily batch withdrawals with warnings of delays of up to 24 hours. Last year, Nobitex was hit by a major hack that drained about $82 million from its wallets.

Meanwhile, Wallex suspended crypto withdrawals indefinitely as it cited infrastructure instability, while Aban Tether halted both crypto and rial withdrawals to contain outflows.

Central Bank Pulls the USDT Brake

The most consequential intervention came from Iran’s Central Bank. Under its direction, several exchanges, including Nobitex, Wallex, Bitpin and Tabdeal, temporarily suspended trading in the USDT–toman pair, the primary bridge between dollar-linked stablecoins and the rial.

USDT’s dollar peg and central role in local pricing likely motivated the move. By halting this pair, authorities slowed rapid repricing of the rial and limited the speed at which savers could rotate into dollar exposure via stablecoins.

TRM estimates that Iran-linked wallets have processed around USD 11 billion in crypto since the beginning of 2025, placing the country among the larger national markets by on-chain volume.